Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 101105
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
605 AM EST Tue Dec 10 2013
...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The cold front will finally make some forward progress and push
through the area during the day. The CAM guidance responds with a
fairly high coverage of showers across the area, especially across
portions of southern Georgia into the Florida big bend. Given the
amount of upper level support, this seems reasonable and the
official forecast will continue to show high PoPs today. There may
also be enough instability for a few thunderstorms, but severe
weather is not currently expected. Rain chances will drop off
sharply from west to east after the passage of the cold front this
afternoon. A non-diurnal temperature curve is likely across portions
of the area after the frontal passage with highs for the day reached
early across western areas with falling temperatures and gusty
northwest winds behind the front.
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...
Although the passage of this cold front will not bring in a true
Arctic Blast like the one in late November, it will bring in much
cooler and drier air to the region. In fact, the numerical guidance
continues to drop on its potential low temperatures, so did lower
them a bit for tonight. This means that a few locations in SE AL
could briefly hit the freezing mark, with lows elsewhere ranging
from the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. Highs on Wednesday should
range from the lower 60s to the NW to near 70 well to the SE.
Although low temperatures are expected to moderate quite a bit on
Wednesday night, daytime highs on Thursday should remain about the
same as Wednesday. No additional precip is expected in the fcst
until the upcoming weekend
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
The long term period begins with a reinforcing shot of drier air
on Thursday in a relatively fast pattern across the CONUS. The
next storm system to affect the region will already be pulling out
of the Rockies on Friday and rapidly developing across the Mid
South by Friday night. Both the GFS and Euro have moved closer to
the same solution with a frontal passage through the region on
Saturday night. By Sunday afternoon, drier and cooler conditions
return. Though temperatures will drop back to slightly below
normal values, significantly colder air does not appear likely
behind this system.
[Through 12z Wednesday] Low cigs and numerous showers will prevail
this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, although the chance of thunder
currently looks too low to include explicitly in any of the TAFs and
would likely be limited to KTLH and KVLD only if any occurs. Cigs
are expected to improve from west to east through the day as the
front moves through the area. Gusty northwest winds are also
expected behind the front.
Onshore flow this morning will quickly shift to the west and
then northwest on today as a cold front moves across the marine
area. Advisory level winds are likely before noon across the western
legs of the marine area, and by very late in the afternoon over the
east, so will begin a Small Craft Advisory Hazard with slightly
different timings. Winds will then diminish on Wednesday before
ramping back up to at least cautionary levels by the end of the week.
Areas of fog will be a concern early this morning ahead of a cold
front. Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns through
Wednesday. Drier air is expected to move in on Thursday with
relative humidity possibly approaching critical values in some
Storm total rainfall for this approaching cold front will be very
meager at best, and should have little or no impact on the stages of
area rivers and streams.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 71 35 66 45 66 / 70 0 10 10 0
Panama City 68 40 62 47 64 / 50 0 0 0 0
Dothan 62 33 62 37 61 / 50 0 0 0 0
Albany 65 34 64 36 62 / 70 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 71 40 65 43 66 / 70 20 10 10 0
Cross City 73 41 70 50 68 / 70 20 10 10 10
Apalachicola 71 44 63 49 65 / 70 0 0 0 0
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EST
Wednesday for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton
Beach to Ochlockonee River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-
Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20
NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20
to 60 NM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 10 AM this morning to 5 AM EST
Wednesday for Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin
FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from
20 to 60 NM.