Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 260448
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1148 PM EST Wed Feb 25 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
After an extremely convective active evening with several pockets
of strong to severe thunderstorms over virtually the entire CWA,
one final band of strong storms with torrential rainfall is
gradually working its way to the northeast across the SE FL Big
Bend. The brunt of this activity is affecting Taylor county at the
moment, while also clipping a portion of Madison and Lafayette
counties. Since this line extends well to the S and W in the Gulf
of Mexico, all of Dixie and Lafayette counties will be impacted by
this convection as well with possible severe wind gusts and
localized flooding before the night is over.
[Through 00Z Friday] It was a wild and crazy night for Tafs across
the CWA with just about every weather element experienced except
frozen precipitation. The good news is that the rainfall (much of
it heavy at times which kept Cigs and Vis quite low) has tapered
off and moved to the east of all sites but VLD. The main concern
for Thursday at all of the terminals is if/when will the mainly
MVFR level Cigs break, and as of the 00 UTC package I composed,
some improvement appeared likely at all sites, but actual breaking
out into VFR conditions was only expected at ECP. Hopefully, this
will change on either the upcoming 06 or 12 UTC packages so more
sunshine can be experienced.
.Prev Discussion [325 PM EST]...
.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
Low pressure will be off the Carolinas by early Thursday morning,
with high pressure building into the local forecast area.
Temperatures will continue to be below normal on Thursday, with
highs mostly in the lower to mid 50s. After a cool start to
Friday, with lows in the mid 30s northwest to lower 40s southeast,
only a modest warmup is expected by afternoon. Sprawling 1040mb
high pressure center over the midwest will limit the warming as
northerly winds help to reinforce the cool airmass.
.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Sprawling surface high over the midwest will continue to limit the
warmup through Saturday, with temperatures remaining several
degrees below normal. There may also be a few showers along the
old frontal boundary in the southeastern Big Bend. A more
substantial warmup will begin on Sunday as an upper ridge begins
to build over the Gulf and the low level flow begins to veer to
the east. May also see a chance of rain return to the forecast as
the stalled front to the south moves back to the north as a warm
front. By Monday, temperatures will be back to near normal levels,
with highs pushing into the 70s.
Strong southerly winds will shift to the northwest from west to
east overnight as low pressure moves across the coastal waters.
May see a few gusts to gale force this evening, especially as a
line of strong thunderstorms moves across the waters, but expect
duration to be short so will maintain Small Craft Advisory. Winds
and seas will diminish below headline criteria on Thursday as high
pressure builds in behind the low. However, conditions will return
to exercise caution levels by Saturday.
Widespread rainfall of generally 1 to 2 inches will keep Wet Flag
conditions going throughout the CWA for the remainder of today and
tonight. Cooler and drier air will initially work into the region
behind this low pressure system, with a warming trend expected on
Sunday. However, dewpoints will also increase with the warmup,
keeping any potential for Red Flag conditions at bay for the
Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are expected through
tonight across the area with localized amounts in excess of 3
inches possible. These totals will cause rises along our area
rivers and bring several sites along the Kinchafoonee Creek and
the Choctawhatchee, Ochlockonee, Aucilla, and Upper Withlacoochee
Rivers into action stage. The Withlacoochee River at Valdosta and
Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson are both likely to crest just below
minor flood stage by the end of the week, but could crest higher
and earlier if rainfall totals end up being higher than currently
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 43 55 38 60 40 / 90 10 10 0 10
Panama City 44 55 40 57 42 / 80 0 0 0 10
Dothan 37 51 35 53 35 / 90 0 10 0 10
Albany 39 53 36 56 37 / 90 10 10 0 10
Valdosta 44 55 41 60 41 / 100 10 10 0 10
Cross City 53 63 42 63 44 / 90 20 10 0 20
Apalachicola 47 56 43 59 46 / 90 10 0 0 10
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.