Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 110204
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
904 PM EST Tue Dec 10 2013
...Cooler and Drier Air Overspreading the Local Area Overnight...
.NEAR TERM [Rest of Tonight]...
The cold front that moved into our CWA earlier today has finally moved
out of the area. In its wake...noticeably cooler and drier air is
steadily filtering in from the northwest. Winds which were much
stronger this afternoon have begun to lighten as the axis of a
surface ridge moves closer to our area. The temperature forecast
appears to be on track tonight, however we have adjusted minimum
temps down a few degrees for our SE Alabama counties. We
anticipate winds around 5-7 kts will keep areas a bit warmer than
MAV guidance was indicating, therefore we went with min temps near 50
in the FL Big Bend, upper 30s to low 40s for much of our area but
near freezing for our most northern counties.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
Much of the eastern CONUS will be dominated by a broad long wave
trough at 500 mb, and a large area of high pressure at the surface.
The airmass across our region will be cool and dry, with near
average temperatures (i.e. lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s and
highs in the 60s). However, low temperatures may approach freezing
in our normally colder inland sites Friday morning, provided that
the wind stays calm.
.LONG TERM [Friday through next Tuesday]...
The zonal 500 mb flow and fair & mild weather on Friday will give
way to high rain chances this weekend, as a cold front moves through
the region. The PoP will increase from west to east Fri night/Sat
morning, then taper off from west to east on Sun. The GFS was a bit
faster than the ECMWF, but they both indicate very high PoPs. There
appears to be enough vertical wind shear and forcing for a non-zero
chance of a few severe storms, but as usual, the instability looks
marginal with SBCAPE values around 500 J/KG or less and poor mid
tropospheric lapse rates. There is also the question of whether or
not these storms will be surface based. Fair weather and
near-average temperatures are expected behind the cold front through
.AVIATION [Through 00z Thursday]...
CIGS and VIS will be VFR with winds out of the northwest between
5 and 10 knots.
The tight pressure gradient overnight will keep winds and seas at
advisory levels. This gradient will temporarily weaken on Wed, as
winds drop to around 10 KT late Wed afternoon. However, a strong
high pressure system will develop across the Tennessee Valley Wed
night and Thurs, causing winds and seas to once again approach
No fire weather concerns are expected on Wednesday, however a
reinforcing shot of drier air on Thursday will create the potential
for fire weather conditions across North Florida, depending on the
ERC values. Elsewhere on Thursday, while relative humidity values
will be near critical levels, durations of low relative humidity
will not be met. A moistening trend begins on Friday which will end
any potential red flag concerns until next week.
Today`s frontal passage brought rain amounts up to 0.5 inch. The next
chance of rain is expected over the weekend, with rainfall totals of
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 41 65 43 62 33 / 0 10 10 0 0
Panama City 46 63 47 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 33 60 36 58 32 / 0 0 0 0 0
Albany 36 61 36 60 31 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 41 63 43 61 34 / 0 10 10 0 0
Cross City 51 69 49 67 34 / 10 10 10 10 0
Apalachicola 48 65 49 63 39 / 0 0 0 0 0
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Wednesday for Apalachee
Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to Ochlockonee
River Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From Ochlockonee
River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal waters from
Suwannee River to Keaton Beach out 20 NM-Coastal waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.