Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 052025
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
325 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2013
...Record High Temperatures Today Across The Tri-State Area...
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Breaks in the cloud cover have let us warm up enough to already
reach or surpass the forecast area highs. We`ve already broken our
record high of 81 today at TLH with a high so far of 82, as well as
broken the record highs of 78 at DHN and 81 at VLD with highs so far
of 82 and 84 respectively.
The 18Z surface analysis shows the front is making slow and steady
eastward progress. Isentropic ascent ahead of the front is
continuing to feed fairly heavy cloud cover and scattered showers,
especially over our NWrn zones. With the tightened pressure gradient
associated with the front, winds are becoming fairly gusty today
with south winds occasionally gusting to around 20 MPH.
Tonight, as the upper level jet reinforcing the surface front lifts
NEward, the front will begin to lift NEward and will likely stay
just to our NW. Rain chances will continue to be highest in our NWrn
zones overnight. The other concern tonight is fog. With the high
moisture content ahead of the front still over us and with winds
calming down some overnight, areas of fog will affect much of the
area. Fog should start setting up late tonight and last into
tomorrow morning, similar to what we saw this morning. Overnight
lows will be very warm once again, with temperatures in the mid 60s
to around 60.
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
The long wave pattern will change little during this period with a
mean trough axis over the western and central U.S. and a ridge
extending from the northwest Caribbean northeast across South FL and
then off the Eastern U.S. Seaboard. One short wave will lift
northeastward from the base of the trough on Friday with another
moving out into the Central Plains Saturday night. A cold front will
reach our northwestern zones Friday night and then stall once it
reaches a AAF-TLH-VLD line on Saturday. This front will remain
stationary through Saturday night. Ahead of the front, unseasonably
warm temperatures will continue. Highs on Friday will be in the
lower 80s across most of the forecast area, except along the coast.
The record at TLH of 83 should be safe however. Cooler air will
arrive behind the front for Saturday with highs mainly in the 60s.
Ahead of the front, it will stay mild with highs in the mid to upper
70s from Tallahassee and Valdosta southeastward. PoPs will be in the
chance category with the highest rain chances coming post-frontal.
.LONG TERM [Sunday through Thursday]...
The front will lift rapidly northward as a warm front on Sunday with
temps once again surging to around 80 in the FL Big Bend with 70s
elsewhere. One more warm day will occur on Monday before a stronger
cold front crosses the entire forecast area from Monday night into
Tuesday. We could see some isolated thunderstorms out ahead of the
front Monday afternoon. Once again PoPs will be in the chance
category. Much cooler air will arrive behind this front with daytime
highs ranging from the mid 50s in Coffee County AL to around 70 in
Dixie County FL. Wednesday will be the coolest day with highs in the
50s northwest of a TLH-VLD line. At this point, it does now appear
that a freeze will occur, although lows will drop into the mid 30s
across our extreme northwestern zones by sunrise Wednesday. TLH
should get no lower than 40 degrees.
[Through 18Z Friday] VFR-MVFR ceilings today with south winds
occasionally gusting around 15-20 kt. Chances of showers through
the day at ECP, DHN, and ABY. Later tonight and early morning
tomorrow, we`re looking at another setup for IFR-LIFR fog at all
terminals across the area. There is some disagreement amongst the
models for which sites will go the lowest and how low they will go.
For now, have widespread IFR-LIFR conditions across the entire
region despite some focusing mostly on DHN/ECP and some focusing
mostly on VLD/ABY.
Light to moderate onshore flow will continue over the coastal waters
through Monday as high pressure remains anchored off the east coast.
A front will slide into the western waters on Saturday briefly
switching winds to offshore west of Apalachicola. This front will
then lift back to the north Saturday night. A stronger front will
cross the waters Monday night into Tuesday with winds reaching
cautionary levels behind it.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds
through the forecast period, therefore no red flag conditions are
expected in the near future. Dense fog may develop over the next
Total rainfall amounts over the next 5 days should range from
roughly an inch and a half northwest of Dothan to less than half
an inch over the southeastern half of the HSA. This will have
only minimal impacts on area rivers and streams.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 59 81 64 74 56 / 10 10 30 40 20
Panama City 66 78 65 69 58 / 10 20 40 40 20
Dothan 64 81 57 62 53 / 20 20 40 50 30
Albany 61 82 63 68 54 / 10 10 30 50 30
Valdosta 60 83 63 76 57 / 10 10 20 40 20
Cross City 59 81 60 79 56 / 10 10 10 20 10
Apalachicola 65 76 66 72 59 / 10 10 30 40 20
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather...Moore
Short Term/Long Term/Marine...Wool