Area Forecast Discussion
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473 FXUS62 KTAE 271604 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1104 AM EST Thu Nov 27 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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12 UTC surface analysis shows the dry cold front associated with the clipper system moving through the Carolinas had passed through the forecast area. Not too much in the way of drier air behind this system, but it has provided a reinforcing shot of cooler air. High pressure across the Central Plains will move eastward today. With sunny skies, but weak cold advection, expect highs only in the lower 60s in North Florida and in the upper 50s across Southern Alabama and Southwest Georgia.
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&& .Marine...
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Winds have decreased slightly across the near shore legs to the point that the small craft advisory can be discontinued. Further offshore winds remain around 20 knots with seas slow to subside. With the offshore buoys occasionally reporting 8 and 9 foot seas, will extend the SCA through Friday morning as a slight increase in offshore winds is expected overnight.
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&& .Prev Discussion [323 AM EST]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... The upper level trough along the eastern seaboard will move east over the western Atlantic with deep layer ridging gradually building in over the local region. The position of the surface high will be centered over the Tennessee Valley by daybreak Friday. Overnight winds will be light from the north but we still should see a light freeze across most inland areas. Highs will remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). Another light freeze is possible Friday night, mainly along and east of the river. With rising heights as the upper ridge builds in, temps will be warmer on Saturday with highs mainly in the mid to upper 60s. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... The deep layer ridge will hold through Sunday then move east with the upper flow becoming nearly zonal through the remainder of the period. The next cold front will approach late Thursday but any rain with this system should hod off until Thursday night or Friday. Highs will be seasonal in the lower 70s with lows in the gradually moderating from the lower to mid 40s Saturday night to the lower 50s by Wednesday night. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions under clear skies will prevail through the period. The only impact to aviation weather will be gusty northwest winds during the daylight hours. Gusts will be up around 20 mph. .Fire Weather... After several days of wetting rains, drier air has finally arrived today and will remain in place for several days. The driest day will be Friday. However, winds will not be high enough to achieve red flag criteria on that day. Additionally, fuel moisture is high after several days of rain. High dispersion indices are expected once again today with values around 75 across parts of Southeast AL and inland portions of the central and eastern FL Big Bend. .Hydrology... The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River, minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are anticipated in the near future.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 62 32 57 30 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 62 39 56 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 58 32 55 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 59 30 57 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 60 31 56 31 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 64 32 58 31 68 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 64 39 57 38 66 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST Friday for Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...WOOL MARINE...GODSEY FIRE WEATHER...WOOL HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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