Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 141849
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
249 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The cold front is bisecting the area from west to east. The main
squall line has raced out ahead of the front and has crossed just
out of our area. Light showers will continue behind the main squall
line for a few hours. Lows tonight will be in the low to mid 50s for
much of the area, upper 50s to around 60 in the eastern FL Big Bend.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A large upper level low pressure system will cover the eastern
third of the country on Wednesday. It will only gradually be
absorbed back into the mean longwave trough through Thursday. At
the surface, high pressure will nose into the Tri-State region on
Wednesday, with the surface ridge overspreading the entire
Southeast by Thursday night. No rain and seasonable temperatures
are expected. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s each
afternoon, with overnight lows around 50 degrees away from the
coast.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

Broad troughing, or nearly zonal flow aloft, will prevail locally
through the extended range. At the surface, high pressure will
remain intact, with no rain in the forecast. Highs will hold
steady in the low 80s, which is near average for this time of
year. Lows, will be slightly below normal, in the lower to middle
50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

Vicinity showers will linger for a few hours, with conditions
bouncing between VFR and MVFR-IFR. By 00Z however, VFR conditions
will return and prevail through the remainder of the period. Gusty
winds are expected today both with the storms and behind them,
winds will weaken after sunset.

&&

.Marine...

Advisory level winds will subside through cautionary levels
tonight, before headline conditions are no longer met late
tonight. Winds will remain near headline levels through Thursday
when the calm center of high pressure moves closer to our Gulf
waters. Thereafter, low winds and seas should prevail into next
week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Relative humidity values will dip through the week behind a cold
front passage. The forecast at this time is that they will not dip
into the lower 30s or upper 20s until Friday by which time the post
frontal winds will have already subsided. No red flag conditions are
forecast this week.

&&

.Hydrology...

Several area rivers have shown sharp rises in response to the rain
that fell over the past 24-36 hours. However, prior to this rain
event river levels were so low that it is unlikely any of our
forecast points will reach minor flood stage. In fact, only a few
points along the Shoal and Choctawhatchee rivers are forecast to
remain in, or reach action stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   55  80  50  79  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   62  77  56  77  57 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        52  77  50  77  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        53  77  50  77  50 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      56  79  51  77  50 /  50   0  10   0   0
Cross City    63  80  52  79  52 /  70  10   0   0   0
Apalachicola  61  77  56  76  57 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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