Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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588 FXUS62 KTAE 190853 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 453 AM EDT SUN APR 19 2015 ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY... .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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AN AREA OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS SUNDAY MORNING OVER OUR CWA. LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF NEW ORLEANS WILL PUSH FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE AND SPC HAS THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE REGION HIGHLIGHTED FOR SLIGHT RISK. THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, ALTHOUGH HAIL AROUND 1" IN DIAMETER AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CAN ALSO NOT BE RULED OUT. ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1- 2", WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED AREAS RECEIVING 3-6" OF RAIN, WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH WATCH WATCH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT THE VALDOSTA REGION AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA BIG BEND. POPS WILL BE NEAR 100% ALL ZONES TODAY. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]... OUR AREA SHOULD SEE A LULL IN CONVECTION TONIGHT WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND A DEPARTING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM, AND LARGE SCALE 800-300MB QG DIVERGENCE (ALSO IMPLYING SUBSIDENCE) BETWEEN 00 UTC AND 12 UTC. WE MAINTAINED A 15 PERCENT "SLIGHT CHANCE" OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AS A FEW MODELS DO DEPICT SOME LIGHT QPF, BUT THAT MAY BE GENEROUS. LOOKING AHEAD TO MONDAY, THE SYNOPTIC SURFACE COLD FRONT ARRIVES AND THE FORCING APPEARS STRONGER ON THE 00Z SET OF MODEL RUNS THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE NAM AND GFS BOTH INDICATE SOME QPF DURING THE DAYTIME ON MONDAY AS WEAK-MODERATE QG CONVERGENCE DEVELOPS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 140KT UPPER LEVEL JET. IT DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WOULD LIKELY BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED - MORE ISOLATED THAN TODAY. ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WOULD BE ON THE CUSP OF A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WHICH WOULD LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WHEN COMBINED WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE WITHIN THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE A POTENTIAL HAZARD, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD THEN QUICKLY COME TO AN END MONDAY NIGHT AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION ON MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT, A RELATIVELY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY PUSHING INTO THE MID 80S. LOWS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COOLER, BUT STILL AROUND 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGHS ON TUESDAY NEAR NORMAL (80 DEGREES). .LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]... HIGH PRESSURE ON WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO A DRY DAY OVERALL, WILL QUICKLY ERODE WITH RAIN CHANCES RETURNING FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN PLACED ON SATURDAY, WHERE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ON SOME HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HIGHS LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL (LOW-MID 80S), WITH LOWS CONTINUING TO BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (60S).
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER INTO MVFR TO IFR RANGE AT ALL TAF SITES BY DAYBREAK. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ECP-DHN CORRIDOR AROUND SUNRISE AND PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL TERMINALS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.
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&& .MARINE...
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SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING, AND THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONGST RAW MODEL GUIDANCE TO PUT WINDS IN THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS. A SCEC HEADLINE WAS ADDED TO THE FORECAST, AND ONE COULD BE NEEDED INTO MONDAY. AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS, SURF HEIGHTS SHOULD BE AROUND 3 FEET TODAY AND MONDAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WAS POSTED FOR WALTON, BAY, AND GULF COUNTIES.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RAINFALL THIS WEEK HAS RESULTED IN A RISE OF AREA RIVERS WITH MANY REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER IS FORECAST TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT CARYVILLE LATER TODAY AND AT BRUCE ON MONDAY. WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN EXPECTED TODAY, AND ISOLATED TOTALS OF 3-6" POSSIBLE, OTHER RIVERS MAY APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE THIS WEEK AND FLASH FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 82 69 85 62 81 / 100 20 30 20 10 PANAMA CITY 79 73 79 64 76 / 100 20 20 10 10 DOTHAN 80 68 83 58 77 / 100 20 30 10 10 ALBANY 77 67 83 58 78 / 100 20 30 20 10 VALDOSTA 80 68 86 61 78 / 100 20 30 20 10 CROSS CITY 83 70 83 63 82 / 100 20 40 20 10 APALACHICOLA 80 73 81 66 77 / 100 20 20 20 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CENTRAL WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-COASTAL WAKULLA-GADSDEN-HOLMES-INLAND BAY-INLAND FRANKLIN-INLAND GULF-INLAND WAKULLA-JACKSON-LEON-LIBERTY-NORTH WALTON-SOUTH WALTON-WASHINGTON. HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY- COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON. GA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR BAKER-BEN HILL- CALHOUN-CLAY-COLQUITT-DECATUR-DOUGHERTY-EARLY-GRADY-IRWIN- LEE-MILLER-MITCHELL-QUITMAN-RANDOLPH-SEMINOLE-TERRELL- THOMAS-TIFT-TURNER-WORTH. AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COFFEE-DALE-GENEVA- HENRY-HOUSTON. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...BARRY SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...BARRY MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...WESTON/MOORE

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