Area Forecast Discussion
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670
FXUS62 KTAE 291442
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1042 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weakening cold front will affect the region today through the
overnight hours. Dynamics are not overly strong and moisture is
only around average for this time of year with PWAT values
generally 1.0-1.3 inches. The highest PoPs for the day are
expected to be across the western area at around 50% with a
scattered coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms, then
spreading eastward during the first half of the overnight hours.
As for temps, expect another fairly warm day, with highs in the
lower 80s to the west and middle 80s to the east with higher
dewpoints across the board compared to yesterday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12z Thursday] Fog has lifted at TLH, and mainly VFR
conditions will prevail at all sites for the remainder of the
period. There is a chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
this afternoon into the evening mainly at DHN and ECP, but the
impacts are expected to be brief.

&&

.Prev Discussion [409 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The eastern CONUS trough will become firmly established through
the period as several +PV anomalies dive southeast, exiting the
country over the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Tonight, the aforementioned cold front will slowly move east
across the Tri-State region, while shower intensity and coverage
decreases as the initial upper level anomaly moves away and low-
level flow temporarily becomes zonal. On Thursday, another
shortwave will move through the Southeast forcing the remnant cold
front through the local area by Thursday evening.

Temperatures tonight will feature seasonal low 50s across our
Alabama and northern Georgia counties behind the front, and above
average temps in the middle 60s ahead of it. With the region
remaining bisected through much of the day on Thursday, expect a
sharp gradient with afternoon highs in the lower to middle 80s
across the southeast Big Bend, and in the lower 70s across
southeast Alabama. Below average temperatures will overspread most
of the area by Thursday night with inland locations outside of the
southeast Big Bend falling in the lower to middle 40s. Friday is
expected to be dry with high temperatures in the lower to middle
70s, just a few degrees below average.


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

Big changes are in store during the long term period. While there
are still differences between the Euro and GFS with the eventual
incoming airmass for the weekend, some key points are starting to
emerge. Of the two models, the Euro is the most aggressive
showing a significant amplification of the pattern by Saturday
with a closed low moving off the Mid Atlantic States by the first
of the week. This opens the door for the first real cold air
intrusion to the Gulf. And with the surface ridge axis in the
model aligned near the region by Sunday morning, the Euro hints at
the potential for a frosty morning with lows in the mid to upper
30s. The GFS favors slightly milder temperatures, though has begun
to trend towards the colder Euro.

By Monday, as the surface high pressure area moves off the Atlantic
Coast, easterly flow returns, signaling a gradual warm up and a
steady increase in low level moisture.


.Marine...

Light southerly flow will veer northerly and increase to near
advisory levels (west of Apalachicola) tonight as a cold front
moves into the northeast Gulf. Winds will decrease through the day
on Thursday as the front weakens, though this will only be
temporary as strong high pressure should result in at least
cautionary level winds across the entire northeast Gulf through
the weekend.


.Fire Weather...

No hazardous fire weather conditions are expected over the next few
days. However, by this upcoming Saturday, some of the driest air of
the season will be on its way, which may give us our first Red Flag
Warning in quite some time for much of the Tri-State area. All
interests are urged to keep abreast of the latest conditions, should
future watches or warnings become necessary.


.Hydrology...

Rainfall amounts through Thursday will be rather light and pose no
impact to area rivers and streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   83  60  76  48  74 /  30  50  10   0   0
Panama City   80  63  75  52  72 /  50  50  10   0   0
Dothan        82  54  72  45  72 /  50  50   0   0   0
Albany        83  54  73  45  72 /  40  50   0   0   0
Valdosta      84  60  78  51  73 /  10  30  10  10   0
Cross City    84  65  82  58  77 /  10  10  30  20   0
Apalachicola  80  65  75  53  73 /  40  30  10   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/GOULD
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...GODSEY/HARRIGAN
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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