Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 201419
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1019 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2014
.Near Term [Through Today]...
Forecast remains on track this morning. As high pressure begins
to build over the southeast, drier, hotter conditions are on tap
for today. The sea-breeze showers and thunderstorms will have a
later start and lower coverage than yesterday, staying mostly in
north Florida. Since there won`t be as heavy cloud cover with high
pressure building and with delayed storm onset, temperatures will
clime to the mid to upper 90s today, low 90s along the coastline.
[Through 12Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. Thunderstorm activity should be more limited today,
with KTLH having the best chance of any impacts, possibly ECP as
well. MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys possible once again tomorrow morning
Rainfall totals ranged from 1 to 3 inches yesterday. The next few
days will be drier with no significant rain expected. With all area
rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.
.Prev Discussion [337 AM EDT]...
.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Deep layer ridging will build and become centered over the central
Gulf coast states Thursday through Friday. This will bring hot
temperatures and drier than normal conditions to the region. The
best chance for rain (30%) will be across the Florida zones due to
the afternoon sea-breeze. Highs will be in the upper 90s to around
100 degrees both days. Heat index values are forecast in the 105-110
degree range over the Florida zones and around 105 degrees elsewhere
on Thursday. Heat index values in the 105-110 range could expand to
cover most of the Tri-state region on Friday. A Heat Advisory may be
needed for at least a portion of our FA for both days. Lows will
only be in the mid 70s.
.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
Conditions are expected to stay hot and relatively dry through early
next week as a strong ridging of high pressure builds inland and
stays in place until it begins to weaken late this weekend. A long
stretch of hot days is on tap with highs expected to reach the upper
90s Thursday through Sunday, decreasing only slightly to the mid 90s
Monday and Tuesday when rain chances increase again after the ridge
begins to weaken.
Light to occasionally moderate west winds will continue into the
upcoming weekend. Seas are generally expected to remain around 2
feet or less through the period.
High pressure will build over the region over the next few days,
pushing afternoon temperatures higher and minimum relative
humidities lower. However, despite RH values dropping into the lower
to mid 30s by Thursday, no Red Flag Conditions are anticipated.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 96 75 98 75 100 / 30 10 30 20 30
Panama City 93 79 97 78 97 / 50 10 20 20 20
Dothan 96 75 99 76 99 / 30 20 20 10 20
Albany 97 75 100 76 100 / 20 10 20 10 20
Valdosta 96 74 100 74 100 / 20 10 20 20 30
Cross City 94 74 98 74 97 / 30 10 30 20 30
Apalachicola 93 77 94 77 95 / 40 10 20 20 20