Area Forecast Discussion
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216 FXUS62 KTAE 290741 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 341 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S (WITH SOME PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE ALONG THE SUWANNEE VALLEY), TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S BY THE END OF THE DAY TODAY WHICH IS STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO. SKIES SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME PASSING MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS FROM TIME TO TIME. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]... A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW IN THE GREAT LAKES WILL PASS THROUGH ON MONDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA. A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL LINGER ON TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL STILL BE BELOW AVERAGE RANGING FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S EAST TO WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE WITH UPPER 70S EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. .LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]... A RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HOWEVER...MOISTURE FROM THE FRONT ON MONDY WILL LINGER WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL AVERAGES WITH LOWS NEAR 60 AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 06Z MONDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE ENTIRE FCST, WITH ONLY SOME PERIODS OF MID LEVEL CIGS MAINLY AT DHN AND ABY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALSO BE IN THE FCST THAN DURING THE PAST 2 DAYS. FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CALM TO NEAR CALM WINDS.
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&& .MARINE...
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EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL VEER STARTING ON MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FEET OR LESS FOR THE PERIOD.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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DESPITE THE COOL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES, THE AIR MASS WAS INDEED DRY ENOUGH TO VERIFY THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR WAKULLA COUNTY IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ON SATURDAY. FOR TODAY, WITH FORECAST ERCS OF 37 FOR BOTH LEON AND WAKULLA COUNTIES, AND 4-5 HOUR DURATIONS OF SUB 28 PERCENT RH, HAVE UPGRADED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO A RED FLAG WARNING. BY MONDAY AND THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GRADUALLY ON THE INCREASE.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RAIN TOTALS WITH THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH RIVERS BELOW FLOOD STAGE, THERE ARE NO FLOODING CONCERNS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 67 44 78 58 80 / 0 10 20 20 30 PANAMA CITY 65 56 74 63 75 / 0 10 20 20 30 DOTHAN 65 50 78 57 78 / 0 10 40 20 30 ALBANY 64 46 77 54 77 / 0 10 40 20 30 VALDOSTA 65 42 76 54 78 / 0 10 20 20 30 CROSS CITY 68 40 76 56 81 / 0 0 10 20 20 APALACHICOLA 65 54 75 64 77 / 0 0 10 20 20
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL WAKULLA-INLAND WAKULLA-LEON. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...WESTON LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...WESTON FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...WESTON

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