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263 FXUS62 KTAE 160032 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 832 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Just made a few tweaks to the current forecast. The cold front has passed through our area and is currently traversing through north central Florida. Drier and cooler air will continue to advect further south and east overnight giving way to an unseasonably cool night. The remnant cloud deck over the eastern Florida Big Bend should mix out in the next couple hours leading to clear skies overnight. Although we will have clear skies, the winds won`t go calm overnight preventing optimal radiational cooling conditions. Therefore lows will bottom out in the mid to upper 30s north and west of a line extending from Tallahassee to Valdosta, and lower 40s south and east of the aforementioned line.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday]... Skies will continue to clear from west to east with all but some thin high clouds across the area by 03Z. Gusty northwest winds will veer to northeast and decrease to less than 10kts all terminals by 06Z. Winds will increase from the east after 15Z and gradually diminish again after 20Z.
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&& .Prev Discussion [342 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... A ridge of high pressure and a briefly drier air mass will control the regional weather through Wednesday evening with mostly sunny skies. The morning hours are likely to be quite chilly, but by afternoon we should warm into the 60s to perhaps around 70 degrees in the Florida Big Bend. The surface high pressure ridge will erode quickly from early Thursday morning onward. Easterly boundary layer flow and increasing moisture should lead to gradually increasing chances of rain showers, although PoPs through the entire period are below 50%. With a slight amount of instability Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, we included isolated thunderstorm wording in those periods as well. There are still significant differences between various models on the possible development of a surface low in the Gulf associated with a digging shortwave trough on Thursday. For now, we have adopted a consensus approach that reflects gradually increasing easterly flow and chances of rain showers. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... Both the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement showing a low over the Gulf phasing with a trough extending down from the Great Lakes on Friday. This will kick off another round of showers and storms through Friday evening. Ridging settles in by Saturday and temperatures begin to trend towards climo. On Monday, zonal flow brings another weak system north of our CWA but it appears there will only be a slight chance of rain with this system. .Marine... N-NW flow 20-25 knots will continue through the night, and gradually veer to the NE before diminishing on Wednesday morning. After that, an extended period of easterly flow will set up for the rest of the week with periodic SCEC or perhaps brief advisory level winds - especially at night. .Fire Weather... Although much drier air will push into the region from the northwest tonight and Wednesday, soil moisture will be very high due to the widespread heavy rainfall which fell during the past 24 hours. Additionally, high temperatures on Wednesday are not expected to be warm enough for relative humidities to reach critical levels. Thereafter, a gradual warming and moistening trend is expected with no fire weather concerns for the next several days. .Hydrology... A band of heavy rain set up across the Florida Panhandle overnight. Many areas in Florida got 2 to 3 inches of rain overnight and this morning, with isolated amounts of 4 to 5 inches. The Georgia and Alabama counties got less rain, 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 2 to 3 inches. The Chipola River near Altha is rising quickly and will likely crest in moderate flood stage. The St. Marks River near Newport is also rising quickly and will also likely crest in moderate flood stage. Moderate flooding is occurring along the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce. Otherwise where flooding was occurring it was generally in minor flood stage. Many rivers will stay elevated through the week. Next chance for rain is Friday. Rain totals Friday are expected to be around half an inch. The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be found on the AHPS page at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 40 71 48 73 59 / 0 0 10 30 40 Panama City 43 69 53 73 61 / 0 0 10 30 40 Dothan 36 67 45 71 56 / 0 0 10 20 30 Albany 37 67 44 71 55 / 0 0 10 20 30 Valdosta 40 69 48 72 58 / 0 0 20 30 40 Cross City 42 72 52 77 60 / 0 0 20 30 50 Apalachicola 43 68 54 71 64 / 0 0 20 30 40
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ Wednesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...NAVARRO/FOURNIER SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS/WALSH AVIATION...HOLLINGSWORTH MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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