Area Forecast Discussion
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439
FXUS62 KTAE 171932
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
332 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GA/AL/MS BEING
FORCED BY A WEAK SHORTWAVE SEEN CLEARLY ON WV IMAGERY WILL CONTINUE
TO DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. ANOTHER AREA OF
SHOWERS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST IS BEING FORCED IN THE LOW-
LEVELS ALONG A WARM FRONT. AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS WEAKEN TONIGHT, SO
SHOULD THIS AREA OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST, THOUGH REMNANT LIGHT RAIN
SHOULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY EAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION BEFORE
DISSIPATING LATE TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE
RAIN.


.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WITH AN ACTIVE SUB-TROPICAL JET OVERHEAD, COMBINED WITH
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERN STREAM, RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY WILL SEE A
CONTINUATION OF OUR CURRENT PATTERN WITH HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS A PERSISTENT CUT-OFF LOW,
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION, EJECTS EASTWARD
TODAY A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER-LOW ON
SATURDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH WEAK, CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
OVER ARKLATEX REGION AND HELP DEVELOP A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL
PUSH THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FINALLY RETURNING TO OUR REGION,
WE ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE RAIN AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND. WITH WEAK LAPSE-RATES, UN-IMPRESSIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES, SEVERE CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER,
GUSTY WINDS IN INDIVIDUAL STORMS COULD BE EXPERIENCED WITH SOME
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD SEE 0.5-1.0 INCHES
OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH HIGHER THAN NORMAL PWAT VALUES,
ISOLATED LOCATIONS COULD RECEIVE HIGHER TOTALS APPROACHING 3-4
INCHES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR-TO-BELOW AVERAGE WITH CLOUDY SKIES
AND DECENT CHANCES FOR RAIN.

.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...

WE WILL FINALLY SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM THE CURRENT UNSETTLED PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM. AFTER SUNDAY
NIGHT`S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, SOME DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LOOK MOSTLY RAIN-FREE FOR OUR
AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EASTWARDS AND TO OUR NORTH. WITH
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED , THE DRY AIR WILL NOT STAY
LONG AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.
AFTER THURSDAY POPS WILL ELEVATED, BUT A WIDESPREAD SOAKING SIMILAR
THIS THIS PAST WEEK IS NOT EXPECTED AND SHOWERS SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE
DIURNAL AND RANDOM TREND WITHOUT A DEFINED SYNOPTIC FORCING
MECHANISMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY]

EXPECT NO BETTER THAN MVFR CEILINGS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.
IFR CEILINGS AT DHN MAY TEMPORARILY LIFT TO MVFR IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. BEHIND AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING EAST THROUGH THE REGION,
CEILINGS WILL FALL TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LIFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL, BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER WRT FOG. FOR NOW, IFR VISIBILITIES ARE ADVERTISED.
CEILINGS WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER TOMORROW MORNING.&&

.MARINE...

LOW WINDS AND SEAS WILL REIGN OVER AREA WATERS THROUGH
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. ON SUNDAY WINDS AND SEAS WILL ELEVATE
AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAUTIONARY WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER BELOW
CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS AND LIKELY REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD BEGINNING MONDAY MORNING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A CLOUDY AND RAINY WEEK IS IN STORE FOR THE AREA WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES REMAINING ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. NO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RECENT HEAVY RAINS HAVE RESULTED THE FOLLOWING RIVERS REACHING
ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGES: OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT THOMASVILLE,
APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER.
HOWEVER, NON OF THESE RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO REACH FLOOD STAGE IN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WE EXPECT ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE
RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL
BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT
MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE
RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION STAGE NEXT WEEK.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   68  83  68  80  65 /  50  50  40  50  40
PANAMA CITY   70  78  71  77  70 /  30  50  50  60  40
DOTHAN        65  79  66  77  65 /  50  50  60  70  40
ALBANY        64  79  66  79  64 /  70  40  60  60  40
VALDOSTA      66  83  68  81  65 /  70  40  30  50  40
CROSS CITY    68  82  68  82  67 /  30  40  20  50  40
APALACHICOLA  72  79  73  77  71 /  30  40  40  60  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...DVD/DOBBS
LONG TERM...DVD/DOBBS
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...DVD/DOBBS
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WESTON



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