Area Forecast Discussion
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053
FXUS62 KTAE 311953
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
353 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
SPC HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT INCLUDES TWO OF OUR
SE AL ZONES AND OUR NORTHERN TIER GEORGIA ZONES UNTIL 8 PM EDT. AT
18Z, THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ALABAMA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. OUTSIDE OF
THE CONVECTIVE WATCH MOST OF OUR CWA HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER, THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND
BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL BE ALONG OR NORTH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA. POPS WILL BE TAPERED HIGHEST NORTH (50%) TO LOWEST (10%)
SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE AROUND 60 DEGREES WITH AREAS OF PATCHY DENSE FOG
LIKELY DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...
A SIMILAR PATTERN WILL SET UP ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. A WEAK VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH MAY BE JUST
ENOUGH TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY IS PREDICTED TO BE
SIMILAR WITH SBCAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE BY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER, SO
WHILE A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL, THE
OVERALL THREAT LOOKS A LITTLE LESS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

BY THURSDAY, THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING
STARTING TO BUILD TOWARD THE AREA. WITH LACK OF A FORCING
MECHANISM AND THE LOSS OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY, RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE LESS AND LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 50S.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST IS WITH
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DRIVING THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA, KEEPING RAIN
CHANCES IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. SOME NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THIS FRONT - ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES DROPPING A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS
THE REGION. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE, WITH MOST OF THE AREA IN THE MID 40S.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH AND THEN EAST OF THE
REGION BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, RESULTING IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AND
THE RETURN OF ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY THIS TIME WILL BE BACK ABOVE NORMAL, GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] THE DHN AND ABY TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A
FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE. AFTER CONVECTION
DIMINISHES LATER THIS EVENING, WE WILL ONCE AGAIN SEE DENSE FOG
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT INTO THE DAYBREAK HOURS. EXPECT AT LEAST BRIEF
PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTHERLY AFTER WEDNESDAY BEFORE
VEERING TO WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR CAUTIONARY LEVELS
SATURDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE MARINE
AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES
FOR THE REST OF THIS WEEK. DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE QUITE HIGH
ACROSS MOST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND BIG BEND ON WEDNESDAY AND
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG BEND AND VALDOSTA AREA OF GEORGIA ON
THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO RED FLAG CONCERNS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   62  84  58  82  56 /  20  30  20  20  10
PANAMA CITY   65  78  59  78  60 /  10  20  10  10  10
DOTHAN        61  82  58  82  57 /  30  30  20  20  10
ALBANY        59  82  58  81  57 /  40  40  20  30  10
VALDOSTA      62  83  59  81  58 /  30  40  20  20  10
CROSS CITY    62  82  59  81  59 /  10  30  20  10  10
APALACHICOLA  65  77  59  76  59 /  10  20  20  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...BARRY
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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