Area Forecast Discussion
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909 FXUS62 KTAE 291855 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 255 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]... Abundant tropical moisture remains in place across the forecast area this afternoon. While the rain has not been widespread, it has been locally heavy with up to 5 inches falling in a corridor from Camilla to Albany this morning. Through tonight, a weak shortwave will cross the region and begin to push the deeper moisture south and east of the forecast area. This should lead to diminishing rain chances as the night goes on. Until that time, there is still some risk for isolated heavy rain, so will allow the Flash Flood Watch to continue until 00Z this evening. .Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high for this time of year, especially further to the south and east across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30% over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle to upper 60s. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower 80s. && .Aviation... [through 18Z Tuesday] MVFR conditions occurring at most terminals early this afternoon. Main exception is KECP which still has IFR cigs. Expect MVFR to occasional IFR conditions to continue through the afternoon before IFR cigs settle in at all terminals this evening for the overnight hours. Conditions will be slow to improve on Tuesday, with MVFR conditions not expected until late morning. && .Marine... Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday. && .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few days. && .Hydrology... With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and streams. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 69 85 69 89 71 / 60 20 20 30 20 Panama City 70 84 72 87 74 / 40 20 10 20 10 Dothan 65 85 66 89 68 / 40 10 10 10 10 Albany 65 85 66 89 69 / 50 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 67 85 67 89 68 / 70 20 10 20 20 Cross City 70 85 69 88 68 / 60 40 20 40 20 Apalachicola 71 83 73 85 74 / 50 30 20 30 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla- Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf- Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette- Leon-Liberty-Madison. High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Franklin. GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin- Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...GOULD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.