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654
FXUS62 KTAE 180150
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2013


.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Thunderstorms continue to cross through the northern forecast area
staying primarily in Alabama and Georgia.  PoPs were bumped up in the
current period to match the pattern of precipitation, but from 06Z to
12Z rain chances will remain just at or below 20 percent. High
relative humidities will accompany minimum temperatures in the
lower 70s tonight. Besides adjusting the PoPs, the previous
forecast remains on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
Weak upper level troughing across the southeast states will
continue through the short term period. A weak frontal boundary
will sag southward into the area on Tuesday and Wednesday and
provide a focus for scattered afternoon convection, mainly across
the northern areas on Tuesday and then pushing farther south on
Wednesday. Temperatures will remain near the seasonal averages.

&&

.LONG TERM [Thursday through Monday]...
A fairly seasonal period is expected with scattered afternoon and
evening convection each day. Some days will likely have slightly
higher PoPs than others depending on the timing of individual weak
shortwaves, which is hard to forecast in the long term. No major
synoptic scale systems are expected to impact the area during the
period. Temperatures are expected to remain near their seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
[Through 00z Wednesday] With storms dissipating as the evening
continues, VFR conditions will be seen overnight for all
terminals. KDHN, KVLD, and KABY are expected to see MVFR Cigs from
09Z to 14Z. After this period VFR conditions will once again
prevail. After 18Z tomorrow, the northernmost terminals will have
the greatest chance for TSRA to develop, but as of right now only
VCSH are included in the TAFs.

&&

.MARINE...
The subtropical ridge will be the dominant feature across the
northern Gulf of Mexico this week, yielding mainly light southwest
to west flow and low seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag conditions are unlikely this week as RH values will
remain above locally critical levels. The combination of deep
mixing and somewhat stronger winds aloft will help dispersion
values climb above 75 Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River gauges are expected to remain below flood stage for at least
the next several days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   73  93  74  91  71 / 10  20  20  50  30
Panama City   78  89  75  88  76 / 20  20  30  50  30
Dothan        73  92  72  92  72 / 50  50  50  50  30
Albany        73  92  72  93  71 / 40  50  40  50  30
Valdosta      71  92  73  90  70 / 30  30  30  50  30
Cross City    72  91  74  90  72 / 10  10  10  40  30
Apalachicola  77  88  75  87  74 / 10  10  20  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Heller/Gould
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...Heller/Moore
MARINE...Fournier/DVD
FIRE WEATHER...Fournier/DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD