Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 210815
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
415 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
With the dying shortwave trof sliding even further to the east
expect even lower PoPs today than yesterday, with rain chances
generally confined to the eastern one third of the CWA, with 20-30
percent chances of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Despite
favorable looking soundings with impressive mid-level lapse rates,
very little in the way of strong convection developed yesterday in
spite better conditions for mesoscale forcing. Furthermore, Sea
Surface Temperatures (SSTs) and PWATs have not quite reached mature
summertime levels, so we may be a good 2-3 weeks away from our more
typical afternoon and evening Sea Breeze convection. As for
temperatures, by going a solid 5-7 degrees above guidance for High
Temps on Monday (and still falling short by a couple of degrees in
some areas (for example, our fcst was 93 for VLD against the 00Z MAV
showing 86, the MET 87, and ECS 89, with the actual High verifying
at 95)) we easily beat all available numerical guidance. Therefore,
with plenty of sunshine, very warm 850 temps, once again went with
highs in the mid 90s across much of the interior.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...
The mid/upper low that had been meandering over the Southeast for
the past few days will open up into an approaching shortwave and
begin to move north into Georgia on Wednesday. This will continue
to focus the higher chances for showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern third of the forecast area, however, the threat for
isolated strong to severe storms will decrease as the steeper
lapse rates move to our north. Overnight, the threat for
convection will continue, primarily over our Georgia counties
where boundaries from storms along a front to our west collide
with boundaries from our afternoon storms further east. Waning
instability and weak shear will likely inhibit strong to severe
thunderstorm development on Wednesday night. On Thursday, a weak
cold front will move into the Tri-State region and lay out from
west to east. This will likely act as a focus for afternoon storm
development, probably aided by the seabreeze later in the day.
Steepening lapse rates with cooling mid level temperatures could
allow for some of the stronger storms to produce hail and gusty
winds. This would be especially true west of a line from Albany
south to Tallahassee. Highs will generally be in the lower 90s
inland and mid 80s near the coast each afternoon. Wednesday night
will feature temperatures in the middle 60s away from the rain,
and a bit warmer across south Georgia.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
Unsettled weather pattern will continue into the late part of the
week, but will replaced by drier weather for the weekend as a
slow moving trough finally shifts away from the area. A mid/upper
level ridge of high pressure will begin to establish itself over
the area for the holiday weekend into next week which should
preclude more than isolated afternoon showers/tstms. Temperatures
are expected to remain seasonal with highs in the upper 80s/lower
90s and overnight lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION [Beginning 07Z Tuesday]...
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the Taf Cycle, with just brief periods of MVFR conditions possible
at ECP and VLD this morning. With a 20% PoP at VLD, did not
explicitly mention convection at this time, so believe a Sct CB
group should suffice for now, which can be amended later if need
Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days
under the influence of surface high pressure. Some slight
enhancements will be possible near the coast within the seabreeze
No Red Flag concerns are expected for the next several days, with
Afternoon Relative Humidities remaining safely above critical
Only scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated over the
next couple of afternoons. With weak steering flow, any storms
that do form will have the potential to meander very slowly or
propagate along boundaries. For that reason, there will remain the
potential for isolated nuisance flooding, but this will have
little to no impact on area rivers and streams.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 94 65 89 65 91 / 10 10 40 30 40
Panama City 87 68 85 69 84 / 10 10 10 20 40
Dothan 94 65 93 68 90 / 10 10 20 40 40
Albany 94 66 92 68 91 / 10 10 40 40 40
Valdosta 95 64 90 65 93 / 20 20 50 40 40
Cross City 93 64 89 64 92 / 30 20 40 30 40
Apalachicola 86 67 82 69 82 / 10 10 20 20 40