Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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772 FXUS62 KTAE 260803 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 403 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
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A RATHER RAPIDLY STEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN TODAY AS IT HEADS E-SE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION TOWARDS OUR CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. WHILE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION, THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE PLENTY STRONG ENOUGH TO ADVECT IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND GIVE OUR REGION A GOOD DOSE OF SCT TO NUMRS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS. BEHIND THIS STEEP TROF, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BACK TO TODAY, CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MOST AREAS, TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE SE FL BIG BEND WHICH MAY NOT SEE ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY]... THE RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COOLER...DRIER WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. IRONICALLY...THE ANNUAL SPRINGTIME TALLAHASSEE FESTIVITIES SCHEDULED FOR SATURDAY WILL COINCIDE WITH ONE OF THE ONLY COOL DAYS IN MARCH. LOWS FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S AROUND DOTHAN...TO MID 60S AROUND CROSS CITY...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO MID 70S SOUTHEAST. IT WILL BE BREEZE FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY. LOWS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. IT WILL NOT BE AS WINDY SATURDAY...AND THE MORE DIRECT SUN ANGLE WILL MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COMFORTABLE IN THE SUN. .LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]... THE DEEP LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THIS WEEKEND WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY EASTWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED UNTIL MID WEEK...WHEN A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY APPROACH OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. THE 00 UTC ECMWF HAS THIS FEATURE FAR TO OUR SOUTH...WHICH WOULD INDICATE LITTLE EFFECT ON OUR LOCAL WEATHER. THE GFS STILL HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT IS MUCH WEAKER THAN IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. AFTER A CHILLY SUNDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN BACK TO AVERAGE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE 20 PERCENT OR LESS...EXCEPT FOR A MODEST INCREASE MID WEEK.
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&& .AVIATION...
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[THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY] VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR MOST OF THE TAF CYCLE, BUT A FEW PERIODS OF MVFR TO EVEN LIFR (WHICH HAS OCCURRED BRIEFLY AT TLH) WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND INTO EARLY THIS MORNING. THEREAFTER, ANY RESTRICTIONS IN VIS OR CIGS WILL LIKELY COME FROM DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SW TO NE.
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&& .MARINE...
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MODERATE SOUTH WINDS TODAY WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TODAY, AND EVEN WITH DRIER AIR COMING IN BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON, IF THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE TO DROP LOW ENOUGH AND THE WIND SPEEDS WERE TO REMAIN ELEVATED, ERC VALUES WOULD LIKELY BE TOO LOW ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE RECENT RAINFALL FOR ANY WATCHES OR WARNINGS. BY SATURDAY, HOWEVER, THE AIR MASS WILL BE EXTREMELY DRY, AND DEPENDING ON OTHER CRITICAL PARAMETERS, RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BECOME POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA, AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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NEARLY ALL OF THE RIVERS WERE BELOW THEIR LOCAL ACTION STAGES THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT GENERAL RAINFALL TOTALS TO RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST VALUES LIKELY TO BE NEAR THE COAST. LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES ARE POSSIBLE. THIS IS UNLIKELY TO CAUSE MAJOR RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS...ESPECIALLY IF THE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS OCCUR DOWNSTREAM AS PREDICTED.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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TALLAHASSEE 79 63 69 40 65 / 50 70 40 10 10 PANAMA CITY 74 60 66 47 62 / 60 70 30 0 10 DOTHAN 78 53 64 40 62 / 50 70 20 0 10 ALBANY 79 57 65 39 61 / 40 70 30 10 10 VALDOSTA 80 62 68 41 62 / 30 70 60 10 10 CROSS CITY 83 66 73 44 66 / 30 60 80 10 10 APALACHICOLA 76 64 70 46 63 / 60 70 40 0 10
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&& .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AL...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD SHORT TERM...FOURNIER LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GOULD MARINE...FOURNIER FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER

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