Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
019 FXUS62 KTAE 290029 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 729 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2015 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
-- Changed Discussion --
The 7 pm EST regional surface analysis showed a ridge from the Piedmont to the northeast Gulf of Mexico, with a relatively cool, dry airmass in place. Tonight promises to be much like last night, with lows in the lower to mid 30s and frost in our normally colder interior locations.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 00Z Friday] Another period of unlimited cigs and unrestricted Vis is on tap for our area. Light to calm winds over night will become SE-S 5 to 10 KT Thursday afternoon.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [334 PM EST]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]... High pressure will slide south over the area on Thursday resulting in a dry day with seasonal temperatures. A short wave trough will then pass well north of the region Thursday night. The associated surface cold front will cross our region Thursday night into Friday morning. We have maintained a slight chance PoP across the northern half of the forecast area for Thursday night. By Friday morning, most of the shower activity should be dissipated. There will not be much of a temperature drop off after frontal passage aside from min temps dropping back into the 30s Friday night. .Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]... After a dry day on Saturday, two frontal systems will impact the area from Sunday through Wednesday. The Sunday system will involve a weak wave of low pressure moving northeast across the Gulf of Mexico toward the region and a cold front approaching from the northwest. PoPs have continued to trend slowly upward for Sunday with some likely PoPs now inching into Coffee County AL dropping to slight chance in Dixie County FL. Most everyone is under a 50 PoP Sunday night with a cold frontal passage ending rain chances sometime on Monday. Another area of low pressure will then quickly develop over the western Gulf of Mexico. There is considerable spread in the model guidance as to how fast and at what latitude this system will move eastward. This will have a big impact on PoPs and wind forecasts from Tuesday into Wednesday, so stay tuned. .Marine... Winds will remain below headline criteria as they veer from the east to onshore by Thursday as high pressure builds south over the waters. A cold front will cross the waters Friday morning and briefly increase winds to cautionary levels west of Apalachicola. We will then get into a nocturnal pattern of surges to cautionary level winds Friday and Saturday nights as high pressure strengthens north of the area and weak low pressure develops in the Gulf of Mexico. Another cold frontal passage is expected early Monday with offshore winds remaining at cautionary levels behind it. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days. Dispersion values will be low on Thursday. .Hydrology... Routed flow continues to progress downstream across rivers in far Southern Georgia and the Florida Big Bend. The Ochlockonee has crested just about through Southern Grady County and at Concord. The river may briefly go above flood stage further downstream at Havana on Thursday. The Withlacoochee River has crested at Valdosta and is falling. The crest values at this site suggest an eventual crest in the 18.5 to 19 foot range at the US-84 gage below Valdosta. The next notable rainfall threat is on Sunday. Although QPF values are unlikely to result in any additional river flooding, they will continue to help keep area stream flows above normal as we move into February.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 32 64 47 64 36 / 0 0 10 10 0 Panama City 43 62 52 61 42 / 0 0 10 0 0 Dothan 36 63 46 58 35 / 0 0 20 0 0 Albany 31 61 45 59 33 / 0 0 20 0 0 Valdosta 34 63 46 61 36 / 0 0 10 10 0 Cross City 32 66 45 67 37 / 0 0 0 10 0 Apalachicola 46 63 51 65 43 / 0 0 10 10 0 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until Midnight EST tonight for Coastal Gulf. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/WESTON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.