Area Forecast Discussion
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195 FXUS62 KTAE 311836 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 236 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Although we are finally starting to see some convection developing along the sea breeze front over the FL panhandle and a few showers and storms beginning to flare up across parts of SW and SC GA, elsewhere across the region, the CU field has been fairly unimpressive thus far. Believe this is due to the rapid influx of mid-upper level dry air that is advecting in rapidly from the east. Therefore, did lower PoPs across the board to generally 20-30% for this afternoon, and mainly 20%s for tonight (except for a small sliver of 30-40% PoPs across far eastern portions of the CWA this evening). As for low temps, yet another warm and humid night is expected across the CWA, with minimums mainly in the mid to upper 70s. .Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... Upper level ridging will remain in place for the period. With weak flow and no large scale forcing, sea breeze processes will dominate bringing near normal chances of rain. PoPs will be in the 20-40 range with higher values to the east. With high pressure in place, max temps will be in the mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The start of the period will be dominated by a ridge in place over the Southeast with normal chances of rain. Tropical moisture off the east coast of Florida will bring higher rain chances starting Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Monday] VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast period. Light winds will be mostly southerly. A shower or thunderstorm is not completely out of the question especially at ECP.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds will be from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots. Wave heights will be 2 to 4 feet tonight becoming 1 to 3 feet for the rest of the period. Surf heights will generally be 1 to 2 feet with rip currents possible.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Afternoon Relative humidities will remain above critical levels for the next several days with no fire weather concerns in the foreseeable future.
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&& .Hydrology...
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River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 74 94 73 94 72 / 20 30 20 40 20 Panama City 78 90 77 91 76 / 20 20 10 30 20 Dothan 72 95 72 95 72 / 20 20 10 30 20 Albany 72 96 72 95 72 / 20 20 20 40 20 Valdosta 73 94 71 94 70 / 40 40 20 40 20 Cross City 74 92 72 93 71 / 20 30 20 30 20 Apalachicola 77 90 76 90 75 / 20 20 10 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for Coastal Bay-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...WESTON LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...WESTON FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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