Area Forecast Discussion
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257 FXUS62 KTAE 301919 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 319 PM EDT Tue Sep 30 2014 ...A Taste of Fall weather is on the way for the weekend... .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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An upper level ridge is moving in from the west. At the Sfc low pressure and associated moisture will move out of the area this evening. Drier air will move in from the northwest. The northwestern part of the CWA will likely see some sunshine in the early evening hours. Elsewhere cloud cover will persist until shortly after sunset. Max temps this afternoon will likely be in the low 80s. The lingering cloud cover leads to some uncertainty with highs this afternoon. Min temps overnight will be in the mid to upper 60s. .Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]... Any drier air that moves into the region overnight will be short lived, as low level moisture will be back on the increase for Wednesday. However, skies should finally become partly cloudy during the day, which should allow temps to climb into the upper 80s in the afternoon. Most areas should remain free from any showers and storms tomorrow, with the exception of the SE FL Big Bend where 20-30% rain chances are expected near the stalled out surface trof over the FL Peninsula and northern Gulf of Mexico. On Thursday, high temps around 90 degrees are expected away from the coast, with gradually increasing rain chances from W to E over the region through Thursday night, peaking at 40% over SE AL and much of the FL Panhandle towards Friday morning. This convection will develop well out ahead of an approaching cold front from the NW, with showers and storms becoming more numerous on Friday as discussed below. .Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Friday, while the Tri-State region remains in the warm and humid air mass. This convection will be generated by an approaching cold front from the NW, which is now fcst to push rapidly through the CWA on Friday night, with any remaining showers and storms coming to an end by Saturday morning. At this time, it appears that the best forcing out ahead of this front will remain well to our north, so no strong or severe storms are expected at this time. However, this will be a strong cold front in terms of changing air masses, as our first real taste of fall weather is ushered in behind it. High temps will generally be in the upper 70s on both Sat. and Sun. with much drier air, before a gradual moderating trend returns them back into the lower to middle 80s for Mon. and Tue. The greatest impact behind the front will be low temperatures, as they are likely to bottom out in the upper 40s to the middle 50s on both Sun. and Mon. mornings.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Wednesday] Satellite imagery shows a large area of MVFR cigs across the region. ABY and DHN will scatter out late afternoon/early evening. TLH, ECP and VLD will scatter out shortly after sunset. Expect MVFR conditions in the early morning hours at TLH and VLD ending shortly after sunrise.
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&& .Marine...
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Once the 10 to 15 knot northeasterly winds die down this evening, light winds and low seas will dominate the Coastal Waters through Thursday night. On Friday, southwest winds will be on the increase out ahead of the next cold front, before they shift quickly to the northwest then north behind it on Friday night and Saturday. With a fairly tight pressure pattern expected behind this strong cold front, winds and seas are expected to reach at least cautionary levels on Saturday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Fire weather concerns are not expected for the next few days. A cold front will move into the region on Friday bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms. Much drier and cooler air will arrive behind this front for the weekend. Relative humidity values may drop below critical levels by Sunday afternoon.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Although we could see some periods of heavy rainfall on Friday, the fast moving nature of this cold front should limit storm total rainfall amounts to between 1 and 2 inches over most areas, with isolated higher totals possible. Since the last rainfall event produced lower basin averages than expected, this upcoming system should only cause modest rises on our area rivers and streams at best.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 69 89 70 90 71 / 10 10 10 30 30 Panama City 71 86 73 87 75 / 10 10 10 30 40 Dothan 66 88 67 89 69 / 0 10 10 30 40 Albany 66 89 67 89 69 / 0 10 10 20 30 Valdosta 67 89 67 91 69 / 10 20 20 20 20 Cross City 69 89 69 90 69 / 20 30 20 30 20 Apalachicola 72 85 73 85 75 / 10 10 10 30 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal Franklin. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT SHORT TERM...GOULD LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...MCDERMOTT MARINE...GOULD FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY HYDROLOGY...GOULD

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