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066 FXUS62 KTAE 152053 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 342 PM EDT Tue Apr 15 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]... A strong cold front will push southeastward through the entire CWA overnight with much colder and drier air building in from the northwest on strong cold air advection. Any lingering low cloudiness will also dissipate from west to east after sunset, and temperatures will steadily fall as the NW winds will continue to persist. By sunrise, low temps are expected to bottom out in the middle 30s across the NW 1/3 of the region to the upper 30s to lower 40s further to the south and east. These unseasonably cold temperatures when combined with at least 5 to 10 mph winds will produce wind chill readings between 28 and 35 degrees at most locations over the tri-state area. However, since we are no longer expecting any actual low temperatures at or below freezing (mainly due to the elevated winds and saturated ground), have cancelled the Freeze Watch which was in effect for much of SE AL and the interior of Walton county in the FL Panhandle. Furthermore, no frost is anticipated to form overnight as the winds will remain too high and relative humidities too low. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... A ridge of high pressure and a briefly drier air mass will control the regional weather through Wednesday evening with mostly sunny skies. The morning hours are likely to be quite chilly, but by afternoon we should warm into the 60s to perhaps around 70 degrees in the Florida Big Bend. The surface high pressure ridge will erode quickly from early Thursday morning onward. Easterly boundary layer flow and increasing moisture should lead to gradually increasing chances of rain showers, although PoPs through the entire period are below 50%. With a slight amount of instability Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, we included isolated thunderstorm wording in those periods as well. There are still significant differences between various models on the possible development of a surface low in the Gulf associated with a digging shortwave trough on Thursday. For now, we have adopted a consensus approach that reflects gradually increasing easterly flow and chances of rain showers. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... Both the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement showing a low over the Gulf phasing with a trough extending down from the Great Lakes on Friday. This will kick off another round of showers and storms through Friday evening. Ridging settles in by Saturday and temperatures begin to trend towards climo. On Monday, zonal flow brings another weak system north of our CWA but it appears there will only be a slight chance of rain with this system. && .Aviation... [Through 18Z Wednesday] MVFR CIGS will continue for all terminals and will begin clearing to VFR from west to east tonight. Rain showers over VLD will continue for the next few hours. Expect northwest winds to change over to easterly winds by tomorrow morning with VFR CIGS and VIS. && .Marine... N-NW flow 20-25 knots will continue through the night, and gradually veer to the NE before diminishing on Wednesday morning. After that, an extended period of easterly flow will set up for the rest of the week with periodic SCEC or perhaps brief advisory level winds - especially at night. && .Fire Weather... Although much drier air will push into the region from the northwest tonight and Wednesday, soil moisture will be very high due to the widespread heavy rainfall which fell during the past 24 hours. Additionally, high temperatures on Wednesday are not expected to be warm enough for relative humidities to reach critical levels. Thereafter, a gradual warming and moistening trend is expected with no fire weather concerns for the next several days. && .Hydrology... A band of heavy rain set up across the Florida Panhandle overnight. Many areas in Florida got 2 to 3 inches of rain overnight and this morning, with isolated amounts of 4 to 5 inches. The Georgia and Alabama counties got less rain, 1 to 2 inches with isolated amounts of 2 to 3 inches. The Chipola River near Altha is rising quickly and will likely crest in moderate flood stage. The St. Marks River near Newport is also rising quickly and will also likely crest in moderate flood stage. Moderate flooding is occurring along the Choctawhatchee River near Bruce. Otherwise where flooding was occurring it was generally in minor flood stage. Many rivers will stay elevated through the week. Next chance for rain is Friday. Rain totals Friday are expected to be around half an inch. The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be found on the AHPS page at http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 40 71 48 73 59 / 0 0 10 30 40 Panama City 43 69 53 73 61 / 0 0 10 30 40 Dothan 36 67 45 71 56 / 0 0 10 20 30 Albany 37 67 44 71 55 / 0 0 10 20 30 Valdosta 40 69 48 72 58 / 0 0 20 30 40 Cross City 42 72 52 77 60 / 10 0 20 30 50 Apalachicola 43 68 54 71 64 / 0 0 20 30 40 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Wednesday for all zones. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS/WALSH AVIATION...GOULD/WALSH MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT

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