Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
414 FXUS62 KTAE 010825 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 325 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2015 .Near Term [Through Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
The 00Z Tallahassee sounding revealed a moist layer focused between about 1000-5000 feet AGL, or roughly 990-850mb. The majority of numerical models maintain some weakly positive omega in this layer through the pre-dawn hours, and in the eastern half of our forecast area during the remainder of the morning. This is due to continued low-level isentropic ascent, and should maintain some scattered light rain showers and areas of drizzle. We expect a mostly dry afternoon across the area, however. The temperature forecast is tricky, and will depend on the extent of the low-level stratus cloud cover. Models suggest that the best chances of this cloud layer scattering out is in the eastern Florida Big Bend, where high temperatures could reach well into the 70s in sunshine. The difficult area is the transition zone to the north and west, roughly along the Panhandle coast curving northeast up to Tallahassee and Valdosta. There is quite a bit of variability in high temperatures amongst the model guidance, from around 60 degrees in the cloudier solutions, to the low 70s in the sunnier solutions. For now we have split the difference in these areas with mid-60s as either scenario seems equally likely. To the north of a ECP-TLH-VLD line, the stratus is expected to linger through the day, and high temperatures were trended to the cooler end of model guidance in these areas, generally 55-60 degrees. .Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]... Southerly flow becomes more established at the surface along with a building mid/upper ridge centered over the southern GOMEX. A weak impulse will pass to the north of the area allowing for only a slight chance of showers across our northern areas. Though mostly cloudy skies are expected, the building ridge and southerly flow will help push afternoon temps into the 70s for both days. .Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]... The upper ridging shifts east on Wednesday with showers and possibly thunderstorms spreading across the local region in advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front will pass through on Thursday stalling over or just south of our coastal waters on Friday. This boundary may bring more rain to the region over the weekend as the next impulse translates across Texas and then the Gulf coastal states. Temps will be above seasonal levels with highs in the mid to upper 70s Wednesday with below normal temps thereafter.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[through 12Z Monday] LIFR to IFR CIGS will prevail over much of the region early this morning, with CIGS gradually rising during the daytime into the upper end of the IFR range or low end of the MVFR range. The clouds may briefly scatter out at times later in the day at ECP, TLH, and VLD. However, LIFR-IFR CIGs are likely to build back in again tonight with some patchy fog possible. Most terminals should see some periods of -DZ or -SHRA this morning.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Marine...
-- Changed Discussion --
Borderline advisory conditions will continue through daybreak this morning before quickly diminishing as high pressure weakens across the Mid Atlantic. Generally light winds and low seas are expected through mid week. By late Wednesday, onshore flow will increase ahead of an approaching front and then quickly shift offshore by Thursday behind a cold front. Advisory conditions are likely behind this cold front Thursday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Fire Weather...
-- Changed Discussion --
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few days. Lowering inversion heights (and thus, mixing heights) today will limit smoke dispersion below normal daytime levels. Over the following few nights, some fog is likely and some areas of dense fog will be possible. The fog potential is likely to contribute to elevated LVORI values over much of the area.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Hydrology...
-- Changed Discussion --
Area streamflows remain above normal. The Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Rivers are now in action stage at each of the forecast points. Minor flooding is possible for the Withlacoochee River at Valdosta early tomorrow. No significant rainfall is expected for the next few days, so no additional river flooding is anticipated at this time.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 67 54 76 58 76 / 30 10 10 10 10 Panama City 64 55 69 59 70 / 20 10 20 10 10 Dothan 59 51 72 58 77 / 30 10 20 20 20 Albany 54 49 71 57 77 / 60 10 20 20 20 Valdosta 66 53 76 58 77 / 50 10 10 10 10 Cross City 74 56 78 59 77 / 20 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 67 57 69 60 71 / 20 10 10 10 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM- Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.