Area Forecast Discussion
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874 FXUS62 KTAE 301356 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 956 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The weakening cold front and upper trough continue to push through the forecast area this morning. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed ahead of the weak upper troughing. Therefore, a 20 PoP was inserted through the early afternoon across portions of the Florida big bend and adjacent southern Georgia. Otherwise, highs will still be rather mild, with afternoon temps ranging from the mid 70s to the NW to the lower 80s well to the SE, with the much more significant cooling expected for tonight.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed west of TLH and VLD this morning, but any impact from these should be very brief.
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&& .Prev Discussion [409 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Tonight, a weak upper level wave will move off the Florida/Georgia coastline, slightly strengthening an already present area of surface low pressure off the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic coastlines. The main effect locally will be to continue forcing dry boundary layer air through through the Tri-State region and into the southeast Big Bend. Lows should fall into the 40s for most locations away from the coast. Friday, a very strong +PV anomaly will deepen and amplify the broad eastern CONUS trough as it dives through the Great Lakes region and into the Midwest. While heights aloft will lower through the day, 850mb temps should be near average. With ample mixing expected under strengthening northwesterly flow, we should be able to tap into the near normal low-layer temperatures keeping highs right around, or just below average for this time of year. An unseasonably strong (but dry) cold front associated with the aforementioned northern stream anomaly, will pass through the Tri- State region Friday night. CAA will commence and increase through the night. This should drive lows down into the upper 30s across much of southeast Alabama and south Georgia, with low 40s expected elsewhere. On Saturday, heights will be at their lowest as the deepest part of the trough nears the region. At the surface, strong Arctic high pressure will overspread the region ushering in quite strong and gusty surface winds which will continue the strong CAA. It is possible that only the southeast Big Bend of Florida will break into the 60s for highs on Saturday, with most locations remaining in the upper 50s. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... For Saturday Night, the surface ridge axis should drift closer which will lead to lighter boundary layer winds and reduced mixing. This should create the coldest night of the forecast period with lows away from the coast in the mid-upper 30s. This could be our first shot at frost of the winter season, but RH values could be a little too low for widespread frost. After that, a building ridge in the eastern US and transition to a +NAO/+AO state will lead to a gradual moderation in temperatures into next week with continued dry weather. .Marine... Cautionary level winds are expected today in the wake of a weak cold front. Winds will subside to just below headline levels tonight through Friday, but a strong cold front passing through Friday night is expected to increase winds and seas to solid advisory levels through Saturday. Gusts to gale force will be possible as well. .Fire Weather... As mentioned above, much drier air will be moving into the region today, and this will be re-enforced dramatically by a very strong dry cold front this weekend. While earlier it appeared as though Red Flag conditions would be likely for a good portion the Tri-State area at some point, the unseasonably chilly afternoon temperatures may keep the Red Flags at bay. .Hydrology... Dry conditions are expected over the next several days, with no impacts expected along area rivers and streams.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 78 46 74 42 59 / 20 0 0 0 0 Panama City 78 50 74 45 59 / 20 0 0 0 0 Dothan 74 44 73 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 75 44 73 38 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 78 49 73 41 58 / 20 0 0 0 0 Cross City 82 53 75 47 61 / 30 10 0 0 0 Apalachicola 78 53 73 47 59 / 20 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...DVD/GOULD SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...LAMERS AVIATION...DVD MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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