Area Forecast Discussion
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353
FXUS62 KTAE 311841
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
241 PM EDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Dewpoints have mixed down into the upper 50s as of 18Z across much
of the interior portions of our forecast area, except the far east.
In fact, the deeper low-level moisture seems to be situated at least
30mi north and east of our forecast area, and if that trend holds we
will probably not see many showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
We may amend the forecast shortly to remove any mention of showers
and thunderstorms for this afternoon and evening if that continues.
Otherwise, we expect increasing high clouds tonight, but dry weather
with lows around 70 degrees.


.Short Term [Friday Through Sunday]...

Our recent run of unusually dry weather will gradually come to an
end this weekend as a fairly high-amplitude 500 mb trough
develops over the Ohio Valley, and extends southward to the
central Gulf Coast. Additionally, a frontal system (remnants of
the cold front that moved through our region Monday night) will
meander across our forecast area. The GFS and ECMWF do not
forecast a uniform, robust return of deep layer moisture, as both
models indicate a substantially drier airmass will remain across
much of the FL Panhandle and Big Bend through into this weekend.
In GA and AL for Friday & Saturday, the combination of sufficient
deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing yields near- average
PoPs- in the 30-40% range, but only 20-30% in FL. On Sunday we
expect a more uniform PoP distribution for our whole region, in
the 40-60% range. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the mid
90s, "cooling" to lower 90s Sunday with more clouds. Lows will be
in the 70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Thursday]...

The aforementioned positive-tilt 500 mb trough will continue to
stretch from TN to the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, bringing moist
southwest flow aloft over our forecast area through Tuesday. This,
along with aforementioned remnant frontal system across our
region will contribute to above-climo rain chances (50-60% PoPs).
By Wednesday and Thursday, however, a deep layer ridge will build
across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast, reducing (somewhat) the
deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing. This will mark a
return to a more typical late summertime pattern, with near-climo
PoPs (30-40%) and thunderstorms driven primarily by the sea/land breeze
circulation and other mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures will be
near climatology, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in
the 70s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Friday] VFR conditions are expected to continue through
the TAF period, with increasing high clouds expected to be the most
significant change. Winds will be light and variable.

&&

.Marine...

Typically low summertime winds and seas will continue through this
weekend as the surface pressure gradient will be very weak. Winds
will generally be from the south at 10 KT or less with seas 2 ft or
less, except for slightly higher values near the coast each
afternoon and early evening due to daytime heating.

&&

.Fire Weather...

With increasing moisture and rain chances over the next several
days, no fire weather concerns are expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

With our area rivers below bank full stage and seasonable rainfall
totals in the forecast, no flooding is expected through the next
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  94  70  94  72 /   0  10  10  30  20
Panama City   73  89  75  89  75 /   0  10  10  30  20
Dothan        69  91  71  90  72 /  10  20  20  40  30
Albany        70  92  72  92  73 /  20  30  20  40  30
Valdosta      69  93  70  93  72 /  20  30  10  40  20
Cross City    69  93  69  93  72 /  20  20  10  30  20
Apalachicola  71  88  75  89  75 /  10  10  10  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...MOORE







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