Area Forecast Discussion
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822
FXUS62 KTAE 221356
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
956 AM EDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The morning sounding from Tallahassee showed a PWAT of 0.42
inches, which is very close to the 10th percentile for the 2 week
period centered on October 22nd (0.47"). In other words, the
moisture content in the atmosphere is anomalously low for this
time of year, and that means another day of dry weather and sunny
skies. In fact, 18 of the 21 days so far in October have seen no
measurable precipitation at TLH, and we should add another today.
Despite that, rainfall for the month is still above normal thanks
to the 4.72" of rain that fell back on the 14th. High temperatures
today should be cooler than yesterday as a surface high pressure
builds south into the region. Highs should be mostly in the 70s,
with a few highs around 80 possible in our Florida zones.

&&

.Prev Discussion [234 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

In general, an upper level trough will dominate the Southeast
through Friday. The only exception will be a brief period of
nearly zonal flow on Thursday. At the surface, high pressure will
prevail, albeit weak. Dry air aloft, and northerly low-layer flow
will preclude any rain chances. Afternoon highs will remain a few
degrees below average, in the middle to upper 70s. More noticeable,
overnight lows will run about 10 degrees below average, dipping
into the middle 40s each night.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

The dry pattern is expected to continue through the extended. Mean
upper level troughing along the east coast is expected to keep
deep moisture from returning to the area. Late in the period, the
pattern may start to change with a ridge building off the east
coast. However, no significant systems are expected to affect the
area for the next several days with PoPs below 20 percent.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Thursday]

VFR conditions with light northeasterly winds will prevail
through the forecast period.


.Marine...

On-and-off cautionary level winds should be expected for the next
several days as high pressure builds south into the northern Gulf,
with winds increasing between it and newly formed TD 9 currently
in the Bay of Campeche.


.Fire Weather...

A drier airmass will move into the region today in the wake of a dry
cold front. At this time, humidity values are forecast to remain
above critical levels, with no fire weather concerns expected.


.Hydrology...

No rain is expected over the next 5 to 7 days. Subsequently, there
will be no hydrological concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  44  77  44  79 /   0   0   0  10   0
Panama City   79  53  76  53  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Dothan        75  44  75  45  75 /   0   0   0  10   0
Albany        74  43  76  44  78 /   0   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      77  44  75  44  77 /   0   0   0  10   0
Cross City    81  45  79  45  80 /   0   0   0  10   0
Apalachicola  79  53  75  53  76 /   0   0   0  10   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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