Area Forecast Discussion
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904 FXUS62 KTAE 310130 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 930 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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The large scale pattern remain highly amplified with ridging over Wrn 1/3rd and troughing over Ern 2/3rd becoming increasingly broad from N-S. At surface, cold front across S/Cntrl Gulf of Mex Newd to meso-low near JAX. N of front, strong high pressure NWD to across local region. Locally this translates to NLY flow sfc-H7 then WLY flow above. PWATS generally a bone dry 0.5 inches.A shower or two is possible across extreme ERN GA counties closest to meso low as seen on NM4 but not other HI RES guidance. Chances too low for inclusion in GRIDS. With dry air and light to calm winds, low temperatures will once again be below average (generally in the mid 60s, except around 70 at the beaches and urban areas). Some sites will again approach record low for July 31st. Some sites include: SITE FORECAST LOW RECORD LOW Tallahassee AP 66 63 1886 Apalachicola 69 69 1984 Cross City 66 69 1954 The only caveat is some high cirrus streaming Ewd from a shortwave that will reach the Lwr Ms Valley by sunrise and possibly temper mins across NW portions of our CWA.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Friday] After a few very dry days, we will begin to see an influx of low level moisture and possibly isolated showers across the Valdosta region on Thursday. A cig may develop around 5kft in the afternoon at VLD, ABY and TLH. Otherwise, unrestricted vis/unlimited cigs through the period.
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&& .Prev Discussion [135 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]... A gradual moistening trend in the low-mid troposphere is expected to end the work week, with 1000-700mb flow shifting from the current northwesterly direction to southerly or southeasterly by Thursday. PWATs should climb closer to normal levels by Friday, although they should remain below normal for another day (Thursday). This will set up another day of relatively dry weather tomorrow. There are some indications on model guidance that a few showers and storms could develop in the mid-late afternoon Thursday in our south-central Georgia counties with a surface pressure trough and convergence zone. A small PoP around 15% has been added for this possibility. Scattered storms will be possible over the entire area on Friday as greater low-mid level moisture arrives. Highs should be in the low-mid 90s each day with lows around 70 each night. .Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]... The long term pattern will feature a nearly stationary mid-upper level longwave trough axis extending from the Great Lakes to the central Gulf coast (in other words, just west of our area). This will set up a stretch of several days from the weekend into early next week with large scale forcing for ascent and PWATs around 2" (slightly above normal). Just considering those factors, we would expect days with relatively high convective coverage. However, the low-mid level flow will be out of the south or southeast, which also tends to favor a rainy pattern. Therefore, PoPs for Sunday to Tuesday have been increased into the "likely" range (~60%) with slightly cooler high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. .Marine... Winds over the eastern half of the coastal waters could approach SCEC levels later tonight, but should fall just short. Otherwise, a weak surface pressure pattern will likely keep winds light and seas 2 feet or less for the foreseeable future. .Fire Weather... Unusually dry conditions (with low RH and rain chances) will continue into Thursday, but red flag conditions are not expected. A much wetter period is expected this weekend. .Hydrology... All area rivers are below bank full stage, with some even in low flow stage. A cool, dry airmass is currently in place over the southeast, so there are no significant chances of rain until Saturday. Rainfall next week will be near our seasonal average, so no significant rises are anticipated through the next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Tallahassee 66 94 70 93 71 / 0 0 10 30 20 Panama City 70 90 74 89 74 / 0 0 10 30 20 Dothan 65 92 70 91 71 / 0 0 10 40 20 Albany 68 93 71 91 72 / 0 10 10 40 20 Valdosta 68 96 70 95 71 / 0 10 10 40 20 Cross City 66 94 69 92 71 / 0 10 10 30 20 Apalachicola 69 89 73 88 74 / 0 0 10 20 20 && .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOCK SHORT TERM...LAMERS LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...BLOCK MARINE...LAMERS FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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