Area Forecast Discussion
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655 FXUS62 KTAE 241902 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 302 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A weak pressure pattern is in place over the southeast at the surface with light winds from the north. At upper levels, a shortwave trough is deepening as it swings across the southeast. This is helping develop and keep upper level clouds over the area, which will move eastward through the day as the trough does. Highs will be in the mid to upper 70s today, dropping to the mid 40s overnight. .Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]... The trough will be exiting east of the area at the start of the period with a large 592-dm upper high parked over TX. The ridge will build eastward during this period while losing some magnitude. By Monday morning, the ridge axis will be over FL. Surface high pressure will also gradually build eastward across the Gulf Coast states. This pattern will yield a continued stretch of dry weather and a warming trend. Daytime highs will be around 80 on Saturday and in the lower to mid 80s on Sunday. We will see one more night with lows in the mid to upper 40s Saturday night over the FL Big Bend and South Central GA with milder 50s further north and west. Low to mid 50s can be expected across the entire forecast area Sunday night. .Long Term [Monday Through Friday]... The upper ridge will continue to move east early in the period with a trough deepening into the Southeast by Thursday and Friday. A cold front will approach from the northwest on Wednesday and then slow down. There are still timing differences with the arrival of the front in our forecast area. However, any noticeably cooler air will not arrive until after the period. In the interim, temps will be above normal with highs gradually falling from the mid 80s on Monday to around 80 on Friday. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 50s inland with 60s near the coast.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the period with few to scattered cloud coverage around 20kft. Winds today and tomorrow will be from the north, generally staying 5 knots or less.
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&& .Marine...
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High pressure west of the area and low pressure well to the south will keep northeasterly flow in place over the waters through the weekend. Winds may occasionally approach 15 knots during the overnight hours but no headline conditions are expected. High pressure will slide over the waters by late Sunday into Monday with very light winds and minimal seas. As the high slides eastward, onshore flow will develop by late Monday and Tuesday.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Despite relative humidities in the 20 to 30 percent range today and Friday, winds will be too light to reach red flag criteria, although Leon county will be close to them today with high ERC values. By Sunday, relative humidity values will begin to increase again and no red flag conditions are expected through the period.
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&& .Hydrology...
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Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns across the region.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 44 81 49 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 54 80 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 47 79 53 85 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 45 80 51 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 45 79 49 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 45 80 46 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 53 78 54 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...WOOL

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