Area Forecast Discussion
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232
FXUS62 KTAE 190807 AAA
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
407 AM EDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.Update...

As was mentioned as a good possibility, did end up changing PoPs
for today, with the main difference being 60% (likely) rain
chances near the coast, over the SE FL Big Bend, and over the
entire coastal waters this morning. This is due to a large area of
convection already breaking out over western portions of the
marine area, and the Gulf of Mexico waters to the south of both
Mobile and New Orleans.

&&

.Prev Discussion [344 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Although no severe weather is expected and storm total rainfall
amounts will likely be quite limited, the upcoming fcst for today
(and beyond for that matter) will be fairly complex. Deep layer
moisture, along with sct showers and thunderstorms off to our west
that are associated with an upper level trof are expected to dive
southeastward towards the CWA today. However, the northern portion
of this rain area is already beginning to lose its support as it
moves into the drier air over our region, and much of the remaining
moisture is expected to be entrained into an upper level low which
is progged to develop a cutoff circulation just to our east by this
evening. This makes for a very challenging PoP fcst for today, which
will likely need to be updated as the situation unfolds. For now, am
going with 20% to 40% from NE to SW this morning, then 20% to 50%
generally from W to E this afternoon. Total rainfall amounts are
expected to range from 0.05" to 0.10" across SE AL and much of the
FL Panhandle to 0.15" to 0.25" further to the east, with up to 0.35"
possible over the extreme SE FL Big Bend. With plenty of mid and
high level cloudiness to go with the sct showers and isolated
thunderstorms, high temps are expected to be held down into the mid
to upper 80s this afternoon.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

With the exception of some convergent showers on Saturday
(primarily east of Albany and Tallahassee), the weekend should be
rather suppressed WRT convective coverage as the Tri-State region
resides on the stable side of a mid/upper low/trough. The lower
heights and cooler atmospheric profile should yield a couple of
cooler-than-typical afternoons. Expect highs in the mid 80s on
Saturday, and nearing 90 on Sunday.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

There is a little uncertainty in the models regarding the exact
evolution of the mid-upper level flow pattern next week, although
it has been a consistent trend to show significant amplification
over North America. The one consistent trend has been the
establishment of a persistent easterly low-level flow regime
across our area as another strong surface high builds into the
Northeastern US. This should keep isolated to scattered showers in
the forecast (mainly in the late afternoon and early evening),
with temperatures moderating close to seasonal normals.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals through
the period with some MVFR level Vis possible at VLD this morning.
Also, a brief period of MVFR conditions will again be possible
this afternoon at all sites except DHN.


.Marine...

As high pressure builds south today through tonight, winds will
increase to near cautionary levels beginning this afternoon. Winds
will then gradually subside through the weekend as the calm center
of the ridge move further into the Southeast.


.Fire Weather...

No fire weather concerns are expected for the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Generally light rainfall amounts are expected for the foreseeable
future, except in very localized instances. Therefore, we are not
expecting any significant flooding issues over the next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   89  68  86  67  89 /  40  50  20  10  10
Panama City   88  71  86  71  88 /  60  50  20  10  10
Dothan        89  66  85  65  89 /  20  30  10  10  10
Albany        88  67  83  66  89 /  50  30  30  10  10
Valdosta      87  66  84  65  88 /  50  40  40  10  10
Cross City    87  66  86  65  88 /  60  50  40  20  20
Apalachicola  87  72  84  72  85 /  60  50  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GOULD
NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...LAMERS






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