Area Forecast Discussion
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259
FXUS62 KTAE 190721
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
321 AM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A shortwave will pass through northern Georgia this morning with
models showing a secondary impulse moving across central AL into
central GA this afternoon/evening. The NAM solution shows deeper
moisture over the area and is a little more robust with the trailing
impulse than the GFS solution. This is also reflected in the MOS PoP
guidance with the MET as much as 40% higher than the MAV for some of
our forecast points. The locally run CAM guidance also supports the
higher PoPs. The mean flow continues to be moderate from the west
and based on convective coverage on Monday, will lean close to the
NAM solution which shows likely PoPs for all but the Florida coastal
areas and SE Big Bend (20-40%). Also as we saw on Monday, a few
storms may be strong to briefly severe. Despite the above climo
PoPs, the westerly low-level flow will support temperatures in the
mid 90s this afternoon.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Mid-level heights will be on the rise for Wednesday and Thursday
as the eastern U.S. trough slides offshore and a ridge builds over
the Central Gulf Coast. As the low/mid-level ridge builds west of
the forecast area, the low-level flow will become west-
northwesterly for Wednesday and northerly for Thursday. With
weakening upper support and less favorable flow for seabreeze
convection, expect decreasing PoPs through Thursday, especially for
inland areas.

The building ridge will also lead to some hot temperatures. Expect
highs to reach the mid 90s on Wednesday, with upper 90s to near
100 degrees possible on Thursday. Heat indices may rise above 105
in a few areas by Thursday.


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
An upper level ridge is expected to build northward from the Gulf
across the southeast states through the period. With deep layer
ridging acting to suppress afternoon convection, PoPs are forecast
to be slightly below average through the period with temperatures
above average. The main driver for convection will be the sea
breeze with isolated to scattered coverage expected.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Wednesday] We should see patchy fog develop towards
daybreak with MVFR vsbys and or cigs at most terminals. Then, look
for another active day with numerous showers/TSTMS by this
afternoon. The convection should briefly impact all terminals but
difficult to pin timing down so left VCTS at each site starting at
or after 18z.

&&

.Marine...
Light to moderate west-southwest flow will continue through
Wednesday before high pressure builds over the waters and winds
and seas diminish through the end of the week. Conditions are
forecast to remain below headline criteria through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Normal summer conditions through the week will mean plentiful
moisture, preventing red flag criteria from being met.

&&

.Hydrology...
Significant flooding is not expected over the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  75  96  75  99 /  60  30  40  20  30
Panama City   94  78  93  78  93 /  30  20  30  20  30
Dothan        94  74  95  74  98 /  70  30  30  30  10
Albany        95  73  97  75  99 /  60  30  30  20  10
Valdosta      96  73  96  74  98 /  60  30  30  20  20
Cross City    94  75  94  74  96 /  20  10  40  20  20
Apalachicola  92  77  93  76  93 /  30  10  30  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...DVD







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