Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 100617
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
217 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Upper ridging will build in from the west today helping to further
suppress convective coverage. The surface ridge axis will remain to
our north with a moist low level flow continuing from the southeast.
PoPs will be highest over the easternmost Big Bend zones (40%) where
a bit more moisture is present. Otherwise, PoPs will be in the
20-30% range for the remainder of the Tri-state region. The
reduction in storm coverage will be accompanied by an increase in
afternoon temperatures. Highs will be generally be in the lower 90s
away from the coast.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
A narrow, east-northeast to west southwest 500 mb ridge is forecast
by both the GFS and ECMWF to be over our forecast area through the
period. At the surface, our forecast area will near the western
periphery of the Bermuda ridge. A tropical wave will move from the
Bahamas to South FL on Friday. With little if any Q-G forcing, most
of the forcing for deep moist convection will come from mesoscale
boundaries, most of which (like the sea/land breeze fronts) will be
diurnally driven. Deep layer moisture, though not as rich as what
we`ve observed here the past several days, will be sufficient to
support isolated to scattered showers & thunderstorms each day. Our
PoP is in the 20 to 40 range, which is near climatology. Highs will
be in the lower to mid 90s (a little above average), with lows in
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The upper ridge will be weakened by a tropical wave that will pass
south of the area across the Gulf of Mexico. Once the wave axis
passes west of the region, we will see an increase in deep layer
moisture. A front will also stall just northwest of the forecast
area. These features will increase rain chances somewhat over the
weekend, but particularly into early next week.
[Through 06Z Thursday] With plenty of low-level moisture still in
place, low ceilings and visibilities should impact all TAF sites in
the pre-dawn hours. Then, gradual improvement to VFR shortly after
daybreak with only a low end chance or slight chance of
showers/TSTMS at the terminals this afternoon.
Winds will be generally light from the east or south (during the
afternoons near the coast) as the coastal waters become situated
near the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge. Some increase in
winds & seas is possible Saturday as a tropical wave moves into the
Southeast Gulf of Mexico.
No fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming weekend.
With faster steering winds and a less deep layer moisture than in
recent days, the threat of flash flooding appears low. With recent
rains, some heavy, many of the local rivers have risen above their
unusually low stages. However, we do not expect them to reach action
stage due to the isolated to scattered nature of the rain expected
over the next few days.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 92 72 94 72 94 / 30 10 30 10 30
Panama City 89 76 90 76 91 / 30 10 30 10 30
Dothan 92 71 93 72 94 / 20 20 20 10 30
Albany 92 72 94 73 95 / 20 10 20 10 30
Valdosta 92 71 93 72 94 / 30 20 30 10 30
Cross City 92 71 93 71 92 / 40 20 30 20 40
Apalachicola 89 77 88 76 90 / 30 10 30 10 30