Area Forecast Discussion
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789 FXUS62 KTAE 231917 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 317 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Deep layer ridging is leading to another dry, sunny day. In the wake of a cold front, temperatures are slightly below normal today and that should continue into tonight. Widespread lows in the mid 40s are expected, except right along the Gulf coast and in the city of Tallahassee. Some high cirrus may arrive later tonight, but that should not impact temperatures too much. .Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday, but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S. coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However, the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Friday] Clear skies (VFR conditions) and light winds should prevail through the TAF period. Some high cirrus may arrive later tonight, but that will not impact the flight category.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening. A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next week. No rain is expected through the period.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this time of year.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns across the region.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 44 79 44 80 47 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 53 78 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 45 77 46 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 45 78 46 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 44 77 46 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 45 79 46 80 46 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 51 77 51 78 53 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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