Area Forecast Discussion
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637 FXUS62 KTAE 291532 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1132 AM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Surface trough remains well defined just offshore this morning with a sharp shift from southerly to northeasterly flow noted along the boundary in the surface analysis. A few rotating cells have developed over Apalachee Bay this morning, along this boundary. However, all of this activity has remained well offshore so far. Otherwise, a very moist and tropical atmosphere remains in place this morning, with precipitable waters close to 2.3 inches on the 12z KTAE sounding. At the mid-levels, a weak shortwave was analyzed across the forecast area at 12Z, with another weak shortwave crossing the Mississippi River. Despite the abundant moisture, nearshore boundary, and weak energy aloft, the regional radar mosaic is very underwhelming with very light return across most of the area. The heaviest precip over land this morning has been around the Albany area, where radar estimates are approaching 2 inches over the past 4 to 6 hours. Still expect pretty broad coverage of rain through the afternoon, but most of the totals should be pretty light. However, given the tropical atmosphere and the approach of another weak mid-level shortwave, I am a bit reluctant to drop the Flash Flood Watch just yet. Some very heavy rain rates were noted in cells over southwest Georgia earlier this morning, and the potential still exists for localized heavy rain through the afternoon, so will leave the watch in place for now.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Tuesday] IFR/MVFR cigs will likely persist through most of the day at all area terminals. There may be some brief improvement during the afternoon hours, but ceilings will likely lower again after sunset and persist throught he overnight hours.
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&& .Prev Discussion [311 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... A shortwave upper level trough will swing northeastward through the Appalachian mountain range, lifting the stationary surface front currently laid out across NE FL from Cross City to Jacksonville today and tonight, finally pushing it out of the area Tuesday. Tonight, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be most likely (60-70%) in south-central Georgia and the Florida Big Bend, with lower chances (30-50%) to the west. The highest rainfall amounts will fall during the daytime hours, but isolated areas in south Georgia and the Big Bend (where PWATs will still be over 2") may see heavy rainfall early in the night. Tuesday through Wednesday, chances for showers and thunderstorms will be much lower (30% or less), with the highest chances staying in the eastern Big Bend. Lows tonight and Tuesday night will be in the mid to upper 70s. Highs will be in the mid 80s Tuesday, mid-upper 80s Wednesday. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... After a very wet pattern over much of the near and short term periods, we expect to have a brief break in the unsettled weather later on Tuesday and through Wednesday, as both Sfc and upper level ridging build in for a short time. Thereafter, showers and thunderstorms are expected to return to the fcst in earnest on Thursday and Friday, as the strongest cold front of the season thus far approaches from the NW. This cold front is expected to bring a real taste of fall to the region by Saturday and Sunday, with low temps possibly reaching the lower to middle 50s over the interior on Sunday morning, with much drier air also building in under the NW flow. High temps will still be very close to climo levels, however, generally in the lower to middle 80s on Sat and Sun. Before the frontal passage, above normal temperatures are expected to persist, with the warm and humid air struggling to budge. .Marine... A stationary front will finally exit the area Monday and Monday night, shifting the winds from southerly to westerly then northerly, returning back to southerly by mid week. Wind speeds will remain below headline criteria until early in the weekend, when another frontal passage may increase winds to cautionary levels. .Fire Weather... Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few days. .Hydrology... We have started to trim back the flash flood watch from northwest to southeast, and additional trimming is likely through the day today as convection gradually moves to the east. The heavy rain threat is isolated, so main stem river flooding is unlikely. Isolated spots within the watch area could still pick up 4-6" of rain in a short period of time, but most locations will not see that much.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 80 69 86 68 89 / 90 60 20 10 20 Panama City 83 70 86 71 87 / 90 40 20 10 20 Dothan 80 66 86 65 88 / 80 40 10 10 10 Albany 78 66 85 65 87 / 100 50 10 10 10 Valdosta 81 67 85 65 87 / 90 70 20 10 20 Cross City 83 70 86 67 88 / 90 60 30 20 20 Apalachicola 82 71 84 71 85 / 90 50 20 20 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla- Gadsden-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf- Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Lafayette- Leon-Liberty-Madison. High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for Coastal Franklin. GA...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Ben Hill- Berrien-Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-Grady-Irwin- Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Mitchell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...CAMP SHORT TERM...MOORE LONG TERM...GOULD AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...MOORE FIRE WEATHER...DVD HYDROLOGY...DVD

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