Area Forecast Discussion
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733 FXUS62 KTAE 281529 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1129 AM EDT Mon Jul 28 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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An unusual setup for late July is unfolding across the region today. A cold front, analyzed across Central Alabama and into Middle Georgia is moving southward toward our region. West southwesterly flow ahead of this front continues to keep dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Aloft, a trough moving out of the Ohio Valley continues to amplify while approaching the Mid Atlantic States. With the increased dynamical forcing combining with the summertime instability expect numerous showers and storms to develop later this afternoon ahead of the frontal boundary and move southward toward the coast. Modified soundings of 97/74 show over 4000 J/kg of SBCAPE with model guidance indicating the deep layer shear increasing to 25 to 30 kt. Soundings at KTAE/KFFC also reveal the presence of some mid level dry air, which will likely help support more sustained and intense downdrafts from the stronger storms. As a result, the primary concern for this afternoons storms are damaging winds. Freezing levels are getting high (15.8-16.1kft) but with so much instability and 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 7degC/km, can`t rule out some large hail this afternoon in the most intense storms. Given the good agreement between the high resolution guidance members, have increased pops to around 70 percent for our northern zones in the 21z-00z timeframe with around 60 percent after 00z for the counties along the I-10 corridor. Expect the severe threat to continue for a couple of hours after sunset as the synoptic forcing will help provide a focus for storms as the instability diminishes. The heat advisory remains in effect. Temperatures already this morning are a little warmer than forecast, and with storm development not anticipated til after 2 pm, heat indices in the 108 to 111 degree range are likely from late this morning through the afternoon hours.
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&& .Prev Discussion [323 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... By this evening, the cold front will be bisecting the forecast area and continuing to move steadily southeastward. A few strong to severe storms will remain possible out ahead of it through the evening hours with a gradual weakening trend expected overnight. The front should be through most of the area by dawn on Tuesday with the exception of the far southeast big bend. Significantly drier air in its wake will allow low temperatures to reach the mid 60s over most of the area by Wednesday morning with PoPs below 20%. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... The full latitude eastern CONUS trough will continue to amplify through the period. The front which will move across the area early in the week will usher in much drier and cooler air through Thursday, with the possibility of reaching some record morning lows. The long standing records for this period at Tallahassee are: July 30 - 67 (1927) July 31 - 63 (1896) Aug 1 - 64 (1993) Expect generally dry and relatively cool conditions for Wednesday and Thursday with very low PoPs. Thursday and Friday morning lows, July 31st and Aug 1st, will range from 65-70. By late Thursday, moisture will begin to increase once again across the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the main upper trough moves into the forecast area. For Friday through the weekend expect a return to scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. The increased convection for the end of the week and weekend will keep high temperatures in the 85 to 90 range across the area. .Aviation... [Through 06Z Tuesday] Expect VFR conditions into the early afternoon at all terminals. Thunderstorms will likely impact all terminals during the afternoon and evening hours, spreading from north to south. A few a these storms could have very strong wind gusts. Activity should be south of all terminals by around 02Z tonight. .Marine... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge to the south and the approaching cold front to the north will maintain westerly winds at exercise caution levels at times through tonight. Winds will gradually diminish and become offshore by Tuesday night into Wednesday. .Fire Weather... Red flag conditions are not expected for the next couple of days. Drier conditions will move in on Tuesday in the wake of a front and continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the lower 30s. .Hydrology... Thunderstorms along a cold front could bring some locally heavy rainfall to the area this afternoon and this evening, but the system will remain progressive and widespread impacts from heavy rain are not expected.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 98 73 94 66 93 / 50 60 10 0 10 Panama City 90 76 92 72 91 / 50 60 10 0 10 Dothan 96 69 92 66 90 / 70 40 0 0 10 Albany 97 71 91 66 92 / 70 40 0 0 10 Valdosta 99 72 93 65 93 / 50 60 10 0 10 Cross City 93 76 94 67 93 / 30 50 30 10 10 Apalachicola 90 76 92 70 90 / 40 50 20 0 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT /5 PM CDT/ this evening for Calhoun- Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf- Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay- Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Wakulla- Inland Walton-Jackson-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton- Washington. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay- Coastal Gulf-South Walton. GA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Berrien- Brooks-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Early-Grady-Lanier-Lowndes- Miller-Mitchell-Seminole-Thomas. AL...Heat Advisory until 5 PM CDT this afternoon for Geneva-Houston. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...GODSEY SHORT TERM...DVD LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...DVD FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...DVD

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