Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 281910
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
210 PM EST Thu Nov 28 2013
...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT THRU EARLY FRIDAY
FOR SE AL/SW AND S/CNTRL GA AND PARTS OF NORTH FLORIDA...
.Near Term [Tonight]...
Clear skies, dry conditions, and light winds will once again allow
temperatures to fall to the freezing point for most locations away
from the coast. The northeasterly flow this afternoon will raise
moisture levels across the southeast Big Bend (especially Dixie
county) just enough to prevent a freeze, or only allow patchy freeze
conditions for an hour or less right at sunrise. Thus, the current
freeze warning will remain valid, including most inland Florida
counties and all of our Alabama and Georgia counties. Within a few
hours of dawn, patchy frost will also be possible within the freeze
.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Sunday]...
The large scale regional pattern commences Fri with a trough over
the NE and nearly zonal flow over SE region. at surface, 1036mb high
centered over OH Valley building Swd down east coast with tightening
gradients into SE region. Locally sounding data shows very dry
airmass with PWATS AOB 0.3 inches with ENE flow below and WNW flow
During the rest of the period. Several troughs/shortwaves ride Ewd
across Nrn stream but Srn stream remains largely zonal. At surface,
high lifts Newd reaching New England on Sat then EWD into Atlc on
Sun but assocd ridging continues Swwd back towards SE region.
Local low level flow veers some on weekend with PWATS increasing
to about 0.75. As a result local isolated very light Atlc showers
may make it far enough Wwd to impact our Ern counties Sat into Sun
but chance of measurable rain too small to mention. However,
expect an increase in lower clouds and possibly patchy late night
and early morning fog especially Ern counties at this time. All
this translates to a continued dry pattern but a moderating trend
in temps to AOA climo. Will go Fri with highs from near 60 north
to mid-upper 60s SE Big Bend rising on Sat to low 60s to low 70s
and on Sun to mid 60s to low 70s. Lows Fri night from low 30s
north to low 40s SE Big Bend moderating on Sat night to near 40
north to near 50 SE Big Bend.
.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Thursday]...
The upper pattern begins to changes a shortwave developing over Srn
Plains over the weekend moves east and deepens over SE/Gulf region
Sun night into Mon eve before exiting Ern seaboard late Mon night.
Some model disagreement with GFS deeper and slightly faster than
ECMWF with system. At surface, a very weak wave of low pressure
moves across Nrn most Gulf Sun night into Mon developing coastal
trough off FL E coast on Tues. However, overall 12z guidance is
trending weaker with this system so at best scattered rain. Strong
ridging builds with an infusion of colder and drier air
overspreads area late Mon night and especially Tues into Wed with
again GFS a little quicker in its development. Another and
stronger shortwave approaches and begins to break down ridge late
Wed and approaching the Wrn CWA later on Thurs.
Will go with 20 pops Sun night, 30% on Mon and 20% Mon night and
Tues...20-30% on Thurs. Otherwise no Pops. Lows from low 40s north
to near 50 Sun and Mon nights, 40 to 45 Tues night, 45 to 50 Wed
night and low 50s to upper 50s Thurs night. Highs at or above normal
ranging from 65 to low 70 Mon and Tues, 67 to 72 on Wed and 68 to 75
VFR conditions under clear skies and light northeasterly winds will
prevail for the duration of the TAF.
NE winds...especially well offshore...will remain at or just below
cautionary levels into early Sat before we finally see a decided
crop off for the remainder of the holiday weekend and into the
upcoming work week.
Although very dry this afternoon, the cool temperatures will keep
relative humidity values above critical thresholds. Northeasterly
flow will gradually moisten things up over the next couple of days
and offset the warming temperatures. Thus hazardous fire weather
conditions are not expected in the foreseeable future.
No rainfall is forecast over the weekend. While rain chances do
return early next week, significant rainfall is not anticipated.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 31 64 38 66 45 / 0 0 0 10 10
Panama City 36 62 44 65 50 / 0 0 0 10 10
Dothan 29 60 35 62 42 / 0 0 0 10 10
Albany 28 61 34 62 41 / 0 0 0 10 10
Valdosta 31 63 39 63 46 / 0 0 0 10 10
Cross City 37 68 43 72 49 / 0 0 0 10 10
Apalachicola 37 63 46 66 52 / 0 0 0 10 10
FL...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight EST /11 PM CST/ tonight to 8 AM
EST /7 AM CST/ Friday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-
Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Jefferson-Inland Walton-Jackson-
GA...FREEZE WARNING from Midnight tonight to 8 AM EST Friday for
AL...FREEZE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Friday for
Near Term/Aviation/Fire Weather/Hydrology...Harrigan
Short Term/Long Term/Marine...Block