Area Forecast Discussion
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755 FXUS62 KTAE 230102 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 902 PM EDT Tue Apr 22 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Made a few updates to the inherited forecast to reflect current forecast thinking. A weak cold front will slowly continue to move southeastward overnight before stalling out in our far southern CWA early tomorrow morning. There are ongoing showers ahead of the frontal boundary over our northern Georgia and Alabama counties, but due to lack of forcing expect a diminishing trend as they move further south. Hires guidance, such as the HRRR and locally run WRFS, and recent radar trends support this notion. Therefore expect showers ending shortly after midnight before they reach the Florida border. Beginning in the early morning hours before sunrise expect patchy fog to develop throughout the CWA. The greatest chance of seeing more widespread fog exists from Tallahassee westward into the Florida Panhandle during this aforementioned time frame. Otherwise expect a partly cloudy night with lows bottoming out in the upper 50s, except along the immediate coast which will be in the lower 60s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Thursday]...VFR conditions prevail at TAF issuance time, with some higher ceilings at the northern terminals of DHN and ABY with some scattered SHRA. The SHRA should diminish quickly between 00z and 03z this evening, although some mid-level cloud cover may linger further north. Models indicate the development of some areas of low CIGS and fog overnight - particularly between 07z and 12z - with IFR or briefly LIFR VIS possible. Confidence is higher in this occurring at TLH, ECP, and VLD. VFR expected again tomorrow after the fog dissipates, with an afternoon sea breeze wind shift at ECP.
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&& .Prev Discussion [205 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... The mid/upper level local pattern begins with shortwave trough well into Atlc replaced by amplified ridging...rising heights and subsidence. At surface...remnants of Tuesday`s cold front limps into our SE Big Bend Swwd into our Nrn marine area. In its wake...area model soundings show flow sfc-upper levels NWLY however with proximity of front...PWATS remain around 1 inch. During the rest of the period...local ridge amplifies into Thurs ahead of upstream trough/low developing over Wrn states. By aftn... this low pivots Newd resulting in Ern ridge flattening yielding near zonal flow. At surface...increasingly diffuse front lingers in place before likely lifting Nwd late Wed into Thurs as high develops over NE Gulf and...along with ridge across Nrn Gulf Coast...remains established into Thurs night. The combination of strong mid/upper subsidence and weakening front south will yield partly to mostly sunny skies. The lifting front will shift local winds to onshore on Thurs with rising humidity as reflected in model PWATS which remain around 1 inch. So it will feel muggy. With very dry mid/upper levels...at best isold POPs near the front. Temperatures will be near climatology through the period, with lows in the 50s and highs in the lower to mid 80s. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... On Friday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the Great Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the parent low moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens. Southerly flow off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight chance of thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area Friday through Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly surface flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during the day. At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a very amplified pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough digging down over the southern Plains. While these models differ some in timing and structure, they both show a blocking pattern emerging with a strong upper ridge in the west and an amplified deep trough in the east. This system should be our best chance of seeing showers and thunderstorms in the extended period. .Marine... Despite the front approaching from the north into tonight, then stalling across extreme North FL through Thursday, winds and seas on the whole will remain quite low. The exception will be a moderate increase in onshore winds and chop near the coast each afternoon because of the daily sea breeze. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected through the remainder of the week. .Hydrology... Most of our area rivers are above normal stage with many in flood stage. The Choctawhatchee at Bruce is at major flood stage, several others are in moderate. Most area rivers will crest soon or have already crested. The exception is the Suwannee River chich will rise slowly for the remainder of the week. Rainfall amounts are expected to be less than 0.25 inch and will have little impact on area river levels. The most up-to-date river forecast information can always be found on our AHPS page (below). http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 58 83 58 82 61 / 10 0 0 10 0 Panama City 61 78 63 75 64 / 10 0 0 10 0 Dothan 58 83 57 83 61 / 40 0 0 10 10 Albany 56 83 56 83 60 / 50 0 0 20 10 Valdosta 57 84 59 83 60 / 30 10 10 20 0 Cross City 60 83 59 82 59 / 10 10 10 20 0 Apalachicola 62 76 63 74 63 / 10 0 0 10 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...NAVARRO/GOULD SHORT TERM...BLOCK LONG TERM...BLOCK AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...BLOCK FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...BOLDEN

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