Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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145 FXUS62 KTAE 281820 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 220 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014 ...AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING... .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
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A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WITH THE RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE. WILL LEAVE IN PREVIOUS LOW POPS FOR THAT AREA. EXPECTING THESE SHOWERS TO FADE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING BUT THERE MAY BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND ADEQUATE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECTING AREAS OF FOG BY LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN A FEW SPOTS.
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&& .SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...
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A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT OVER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS IN KEEPING THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS SYSTEM QUITE WEAK WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SEE LITTLE REASON WITH THE OVERNIGHT GUIDANCE TO DEVIATE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SO WILL KEEP LOW END POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FOR THURSDAY ALONG WITH SOME COOLER AIR. TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MID 80S, WITH A NOTABLE CHANGE ARRIVING ON THURSDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NORMAL LEVELS. .LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]... BIG CHANGES ARE IN STORE DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE STILL NOTABLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE EURO AND GFS WITH THE EVENTUAL INCOMING AIRMASS FOR THE WEEKEND, SOME KEY POINTS ARE STARTING TO EMERGE. ESSENTIALLY, THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY BY FRIDAY AS A LARGE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE DEGREE OF THIS AMPLIFICATION AND EVENTUAL PATH OF A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE WILL LARGELY DICTATE HOW MUCH COLD AIR MAKES IT TO THE GULF COAST. OF THE TWO MODELS, THE EURO IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN BY SATURDAY WITH A CLOSED LOW MOVING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR THE FIRST REAL COLD AIR INTRUSION TO THE GULF. AND WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IN THE MODEL ALIGNED OVER THE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING, THE EURO HINTS AT THE POTENTIAL FOR A FROSTY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THE GFS FAVORS LESS AMPLIFICATION AND IS ALSO MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND, SO THIS SOLUTION FAVORS MILDER TEMPERATURES AS MUCH OF THE COLD AIR IS VECTORED INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STAYS WELL TO THE NORTH. THE GFS HAS OFFERED STABILITY IN ITS SOLUTIONS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, WHILE THE EURO HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY. MOREOVER, THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EURO SEEMS TO BE QUITE REMOVED FROM THE MEAN OF THE ENSEMBLES, SO FOR NOW, HAVE WEIGHTED OUR LONG TERM FORECAST MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION, WHICH INDICATES A COOL SNAP, BUT CERTAINLY NOT AS COLD AS SUGGESTED IN THE EURO. BY MONDAY, AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AREA MOVES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST, EASTERLY FLOW RETURNS, SIGNALING A GRADUAL WARM UP AND A STEADY INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. .MARINE... LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SHIFTING WINDS TO OFFSHORE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED WITH AT LEAST CAUTIONARY CONDITIONS BY LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. .FIRE WEATHER... HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE THIS WEEK WHICH MAY BRING CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO THE REGION. STAY TUNED. .HYDROLOGY... WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RIVERS WILL REMAIN AT LOW LEVELS.
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&& .AVIATION [BEGINNING 18Z TUESDAY]...
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[THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY]... FOG IS EXPECTED TO BE AN ISSUE AGAIN TONIGHT WITH IFR AT TAE AND VLD BY 07Z-08Z AND MVFR ELSEWHERE. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR POSSIBLE LOWER CIGS/VSBY INTO THE VLIFR RANGE ESPECIALLY AT TLH AND VLD.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 58 85 62 79 50 / 10 10 20 10 0 PANAMA CITY 67 81 62 76 54 / 10 10 20 10 0 DOTHAN 62 82 55 75 45 / 10 30 20 10 0 ALBANY 60 83 55 77 46 / 0 20 20 10 0 VALDOSTA 56 83 58 79 51 / 0 10 20 10 0 CROSS CITY 57 83 60 82 53 / 10 10 20 10 0 APALACHICOLA 66 79 64 77 53 / 10 10 20 10 0
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...PP SHORT TERM...GODSEY LONG TERM...GODSEY AVIATION...PP MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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