Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 291532

1132 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Surface trough remains well defined just offshore this morning
with a sharp shift from southerly to northeasterly flow noted
along the boundary in the surface analysis. A few rotating cells
have developed over Apalachee Bay this morning, along this
boundary. However, all of this activity has remained well offshore
so far. Otherwise, a very moist and tropical atmosphere remains in
place this morning, with precipitable waters close to 2.3 inches
on the 12z KTAE sounding. At the mid-levels, a weak shortwave was
analyzed across the forecast area at 12Z, with another weak
shortwave crossing the Mississippi River. Despite the abundant
moisture, nearshore boundary, and weak energy aloft, the regional
radar mosaic is very underwhelming with very light return across
most of the area. The heaviest precip over land this morning has
been around the Albany area, where radar estimates are approaching
2 inches over the past 4 to 6 hours. Still expect pretty broad
coverage of rain through the afternoon, but most of the totals
should be pretty light. However, given the tropical atmosphere and
the approach of another weak mid-level shortwave, I am a bit
reluctant to drop the Flash Flood Watch just yet. Some very heavy
rain rates were noted in cells over southwest Georgia earlier this
morning, and the potential still exists for localized heavy rain
through the afternoon, so will leave the watch in place for now.


[Through 12Z Tuesday] IFR/MVFR cigs will likely persist through
most of the day at all area terminals. There may be some brief
improvement during the afternoon hours, but ceilings will likely
lower again after sunset and persist throught he overnight hours.


.Prev Discussion [311 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the
Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front
currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville
today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday.
Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely
(60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with
lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts
will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south
Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see
heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday,
chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or
less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend.
Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s.
Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday.

.Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...
After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term
periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather
later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level
ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and
thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on
Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus
far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a
real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low
temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on
Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW
flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however,
generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the
frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist,
with the warm and humid air struggling to budge.

A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday
night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly,
returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain
below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another
frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels.

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few

We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to
southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today
as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is
isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots
within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short
period of time, but most locations will not see that much.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   80  69  86  68  89 /  90  60  20  10  20
Panama City   83  70  86  71  87 /  90  40  20  10  20
Dothan        80  66  86  65  88 /  80  40  10  10  10
Albany        78  66  85  65  87 / 100  50  10  10  10
Valdosta      81  67  85  65  87 /  90  70  20  10  20
Cross City    83  70  86  67  88 /  90  60  30  20  20
Apalachicola  82  71  84  71  85 /  90  50  20  20  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal
     Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-
     Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-
     Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette-

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal

GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill-




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