Area Forecast Discussion
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944 FXUS62 KTAE 300104 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 904 PM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014 ...Expect Noticeably Drier and Cooler Conditions Overnight... .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The large scale pattern is highly amplified marked by ridge over much of Wrn 2/3rd of Conus...and trough digging over Ern third into Wrn Atlc with axis along Ern seaboard. At surface, cool front across Nrn most Gulf waters extending Wwd to TX Coast. Locally this translates to NNW flow surface to aloft and in wake of front noticeably drier and cooler airmass with dew points running 10-15 degrees drier than same time yesterday. Dry air mixing down has dropped mid evening dew points at or sightly below 60 degrees especially over GA/AL counties. Light winds and dry air will favor clear skies overnight and lead to record or near record low temperatures at some area sites. Expect lows from the low 60s Nrn most areas to mid 60s elsewhere, except near 70 at the coast. The following are forecast and record lows for July 30th. Please note that except for Tallahassee and Apalachicola, all stations have at least one missing year of data so its possible these values are not the most accurate. SITE Forecast Low Record Low TALLAHASSEE 66 67 1927 VALDOSTA 63 66 1954 CROSS CITY 66 65 1949 APALACHICOLA 70 67 1984 For example, if the low at Tallahassee drops to our forecast of 66 degrees, it would be a new record low by one degree.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Thursday]...No precipitation is expected during the TAF period with limited cloud cover. VFR conditions will prevail with light winds.
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&& .Prev Discussion [233 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... A few more dry days to finish off an unusually dry July for the region. The cold front that pushed through this morning will settle well to our south on Wednesday before slowly lifting north through Thursday night. Although the max temps will still be at or above seasonal levels, afternoon dew points in the 50s to around 60 will make it feel much more bearable. The most notable change will be the cooler nighttime temps, especially Wednesday night with lows in the mid 60s most inland areas. Thursday night`s min temps will generally be in the upper 60s to around 70. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... The long wave trough with axis through the southeastern CONUS will remain in place but begin to fill late in the weekend and early next week as the Atlantic ridge builds westward. The local region will reside in deep moist southwest flow through the extended period. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help enhance diurnal convection. Meanwhile at the surface, a quasi-stationary front/trough will linger across the CWA through the weekend before dissipating early next week. All this along with daytime heating and sea breeze interaction will lead to near or above climo PoPs most days. Overnight lows will be around 70. Daytime high temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. .Marine... Typical summertime conditions with light winds and low seas return to the local waters at least through the remainder of the week. .Fire Weather... RH values will likely be near locally critical levels Wed afternoon. However, other factors, like ERC and KBDI, are not expected to reach Red Flag levels at this time. .Hydrology... Flooding is not expected for the next several days.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 66 93 65 94 69 / 0 0 0 10 10 Panama City 71 89 72 90 73 / 0 0 0 10 10 Dothan 63 89 65 93 70 / 0 0 0 10 10 Albany 64 91 66 94 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 Valdosta 63 94 67 94 70 / 0 0 0 10 10 Cross City 66 93 67 93 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 Apalachicola 70 90 72 89 71 / 0 0 0 10 10 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...DVD

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