Area Forecast Discussion
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569 FXUS62 KTAE 260026 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 726 PM EST Thu Dec 25 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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It`s shaping up to be a nice and quiet overnight period. There are no significant changes to the previous forecast thinking appended below. Surface high pressure centered over southwestern AL this afternoon will move northeast to a position over the Carolinas by 12Z Friday. The high will be positioned close enough allow winds to decouple overnight. The combination of calm winds and clear skies will allow for good radiational cooling. Morning lows will generally be in the mid 30s, although a few spots across the northernmost points of the forecast area could briefly touch freezing. With dew points also in the 30s, we do expect frost formation in any area that drops to 36 degrees or less. That would include most inland areas by 12Z.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be light and shifting to the east or northeast on Friday.
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&& .Prev Discussion [407 PM EST]...
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.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]... Deep layer ridge will dominate the southeastern states on Friday, with the surface high centered over South Carolina. This will keep the weather dry under mostly sunny skies. Temperatures should begin to moderate with highs generally in the mid to upper 60s. By Friday night, the upper ridge axis will slide east (along with the surface high) allowing for return flow to become established over the western half of the forecast area. Upper trough over the central states will slide east by Saturday morning, with weak shortwave energy ejecting from the base and moving through the Deep South during the day. This will increase rain chances, primarily over the Panhandle and Southeast Alabama, with highest PoP planned for those areas Saturday and Saturday night. Guidance differs on the placement of the heaviest axis of rainfall, with the ECMWF farther northwest than the GFS. Will lean towards the lower (more northwest) QPF of the ECMWF for the moment given the overall trend for the primary shortwave to deamplify with time over the weekend. This solution would also keep the heaviest rainfall away from the saturated soils across SE Alabama and the Panhandle. However, given the uncertainty, will need to monitor the evolution of this event carefully. Fortunately, the guidance is in agreement on keeping the heavy rain well northwest of the AAF-TLH-ABY corridor which needs some time to recover from the heavy rain earlier in the week. .Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]... Rain will likely linger into at least Sunday as the primary shortwave shears out to the northeast and the surface front slowly presses southward. Guidance differs again on the southward progression of the front through Monday, with the GFS stalling the front across the local area and the ECMWF pushing it south. For now, will keep some low-end PoPs across the area on Monday given the southwesterly flow aloft. Should see at least a brief period of drying for mid- week before rain chances increase again late in the week. Temperatures will be above normal for Sunday and Monday ahead of the front, before returning to near normal levels for the middle of next week. .Marine... Winds will shift to the east and approach 15 knots overnight and early Friday as high pressure slides northeast of the area. Southeasterly winds near cautionary levels are possible by Saturday over the western waters as a stalls north of the waters. Onshore flow is expected to continue into early next week. .Fire Weather... Recent heavy rainfall and another round of rain over the weekend will keep red flag conditions away for the next week. With low mixing heights and relatively low transport winds during the day on Friday and Saturday, low dispersion values are expected. .Hydrology... Recent heavy rainfall has resulted in sharp rises along many of our area rivers. Minor to moderate flooding is forecast for points along the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Sopchoppy, Withlacoochee, and Apalachicola Rivers as well as in the Kinchafoonee Creek. Most points are still rising, although a few points have already crested or will crest today. Our next round of rain will start this weekend and we may see an additional 1-2" of rain from it, which will keep river levels high. For the most up to date information, please visit: http://www.water.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 35 65 50 70 58 / 0 0 10 30 30 Panama City 42 65 54 69 62 / 0 0 20 50 30 Dothan 35 62 49 65 57 / 0 0 20 70 50 Albany 33 63 46 67 56 / 0 0 10 50 50 Valdosta 35 64 50 71 57 / 0 0 10 30 30 Cross City 35 69 52 75 60 / 0 0 10 10 10 Apalachicola 42 62 54 67 62 / 0 0 20 30 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Friday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...DVD/WOOL SHORT TERM...CAMP LONG TERM...CAMP AVIATION...DVD MARINE...CAMP FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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