Area Forecast Discussion
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453
FXUS62 KTAE 161926
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 PM EDT THU APR 16 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

COOL WEDGE HAS BUILT DOWN INTO OUR REGION. SURFACE DATA AT 18 UTC
SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION, GENERALLY FROM NEAR
DOTHAN TO VALDOSTA. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS HAS PREVENTED MUCH OF A
WARM UP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND THUS THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO
DESTABILIZE AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION REALLY ISN`T GETTING GOING. HI-
RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THIS COULD
POSSIBLY BE LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE NEXT MID LEVEL IMPULSE APPROACHES
THE REGION. WITH A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WILL SHOW RAIN CHANCES RAMPING UP QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE NEXT
DISTURBANCE NEARS THE AREA. FOR TEMPERATURES, THE PRESENCE OF THE
COOL WEDGE WILL HAVE SOME AREAS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA WITH LOWS NEAR
60 WITH AREAS IN FLORIDA IN THE LOWER 70S.


.SHORT TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...

AN ACTIVE, MOIST SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
GULF COAST. THE NAEFS FORECAST MEAN PWAT VALUES FOR OUR AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO BE 1 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY MINOR IMPULSES ACROSS
OUR REGION, RESULTING IN OCCASIONALLY BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME. SOME OF THIS RAIN WILL
BE HEAVY, BUT (AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS), WE CAN`T
SINGLE OUT A WELL-DEFINED FEATURE THAT WOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR
PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN. THEREFORE WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME, THOUGH ISOLATED FLOODING REMAINS
POSSIBLE.

THROUGH SATURDAY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED, QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE, MARKING THE LEADING EDGE OF A "WEDGE" OF HIGH
PRESSURE NOSING DOWN THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL HELP KEEP LAPSE RATES
RATHER FLAT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA, REDUCING THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE
COOLER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY ONLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN GA AND AL. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE
UPPER 70S ON SATURDAY AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD.


.LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY]...

THE PERSISTENT WESTERN CONUS 500 MB TROUGH WILL FINALLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD ON SUNDAY, AS A RATHER SHALLOW NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT,
BUT SIGNIFICANT DRYING OF THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WILL HAVE ALREADY
BEGUN ON MONDAY. THUS OUR POPS WILL (FINALLY) BEGIN TO LOWER MONDAY,
THEN FALL TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
NOT BE THAT COOL BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY WILL MAKE
IT FEEL MORE PLEASANT THAN WHAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY] EXTENSIVE IFR CEILINGS PREVAIL AT DHN/ABY/VLD
BEHIND THE COOL WEDGE THIS AFTERNOON AND ARE UNLIKELY TO IMPROVE
THROUGH THE CYCLE. TLH/ECP WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS TIL
LATE TONIGHT. OVERNIGHT, CEILINGS SHOULD DROP TO LIFR ALL SITES BY
07Z WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z BACK TO THE IFR
CATEGORY.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE NOSES DOWN THE PIEDMONT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND RATHER VARIABLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED WITH HIGH RH PREVAILING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. WETTING RAINS ARE LIKELY AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS
SHOULD STAY HIGH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

THOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD, RECENT HEAVY RAINS IN THE FL PANHANDLE,
SOUTHEAST AL, AND SOUTHWEST GA HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SHARP RISES IN
LOCAL RIVER STAGES. IN PARTICULAR, THE OCHLOCKONEE RIVER AT
THOMASVILLE, APALACHICOLA RIVER AT BLOUNTSTOWN, AND CHOCTAWHATCHEE
RIVER AT BRUCE ARE LIKELY TO BE ABOVE LOCAL ACTION STAGE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE. OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WE EXPECT STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT AN INCH IN NORTH FL, TO 4 INCHES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND PORTIONS
OF THE FL PANHANDLE. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 6 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. FORTUNATELY MANY OF THE RIVER STAGES IN SOUTHEAST AL AND
THE FL PANHANDLE WERE BELOW NORMAL BEFORE THIS WEEK. HOWEVER, THE
RAINS FROM THIS WEEK HAVE BROUGHT MANY OF THESE RIVERS TO ABOVE-
NORMAL FLOWS. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN SETS UP OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, MORE OF THESE RIVERS COULD REACH LOCAL ACTION
STAGE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   66  80  66  83  69 /  50  60  30  50  40
PANAMA CITY   67  78  68  77  71 /  60  60  30  60  50
DOTHAN        62  74  63  78  67 /  70  70  30  50  50
ALBANY        61  73  62  80  66 /  60  70  30  40  50
VALDOSTA      62  77  64  82  67 /  50  60  30  40  40
CROSS CITY    66  82  66  84  68 /  60  50  30  40  30
APALACHICOLA  70  78  70  80  72 /  50  50  30  50  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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