Area Forecast Discussion
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281
FXUS62 KTAE 010052
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
852 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A similar convective pattern to yesterday afternoon presented
itself once again this afternoon. With the lack of synoptic
forcing, surface-based boundaries played the primary role in
convective distribution. The afternoon started with convection
firing along the Panhandle seabreeze front and along two distinct
temperature/moisture gradients on either side of what was
essentially a mesoscale high pressure wedge. Within a few hours of
initiation showers and thunderstorms were driven primarily by
storm-scale boundary interactions. The Big Bend and south-central
Georgia are a few degrees cooler on the dewpoints this evening
compared to yesterday, and this slightly drier airmass should
preclude another round of robust convection like what occurred
last night along the east coast seabreeze. However, it is still
pretty juicy from Taylor and Lafayette counties southward, so
expect ongoing convection down there to remain intact and move
into the Gulf over the next few hours.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]...

Scattered SHRA/TSRA may linger until around 04z, mainly around
KVLD. Elsewhere SHRA/TSRA will be more isolated. Outside of
SHRA/TSRA, VFR conditions are expected until dawn, when periods of
MVFR vis/cigs are possible at KVLD, KABY, and KVLD. Otherwise VFR
conditions are expected by mid morning Monday. Isolated TSRA will
develop Monday afternoon, but the PoP is only in the 20-30% range
for most terminals.

&&

.Prev Discussion [236 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

Upper level ridging will remain in place for the period. With weak
flow and no large scale forcing, sea breeze processes will dominate
bringing near normal chances of rain. PoPs will be in the 20-40
range with higher values to the east. With high pressure in place,
max temps will be in the mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

The start of the period will be dominated by a ridge in place over
the Southeast with normal chances of rain. Tropical moisture off the
east coast of Florida will bring higher rain chances starting
Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low
70s.


.Marine...

Winds will be from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots. Wave heights will
be 2 to 4 feet tonight becoming 1 to 3 feet for the rest of the
period. Surf heights will generally be 1 to 2 feet with rip currents
possible.


.Fire Weather...

Afternoon Relative humidities will remain above critical levels for
the next several days with no fire weather concerns in the
foreseeable future.


.Hydrology...

River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next
week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  94  73  94  72 /  20  30  20  40  20
Panama City   77  90  77  91  76 /  20  20  10  30  20
Dothan        71  95  72  95  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
Albany        72  96  72  95  72 /  30  20  20  40  20
Valdosta      72  94  71  94  70 /  30  40  20  40  20
Cross City    73  92  72  93  71 /  50  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  76  90  76  90  75 /  20  20  10  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WESTON
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...WESTON
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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