Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 181402

902 AM EST Sun Jan 18 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Subjective 12Z surface analysis showed a dry cold front to our west
down central Tennessee, across northern Alabama, central
Mississippi, and southeastern Louisiana, out to the Gulf waters. An
outflow boundary out ahead of it over the coastal waters south of
Apalachicola has a small line of light rain associated with it that
can be seen on local radar imagery. With the exception of these very
light showers offshore, rain is very unlikely today with the weak
cold front passage. The main impact will be clearing skies behind
the front and some breezy northwest winds during the frontal passage
this afternoon; a few gusts could reach around 20 knots. Highs today
will be in the mid 60s to around 70.


[Through 12Z Monday] MVFR conditions at VLD should improve over the
next hour or so. After that, VFR conditions with northwest winds
will prevail. Some gusts around 20 knots are possible from the late
morning into the mid afternoon, especially at DHN, ECP, and ABY.


.Prev Discussion [452 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
Generally zonal upper flow will dominate through Tuesday as
surface high pressure slides from the Texas coast to the Florida
East Coast. This will keep the weather dry with high temperatures
running a few degrees above normal (mid to upper 60s). With high
pressure overhead and mostly clear skies, temperatures will be
cool tonight, with lows in the lower 30s for most area.
Temperatures will moderate for Monday night, with lows rising to
the upper 30s and lower 40s.

.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
A weak shortwave (and associated cold front) will move quickly
across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing isolated
showers to the forecast area. A cooler airmass will filter into
the region for the end of the work week as high pressure settles
into the Southern Plains. A positively tilted trough is forecast
to dig into the Deep South by early Friday, with deep moisture
riding up and over the cool low-level airmass. Guidance has come
into better agreement this morning, with Friday likely to be a
rainy and raw day. Drier air will move into the region on Saturday
as the system exits to the east.

After a brief period of advisory level winds over the offshore and
western waters this morning, winds and seas will diminish starting
this afternoon and remain low through the middle of the week.
Offshore flow will increase once again Wednesday night in the wake
of a cold front.

.Fire Weather...
For today, a relatively dry air mass is expected, but RH should
remain above critical thresholds. By Monday, RH will approach red
flag criteria in some areas - particularly our Florida zones - but
fuel and wind components are currently expected to be insufficient
for red flag conditions. Winds on Monday should actually be very
light with a surface high pressure over the region.

River levels continue to drop in the Ochlockonee, Withlacoochee,
and Suwannee Rivers and remain well below action stages elsewhere.
With little in the way of precipitation expected for the next
several days, no river flooding is expected.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  32  68  36  68 /  10   0   0   0  10
Panama City   65  39  65  47  66 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        64  36  66  41  65 /   0   0   0   0  10
Albany        64  33  67  38  66 /  10   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      66  35  67  37  68 /  10   0   0   0  10
Cross City    70  35  69  35  70 /  10   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  67  38  63  45  65 /  10   0   0   0  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Coastal
     waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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