Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
333 FXUS62 KTAE 290818 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 418 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
After a busy Monday evening, conditions look much quieter today in the wake of the cold front with drier air settling in over most of the area. The front will still be north of the southeast big bend region this morning with a few showers and thunderstorms still possible ahead of it, but by this afternoon it should be through even that area. High temperatures will still be seasonably warm across the area, but much lower dewpoints will make it feel less oppressive than in recent day.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
-- Changed Discussion --
Behind the squall line which moved through the region on Monday and Sfc Cold Front which is pushing through today, extremely dry air for this time of year will be building in from the NW today and tonight, with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. After a recent string of very humid and uncomfortable nights, this dry air will allow low temperatures to fall into the far more comfortable lower to middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and Wednesday night, with the potential for some record or near record low temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or storm, but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid to upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases). .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]... There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help enhance diurnal convection. Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area. Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s. Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper 80s and lower 90s.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 06z Wednesday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period in the wake of a cold front with a drier airmass.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon, much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder of the period.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do not look likely.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
Flooding is not expected for the next several days.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 94 65 94 65 94 / 10 0 0 10 10 Panama City 91 72 91 72 90 / 0 0 0 0 10 Dothan 91 63 90 64 93 / 0 0 0 10 10 Albany 92 64 92 66 94 / 0 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 93 64 95 67 95 / 0 0 0 10 10 Cross City 94 67 94 66 94 / 20 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 92 72 91 72 89 / 10 0 0 0 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...DVD MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.