Area Forecast Discussion
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886 FXUS62 KTAE 260251 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1051 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Little substantive change to the forecast was necessary this evening. High pressure will keep most of the area rain-free. KJAX radar shows some showers coming in off the Atlantic in the strong northeast flow. These typically do not survive all the way to our zones, but we did keep in a 10 PoP for our eastern zones just in case on makes it. Isolated convection is expected to develop over the marine area later tonight.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Wednesday]... VFR conditions will prevail through the period with winds 15 to 20 MPH will be possible again tomorrow, primarily in the afternoon hours.
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&& .Prev Discussion [303 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]... The airmass over our forecast area, especially in the mid troposphere, will be warm and very dry- an environment that`s not favorable for deep moist convection. We can`t completely rule out a few showers in some areas, especially east and southeast of Tallahassee, where isolated, relatively shallow showers (associated with mesoscale perturbations in the easterly flow) are possible. Highs will be in the lower to mid 90s, lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. .Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]... After a dry day on Thursday, The GFS and ECMWF forecast the return of a moisture-rich boundary layer on Friday and Saturday as the deep layer flow shifts from east to south. However, neither model shows much in the way of Q-G forcing with this return in moisture, and the mid layer tropospheric moisture isn`t that impressive. This would suggest near climo PoPs (peaking around 40% at each site`s locally-favored diurnal peak). The GFS and ECMWF diverge a bit Sunday and Monday, as the GFS forecasts plentiful deep layer moisture (and even some weak Q-G forcing) over our region as a series of short wave troughs translate eastward over the Gulf Coast states. The ECMWF rebuilds a 500 mb high (and dry, sinking air aloft) over our forecast area, which would result in below- climo PoPs and above-climo high temperatures. The GFS hasn`t been very consistent from run to run. Additionally, we`re heading into the climatological transition to lower PoPs. Our forecast is a blend of the two solutions, with a little more weight given to the drier ECMWF solution. .Marine... The latest NWP guidance is consistent in forecasting marginal advisory conditions across much of our marine area overnight, with a gradual slackening off of winds and seas on Tuesday. .Fire Weather... Although drier than recent days, relative humidity levels over the next several days will not fall to critical thresholds. Thus, Red Flag conditions are not expected. .Hydrology... With little to no rain expected over the next few days, river stages and flows should continue to run below normal.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 69 93 71 94 70 / 10 10 20 20 10 Panama City 73 92 75 92 75 / 10 10 20 20 10 Dothan 66 92 69 93 68 / 0 10 10 10 10 Albany 66 92 68 93 68 / 0 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 69 92 66 93 67 / 10 20 10 20 10 Cross City 71 92 69 93 69 / 10 30 10 20 10 Apalachicola 74 91 76 90 76 / 10 10 20 20 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal Franklin. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay- Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM. && $$ NEAR TERM...WOOL SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GODSEY MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/GOULD

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