Area Forecast Discussion
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013 FXUS62 KTAE 310719 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 319 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WE ARE AGAIN UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FROM SPC. A SHORT WAVE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND WILL INTERACT WITH A FRONT STALLED ACROSS MIDDLE ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS, THE FORCING WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE. MODELS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ABOUT 1700 J/KG OF CAPE. THIS COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. AGAIN, THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM 40 IN SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO 20 NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR 80. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]... A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...ORIENTED SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL GA...MAY STILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THOUGH THE 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDE APPEARS WEAKER THAN WHAT OBSERVED ON MONDAY...THE PERSISTENT ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (THAT ORIGINATED IN THE NORTHERN MEXICAN PLATEAU) WILL CONTINUE TO POSE AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...BUT WEAK FORCING AND POOR THERMODYNAMICS (INCLUDING MUCH LESS IMPRESSIVE MID-LAYER LAPSE RATES) WILL LIMIT DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO ISOLATED COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE. .LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]... A LONG WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND...BRINING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR TO THE REGION INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK. BOTH THE 00 UTC GFS AND ECMWF FORECAST THIS FRONT TO LOSE MUCH OF ITS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS IT PASSES THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...SO RAIN CHANCES WILL BE SLIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BEGIN TO COOL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 70S...WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO SLIGHTY ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] THIS MORNING ALL TERMINALS WILL HAVE IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CEILINGS. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSBILE AT DHN, ABY, TLH AND VLD THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS BETWEEN 18 AND 23Z TO ACCOUNT FOR BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
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&& .MARINE...
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RELATIVELY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO MODERATE LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT. A SIMILAR TREND IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE QUITE AS MUCH IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. ON WEDNESDAY DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE HIGH IN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND. NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 82 62 82 60 82 / 30 20 20 20 10 PANAMA CITY 75 65 75 62 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 DOTHAN 81 61 80 59 81 / 30 20 30 20 20 ALBANY 80 60 81 59 80 / 40 40 30 20 20 VALDOSTA 81 61 81 59 80 / 30 30 30 20 30 CROSS CITY 81 62 81 59 82 / 20 10 20 10 30 APALACHICOLA 76 65 77 62 76 / 10 10 10 10 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...WESTON SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...WESTON MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...WESTON HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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