Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 181542
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EST Thu Dec 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Band of high clouds across the Big Bend and south central Georgia
this morning is keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler than
forecast. These clouds are expected to thin out during the
afternoon, which should still allow for temperatures to reach the
lower to mid 60s for most locations. Other than minor temperature
adjustments, no changes are needed to the forecast for today, with
dry conditions and very light winds in place.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday] With plenty of cool and dry air entrenched
across the region and a large cirrus canopy overhead, VFR level
conditions with light winds are expected to prevail through the
TAF period.

&&

.Prev Discussion [419 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...
Increasing moisture ahead of a developing storm system across the
Western Gulf of Mexico on Friday will lead to increasing cloud
cover and eventually areas of rain developing by Friday afternoon
as the storm system moves closer to the region and isentropic lift
increases. From Friday afternoon through Saturday morning the
model guidance is in fairly good agreement that the best zone of
isentropic ascent will remain across our northern tier counties or
possibly even further north across Central Alabama and into Middle
Georgia Friday night. As the weak surface area of low pressure
approaches on Saturday, limited deep layer forcing will limit
overall coverage of rain. Rain amounts through the short term
period should remain on the low side, but cloudy conditions from
Friday through Saturday will keep temperatures below normal, and
possibly several degrees below normal across our northern zones.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...
A complex weather pattern will evolve throughout the long term
period. The system that passed through the region on Saturday will
leave behind a stalled frontal zone across the Eastern Gulf and
across the Florida Peninsula. With the upper level pattern across
the Western and Central CONUS becoming more energetic by Sunday, a
series of impulses moving within the broader trough will likely
create intervals of rain along and north of this boundary Sunday
through Tuesday. Thereafter, both the GFS and Euro indicate the
main upper trough will dig into the mid Mississippi River Valley
generating a strong storm system across the Tennessee Valley that
will eventually push a cold front across Florida on Wednesday. The
overall intensity of this frontal system is uncertain, with the
18/00z Euro featuring a weaker solution than its previous run. So
while the forecast remains uncertain with regard to the intensity
this storm system, there does appear to be consensus emerging that
drier conditions should arrive late on Christmas Eve and continue
into Christmas Day.


.Marine...
Light offshore flow over the marine area will continue into
Friday, when winds will shift to easterly and increase to moderate
levels. Headline conditions are not anticipated. Winds will
decrease by Sunday and remain low into Monday.


.Fire Weather...
After a brief shot of cool and dry air today and Friday (which will
still not even be close to causing any Red Flag concerns), low level
moisture and rain chances will begin to increase again over the
weekend. This upcoming pattern will be extremely unfavorable for
both Red Flag conditions and even controlled burns.


.Hydrology...
With light rainfall amounts anticipated with the next storm system
on Friday into Saturday, there are no flooding issues expected
through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   65  41  65  47  66 /   0   0  10  30  30
Panama City   63  46  62  54  65 /   0   0  40  30  30
Dothan        63  42  59  46  60 /   0   0  40  50  50
Albany        63  40  62  46  62 /   0   0  30  50  60
Valdosta      63  39  65  46  64 /   0   0  10  30  30
Cross City    67  40  70  47  69 /   0   0  10  20  20
Apalachicola  64  44  64  54  66 /   0   0  20  20  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







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