Area Forecast Discussion
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257
FXUS62 KTAE 301919
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
319 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014

...A Taste of Fall weather is on the way for the weekend...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

An upper level ridge is moving in from the west. At the Sfc low
pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area this
evening. Drier air will move in from the northwest. The northwestern
part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the early evening
hours. Elsewhere cloud cover will persist until shortly after
sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low 80s. The
lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with highs this
afternoon. Min temps overnight will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short
lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for
Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during
the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the
afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms
tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain
chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL
Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps
around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually
increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday
night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle
towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead
of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms
becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the
Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This
convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the
NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday
night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by
Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out
ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or
severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a
strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real
taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will
generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier
air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the
lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the
front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in
the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR
cigs across the region. ABY and DHN will scatter out late
afternoon/early evening. TLH, ECP and VLD will scatter out shortly
after sunset. Expect MVFR conditions in the early morning hours at
TLH and VLD ending shortly after sunrise.

&&

.Marine...

Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening,
light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through
Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase
out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the
northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a
fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold
front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary
levels on Saturday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold
front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread
showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive
behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop
below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.Hydrology...

Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the
fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total
rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with
isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event
produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system
should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at
best.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  89  70  90  71 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   71  86  73  87  75 /  10  10  10  30  40
Dothan        66  88  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  30  40
Albany        66  89  67  89  69 /   0  10  10  20  30
Valdosta      67  89  67  91  69 /  10  20  20  20  20
Cross City    69  89  69  90  69 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  72  85  73  85  75 /  10  10  10  30  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GOULD





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