Area Forecast Discussion
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190
FXUS62 KTAE 251903
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT Mon Aug 25 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Cooler temperatures are expected tonight, with lows in the middle
60s across Alabama and Georgia, and the low 70s elsewhere. Northeast
winds will hold around 5 mph overnight making it feel quite
pleasant. No rain is expected over land areas.


.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

The airmass over our forecast area, especially in the mid
troposphere, will be warm and very dry- an environment that`s not
favorable for deep moist convection. We can`t completely rule out
a few showers in some areas, especially east and southeast of
Tallahassee, where isolated, relatively shallow showers (associated with
mesoscale perturbations in the easterly flow) are possible. Highs
will be in the lower to mid 90s, lows in the upper 60s to lower
70s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

After a dry day on Thursday, The GFS and ECMWF forecast the return
of a moisture-rich boundary layer on Friday and Saturday as the deep
layer flow shifts from east to south. However, neither model shows
much in the way of Q-G forcing with this return in moisture, and the
mid layer tropospheric moisture isn`t that impressive. This would
suggest near climo PoPs (peaking around 40% at each site`s
locally-favored diurnal peak). The GFS and ECMWF diverge a bit Sunday
and Monday, as the GFS forecasts plentiful deep layer moisture
(and even some weak Q-G forcing) over our region as a series of
short wave troughs translate eastward over the Gulf Coast states.
The ECMWF rebuilds a 500 mb high (and dry, sinking air aloft) over
our forecast area, which would result in below-climo PoPs and
above-climo high temperatures. The GFS hasn`t been very consistent
from run to run. Additionally, we`re heading into the
climatological transition to lower PoPs. Our forecast is a blend
of the two solutions, with a little more weight given to the drier
ECMWF solution.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
TAF. Gusty winds between 15 to 20 mph will be possible the
remainder of the day and tomorrow afternoon as well.

&&

.Marine...

The latest NWP guidance is consistent in forecasting marginal
advisory conditions across much of our marine area overnight, with
a gradual slackening off of winds and seas on Tuesday.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although drier than recent days, relative humidity levels over the
next several days will not fall to critical thresholds. Thus, Red
Flag conditions are not expected.

&&

.Hydrology...

With little to no rain expected over the next few days, river stages
and flows should continue to run below normal.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  93  71  94  70 /  10  10  20  20  10
Panama City   73  92  75  92  75 /  10  10  20  20  10
Dothan        66  92  69  93  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        66  92  68  93  68 /   0  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      69  92  66  93  67 /  10  20  10  20  10
Cross City    71  92  69  93  69 /  20  30  10  20  10
Apalachicola  74  91  76  90  76 /  10  10  20  20  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EDT tonight for Coastal
     Franklin.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT Tuesday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY/GOULD







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