Area Forecast Discussion
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944
FXUS62 KTAE 300104
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

...Expect Noticeably Drier and Cooler Conditions Overnight...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The large scale pattern is highly amplified marked by ridge over
much of Wrn 2/3rd of Conus...and trough digging over Ern third into
Wrn Atlc with axis along Ern seaboard. At surface, cool front
across Nrn most Gulf waters extending Wwd to TX Coast. Locally
this translates to NNW flow surface to aloft and in wake of front
noticeably drier and cooler airmass with dew points running 10-15
degrees drier than same time yesterday. Dry air mixing down has
dropped mid evening dew points at or sightly below 60 degrees
especially over GA/AL counties.

Light winds and dry air will favor clear skies overnight and lead to
record or near record low temperatures at some area sites. Expect
lows from the low 60s Nrn most areas to mid 60s elsewhere, except
near 70 at the coast. The following are forecast and record lows for
July 30th. Please note that except for Tallahassee and Apalachicola,
all stations have at least one missing year of data so its possible
these values are not the most accurate.


   SITE              Forecast Low       Record Low
TALLAHASSEE              66                 67 1927
VALDOSTA                 63                 66 1954
CROSS CITY               66                 65 1949
APALACHICOLA             70                 67 1984

For example, if the low at Tallahassee drops to our forecast of 66
degrees, it would be a new record low by one degree.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...No precipitation is expected during the TAF
period with limited cloud cover. VFR conditions will prevail with
light winds.

&&

.Prev Discussion [233 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the
region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle
well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through
Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above
seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will
make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the
cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the
mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally
be in the upper 60s to around 70.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS
will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and
early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local
region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the
extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough
will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a
quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through
the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along
with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near
or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70.
Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.


.Marine...

Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return
to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week.


.Fire Weather...

RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon.
However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach
Red Flag levels at this time.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   66  93  65  94  69 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   71  89  72  90  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        63  89  65  93  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        64  91  66  94  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      63  94  67  94  70 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    66  93  67  93  71 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  70  90  72  89  71 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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