Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 191746
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
146 PM EDT Tue Aug 19 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
A fairly high coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected
through sunset with a diminishing trend after sunset. Given ample
instability, the presence of an upper level shortwave, and some
enhanced low level winds (for August standards), expect the threat
of a few severe storms to continue through the remainder of the
afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday Night]...
As a ridge of high pressure over the Gulf coast moves inland, we
will quickly start to see drier, hotter weather. With the sea-breeze
still coming into play, we will still likely see scattered coverage
of afternoon thunderstorms, staying mostly in north Florida, but the
chances are lower than they normally are for this time of year.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s across the area Wednesday,
mostly upper 90s on Thursday. Although the airmass in place will be
relatively dry, we`ll still be humid enough to make the heat feel
even more uncomfortable- heat index values will rise to the 100-105
degree range Wednesday, 104-108 Thursday. Lows will only be in the
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
Conditions are expected to stay hot and relatively dry through early
next week as a strong ridging of high pressure builds inland and
stays in place until it begins to weaken late this weekend. A long
stretch of hot days is on tap with highs expected to reach the upper
90s Thursday through Sunday, decreasing only slightly to the mid 90s
Monday and Tuesday when rain chances increase again after the ridge
begins to weaken.
[Through 18Z Wednesday] A fairly high coverage of afternoon showers
and thunderstorms is expected with a decreasing trend after sunset.
A few of the storms could be strong to severe. VFR conditions are
expected to prevail outside of the storms, except for the
possibility of some MVFR conditions around sunrise.
With high pressure over the northern Gulf, winds will generally be
from the west-southwest at 10 knots or less, with surges along the
coastline to about 15 knots in the evenings. Waves are expected to
remain around 2 feet or less through the period.
Red flag conditions are not expected for the next several days.
Rainfall totals through the week are expected to be less than an
inch with localized higher amounts possible. With all area rivers
below action stage, no flooding is expected.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 75 96 75 98 76 / 30 30 20 30 20
Panama City 78 92 78 94 78 / 20 20 10 20 20
Dothan 74 96 75 98 75 / 30 20 20 20 20
Albany 73 97 75 99 75 / 30 20 20 20 10
Valdosta 73 96 74 98 74 / 30 20 20 30 20
Cross City 75 94 75 96 74 / 10 30 20 30 20
Apalachicola 77 92 76 93 78 / 10 20 10 20 10