Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 280811
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
311 AM EST Fri Feb 28 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
The morning will be clear and cold on the last day of meteorological
winter (defined as December, January, and February) with a light
freeze across most non-coastal portions of our forecast area. We
maintained patchy frost wording, although RH hasn`t been too high
through the early part of the overnight hours - suggesting that any
frost would be fairly isolated. Sunny skies should help temperatures
recover fairly quickly in the morning, with highs in the low to mid
60s. Models are very consistent in portraying moisture advection in
the 700-500mb layer in the afternoon and evening. The area of higher
RH currently resides upstream near the LA-AR border where a BKN-OVC
mid-level cloud deck has been observed tonight. Therefore, we could
see an increase in mid-level clouds this afternoon and into this
evening. No rain is expected.
.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
At upper levels, the broad trough dipping into the Southeast will be
replaced by a ridge during this period. A short wave crossing the
Southern Plains this morning will be shearing out as it crosses the
forecast area tonight. It will be too dry to be concerned about any
rain, but the some additional cloud cover will keep temps from
dropping as low as this morning. Tonight will see most inland areas
bottom out in the upper 30s. A few of the normally colder spots in
the Apalachicola National Forest could see mid 30s and a chance for
patchy frost. The rising heights will then result in a dramatic
warming trend. Temps will moderate nicely on Saturday with highs
ranging from the upper 60s north to the lower 70s south. Temps will
be well above normal on Sunday with highs generally in the mid to
upper 70s. A few spots such as Valdosta will reach 80 degrees on
Sunday. Coastal areas will be cooled by a sea breeze and peak in the
.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
Deep layer ridging on Sunday moves east making way for the next
trough and associated cold front Monday and Monday night. This front
is forecast to stall well south of our region on Tuesday as the flow
becomes zonal. This will give us at least one dry day before a more
vigorous shortwave approaches late Wednesday into Thursday. Both the
12z GFS and 00z EURO show cyclogenesis in the Gulf mid next week
but differ on development of the surface low and it`s track. The
GFS tracks a weaker low from the central Gulf late Wednesday eastward
toward SW Florida by late Thursday. The EURO shows a stronger
system tracking along the Gulf coast Wednesday night and inland
over the Florida Panhandle on Thursday. Both solutions bring rain
chances back in the forecast but the EURO solution would be more
problematic with a possible severe weather threat for at least a
portion of our CWA. We are still a week away and a lot can change
between now and then. Will only show PoPs in the chance range for
the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. Temps will be above
seasonal levels Sunday and Monday with near or below normal temps
for the remainder of the period.
[Through 06Z Saturday] VFR through the period. Clear skies and calm
winds will give way to light easterly winds today. Some high (VFR)
CIGS are expected to develop after 18-21z, likely around 15,000 ft.
High pressure will ridge into the Northeast Gulf of Mexico through
the weekend keeping winds and seas low. The next cold front is
forecast to cross the waters on Monday with offshore winds possibly
reaching cautionary levels south of the Panhandle Monday night.
A dry air mass will linger across the area today, although the
air mass will begin to modify somewhat. Therefore, minimum
relative humidities will be low but not quite as low as what was
observed yesterday. This will place southeast Alabama right on the
margins of red flag criteria this afternoon (at least 4hr with RH
<25%). Given that the RFW was already in effect, this will be
maintained for now. Red flag criteria will not be met in Florida
or Georgia. RH levels slowly recover through the weekend.
One one river forecast point remains in flood. The Apalachicola
River at Blountstown has crested and is forecast to fall below flood
stage before sunset today. The Choctawhatchee River at Bruce and the
Aucilla River at Lamont both crested just below flood stage and are
no longer expected to flood.
The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at the following location.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 64 36 72 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
Panama City 62 45 69 50 73 / 0 0 0 0 0
Dothan 61 40 70 46 76 / 0 10 0 0 0
Albany 62 39 69 43 76 / 0 0 0 0 0
Valdosta 64 39 73 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 67 39 73 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
Apalachicola 61 43 67 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
AL...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
evening for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.