Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 110743
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
343 AM EDT Tue Jun 11 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
As an upper level trough continues to move northeast, deep layer
ridging will continue to build over the Southern Plains. This set up
puts our CWA in a dry northwest flow regime. The northwest flow will
suppress any afternoon sea breeze convection through the near term
period. Therefore expect mostly clear skies with above average
temperatures for today.
The threat for deadly rip currents that have plagued the Florida
coastline over the past several days will significantly subside
today. However, being that today is the transition day to calmer
seas and surf, a few strong rips will still be possible.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...
After a fairly wet start to the month of June, which included a
persistent trough and impacts from Tropical Storm Andrea, a
significant pattern change to generally hot and dry conditions will
be the rule for the Mid-week period. This will occur as SFC and
upper level ridging gain a stronger foothold over the SE U.S., and
the deep layer drier air and NW Flow above the surface should
significantly limit the afternoon and evening Sea Breeze induced
convection. PoPs on Wednesday are expected to be limited to 20% at
best, mainly across the southeastern 1/3 of the CWA, while on
Thursday, the highest PoPs will still only be 20 to 30% from NE to
SW (with the 30% area basically limited to the SE FL Big Bend. With
the drier air, the increased daytime insolation will produce some of
the hottest temperatures of the year thus far, with afternoon highs
ranging from the lower to middle 90s near the coast, to the upper
90s to around the 100 degree mark across much of the interior.
Fortunately, these very high temperatures should help afternoon
dewpoints mix out just enough to keep Heat Index readings between
100 and 106 degrees, which is below our Advisory level criteria.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Sunday]...
On the large scale, the GFS and ECMWF maintain a central CONUS
ridge/east coast trough through the period. A "backdoor" cold front
is scheduled to pass through our forecast area on Friday, followed
by a return to dry, sinking northwest flow aloft. The WPC/GFS/ECMWF
consensus PoP is near climo Thursday and Friday (about 40%), then
below climo thereafter (20% or less). Both models have backed off on
upstream MCS development.
Above climo high temperatures (mid-upper 90s) will continue Thursday
and Friday, with Thursday being the warmest. The GFS maintains a
warm, dry airmass across our region after Friday`s frontal passage,
while the ECMWF forecasts slight cooling. A blend of these two
results in near climo temperatures.
[Through 06Z Wednesday] The primary concern for this TAF period will
be the low CIGS expected in the early morning hours. MVFR conditions
are expected at VLD and ABY. IFR conditions are expected at TLH and
ECP. Multiple high resolution models gave me higher confidence to
take DHN to LIFR. VFR conditions will prevail onward from 14Z at all
terminals with no afternoon showers or thunderstorms expected.
Winds and seas are expected to remain at typically low summertime
levels through mid week, with a weak ridge of high pressure
centering just to the south of the Coastal Waters. These winds will
be generally out of the southwest to west, and will begin to
increase on Thursday night and Friday ahead of an approaching Cold
Front from the north. However, no headlines are expected at this
Although relative humidity will drop to relatively low values for
the warm season, it is not low enough to cause fire weather concerns.
After the recent heavy rainfall across the area, two river points
over our Hydrological Area of Responsibility did manage to climb
into Action Stage. These were the Shoal River at Mossy Head FL, and
the Little River at Hahira GA. As of early this morning however,
only Hahira remains above action stage, and with a generally Hot and
Dry week ahead, all area rivers and streams should be in a receding
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 95 71 97 72 97 / 10 10 20 10 20
Panama City 87 76 91 77 91 / 10 10 10 10 20
Dothan 96 73 99 74 99 / 10 10 10 10 20
Albany 96 73 99 74 98 / 10 10 10 10 20
Valdosta 97 71 100 72 100 / 10 10 20 20 30
Cross City 94 72 96 71 95 / 20 10 20 20 30
Apalachicola 86 75 90 75 90 / 10 10 10 10 20