Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
225 FXUS62 KTAE 211450 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1050 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014 .Near Term [Today]...
-- Changed Discussion --
The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1022 mb high pressure system centered at Dothan, and a weak trough from coastal NC to north GA. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed a region of higher heights centered near the LA coast, and a small, weak vorticity max near Tallahassee. Precip Water values were slightly below climatology across our region, and the deep northerly flow will keep the sea breeze fronts pinned at the coast until late afternoon. Other than the weak vorticity max, the synoptic steup for today would suggest below-average PoPs. The only NWP guidance that generates much deep moist convection, and does it ever, is the 09 UTC local WRF run. The other WRFs and various MOS keep PoPs low (20% or less) this afternoon. We`re going to assume that the subtle vorticity max over our area will not be a significant player, and that the 09 UTC WRF is an outlier; so we will stick with the 20% PoP we inherited. Based on our 8 am EDT KTAE sounding and recent numerical guidance, we lowered the forecast dewpoints a little for this afternoon. This would keep much of our forecast area below heat advisory levels (except in the FL Panhandle, where dewpoints will remain higher) this afternoon. However, since heat index values will still be on the high side (generally around 105) we will leave the inherited heat advisory up for our entire forecast area. The actual highs for this afternoon will be around 100 degrees, except lower 90s at the beaches.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Aviation...
-- Changed Discussion --
[Through 12Z Friday]...Other than isolated TSRA this afternoon and evening, generally unlimited cigs and unrestricted vis are expected into the overnight hours. Brief peiod of light fog/haze are possible around dawn Friday. Except for an onshore sea breeze near 10 KT late this afternoon at KECP, winds will be light from the north.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Prev Discussion [236 AM EDT]...
-- Changed Discussion --
.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Very hot and much drier than normal conditions will continue with the deep layer ridging in place. High temperatures will be at record or near record levels both Friday and Saturday afternoon. Max temps are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees at most inland areas with heat indices in the 105-110 range throughout the Tri-state region. Thus, the Heat Advisory will continue at least through the short term period. Overnight lows will be warm in the mid 70s. Rain chances will be 20% or less. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... It will continue to be hot and relatively dry over the coming weekend as ridging persists and builds inland. With this fairly long stretch of hot days and mild nights Heat Advisories are again likely, although heat indices will become more dependent upon afternoon cloudiness as we move into the early part of the week. An east-west surface trough will begin to settle south across the region late in the weekend into early next week as an upper level trough digs southward across the western Atlantic on the front side of the strong upper ridge. This may increase precipitation chances early in the week as well as cloud cover which would suppress daytime heating somewhat. The main story will be what happens midweek into the latter part of next week with the potential development of a tropical system moving into the Gulf. Global models are not in agreement with each other, nor are they showing much run-to-run consistency at this time, but this will be monitored carefully in the next several days. .Marine... Light west to northwest winds will continue through the weekend and then swing around to the east early next week. Seas will be 2 feet or less. .Fire Weather... Despite the very hot temperatures today and Friday, dewpoints will remain high enough to keep humidity values above critical levels. Red Flag conditions are not expected at this time. .Hydrology... The next few days will be drier with no significant rain expected. With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
-- Changed Discussion --
Tallahassee 99 75 100 76 100 / 20 10 20 10 20 Panama City 95 78 97 79 97 / 20 10 20 10 20 Dothan 98 76 99 75 101 / 20 10 20 10 20 Albany 100 75 101 75 101 / 20 10 20 10 20 Valdosta 99 74 100 74 101 / 20 10 20 10 20 Cross City 97 75 98 76 98 / 20 10 20 10 20 Apalachicola 95 77 95 78 94 / 20 10 20 10 20
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
-- Changed Discussion --
FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin- Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty- Madison-South Walton-Washington. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-Berrien- Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Early- Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-Quitman- Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva- Henry-Houston. GM...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ NEAR TERM...FOURNIER SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...WESTON

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.