Area Forecast Discussion
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450
FXUS62 KTAE 192001
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
401 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AS OF 2 PM EDT, A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH IN THE UPPER LEVELS. A
TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL THE STORMS PASS. THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THIS LINE OF STORMS IS DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES. SO FAR MOST LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN. SOME WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE RECEIVED 4 TO 6 INCHES
OF RAIN ACCORDING TO RADAR ESTIMATES. RAIN WILL LINGER THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT FROM WEST TO EAST.
PATCHY FOG IS LIKELY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S.


.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

AN UL +PV ANOMALY WILL SWEEP EWARD FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS NRN MS
AND AL MONDAY. THIS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT
OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION
OFFSHORE, DUE TO THE DRIER AIR WITH TOMORROW`S SYSTEM THAN WE SAW
WITH TODAY`S SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SPEEDS WILL BE QUITE HIGH
TOMORROW, WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KTS AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 50
KTS. WITH DRIER AIR TOMORROW THAN TODAY, WE WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE
FOR DAYTIME HEATING TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP TO THE MID 80S AND
CREATE SOME INSTABILITY. MODEL CAPE VALUES ARE PEAKING AROUND 1000-
1500 J/KG IN AFTERNOON. THIS MEANS THAT ALTHOUGH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW ARE FAIRLY LOW, AROUND 20-40%, SCATTERED
CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD EXIT THE AREA MONDAY EVENING, BRINGING IN A COOLER,
DRIER AIRMASS OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE DRY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO AROUND 80. LOWS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

THE UNSETTLED EL-NINOISH PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH AN ACTIVE SRN STREAM JET. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL BE AROUND 20-40%
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS STAYING FAIRLY WARM, ONLY DIPPING INTO THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY]  A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS JUST EAST
OF TLH HEADING TOWARDS VLD. VLD WILL LIKELY SEE STRONG WINDS AS THIS
LINE PASSES. ELSEWHERE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS PASSED, BUT
RAIN AND LOW CIGS CONTINUE TO LINGER. EXPECT MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...

CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS TODAY WILL LOWER, THOUGH WINDS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS. AFTER THAT, WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LOWER TO NORMAL LEVELS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER A WETTING RAIN TODAY, RH VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MOST OF THE AREA RECEIVED AROUND 1-2" OF RAIN TODAY WITH SOME AREAS
IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND THE FL PANHANDLE RECEIVING 3-5" OF RAIN.
THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS
RESULTED IN RISES ALONG MANY OF OUR AREA RIVERS, WITH MANY
REACHING ACTION OR BANK FULL STAGE. THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE RIVER AT
CARRYVILLE IS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND IS FORECAST TO RISE TO
MINOR FLOOD STAGE AT BRUCE TOMORROW. THE APALACHICOLA RIVER AT
BLOUNTSTOWN IS ALSO FORECAST TO RISE TO MINOR FLOOD STAGE TOMORROW
AND THE KINCHAFOONNEE CREEK AT DAWSON IS FORECAST TO RISE TO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   69  86  62  81  58 /  20  30  10   0  10
PANAMA CITY   73  78  64  74  65 /  20  30   0   0  10
DOTHAN        67  82  58  78  58 /  20  20  10   0  10
ALBANY        67  83  59  78  58 /  20  30  10   0  10
VALDOSTA      68  86  60  78  57 /  20  30  20   0  10
CROSS CITY    70  86  63  81  59 /  30  40  20  10  10
APALACHICOLA  73  82  66  77  65 /  20  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR COASTAL BAY-
     COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL GULF-SOUTH WALTON.

GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...MOORE



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