Area Forecast Discussion
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161 FXUS62 KTAE 221532 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1132 AM EDT Mon Sep 22 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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14 UTC surface analysis shows a cold front moving toward the forecast area, generally along a line from Columbus GA to Savannah GA. Vapor imagery and 500 mb analysis from earlier this morning show a high amplitude trough moving into the Southern U.S. The KTAE sounding this morning was quite dry throughout the depth of the sounding with a precipitable water that is already 2 SD off the mean for September. Despite this, upstream observations and vapor imagery do show a corridor of moisture just ahead of the approaching trough axis. The combination of deep layer forcing and a narrow corridor of moisture along the front, should be enough to allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop near the frontal zone into the afternoon hours. Even though it will be warm today, surface instability will be limited as dewpoints are generally in the mid to upper 60s. As the large amplitude trough approaches, mid and upper level flow will accelerate providing for a decent amount of 3-6km shear of 35 to 40 kts. So while instability will be meager, this dynamical forcing may provide a narrow window this afternoon where a few storms across Southern Georgia could be strong. With it being dry out ahead of the front, expect mostly sunny skies across much of the area until late afternoon, so highs should be able to make it into the lower 90s.
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&& .Prev Discussion [241 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... The approaching cold front to our northwest will push through the area today and tonight. The upper level shortwave trough is forecast to break off into a cutoff low overnight and sit over the coast of the Carolinas, which will stall the front tomorrow in the eastern Big Bend and across southeastern Georgia. The highest chances for rain tonight will be in south-central Georgia, moving to the Taylor-Lafayette-Dixie area Tuesday and staying highest in that area through Wednesday. Highs will be cooler, in the mid to upper 80s on Tuesday, low to mid 80s on Wednesday. Lows will be cooler as well. Tonight, they`re expected to dip into the upper 50s in southeast Alabama, into the 60s elsewhere. Lows in the 60s Tuesday night as well. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... A ridge of surface high pressure is still expected to set up from the Northeast into parts of the Great Lakes through much of the extended forecast period. This will set up a long stretch of east to northeast low-level flow in our forecast area and the entire region. Slightly below normal temperatures will continue under that pattern. Isolated to scattered showers are expected Wednesday and Thursday, with increasing rain chances toward the weekend as an upper level trough is forecast to develop along the Gulf coast, and deeper moisture advects back into the area. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Tuesday] Expect VFR conditions to prevail at the terminals throughout much of the upcoming period, even as a weak cold front approaches the region from the NW today. However, do think there is some potential for a brief period of MVFR Vis late tonight at TLH and VLD, and do have convective Prob30s at DHN and ABY for this afternoon where PoPs are 40%. Any showers or storms could also briefly reduce the Vis to MVFR levels here as well. Elsewhere, only have VCTS groups for this current package. .Marine... Winds generally from the east-northeast will increase to cautionary levels in the wake of a cold front starting after midnight tonight. Tuesday night through Wednesday night, winds will peak around 20 knots with seas of to 5 to 6 feet, likely reaching advisory criteria over our western offshore waters. Winds and seas will lower Thursday and are expected to remain below headline criteria through the rest of the period. .Fire Weather... Increasing moisture over the next several days will keep afternoon relative humidities well away from any fire weather concerns. .Hydrology... Rainfall totals through Friday are expected to be 1" or less across the area, with the highest rainfall totals in the eastern Big Bend. Since local rivers are at or near normal levels, these totals are not expected to cause rises into flood stage.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 92 66 87 66 84 / 30 40 20 10 30 Panama City 90 69 86 69 84 / 30 50 10 10 20 Dothan 89 61 84 62 83 / 40 20 10 10 10 Albany 89 63 84 63 83 / 40 30 10 10 20 Valdosta 92 65 85 65 82 / 30 40 20 20 30 Cross City 89 67 87 67 85 / 30 30 30 30 50 Apalachicola 88 70 85 72 84 / 20 40 20 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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