Area Forecast Discussion
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280
FXUS62 KTAE 271450
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
950 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A drier airmass will be advecting into the area today with a large
surface ridge centered over the plains bringing northerly surface
flow into the region. Meanwhile, some upper level moisture will
continue streaming across the area with some high clouds. Afternoon
high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50s across the
northwest and near 60 across the southeast big bend.

&&

.Prev Discussion [410 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

Strong surface high pressure centered over the Midwest tonight
will slide east to the Ohio Valley and into New England over the
weekend. As it does, a wedge of high pressure will build down the
lee of the Appalachians into our region with increasing low level
northeasterly flow. This will also bring increasing cloudiness
resulting in lower afternoon temps especially northern zones
Saturday. Also we could see scattered showers mainly southeast
zones on Saturday as isentropic lift sets up with winds above the
boundary layer veering to the southeast. As the surface high
weakens somewhat on Sunday along with flow becoming nearly zonal
in the mid/upper levels, look for temps to warm to near seasonal
levels.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The warming trend will continue at least through mid-week as low
level flow becomes onshore as the surface high moves off the
mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S. coast. The increasing low level
moisture and above seasonal temps will keep low end PoPs in the
forecast Monday and Tuesday. Then an amplifying upper trough over
the nation`s midsection with a leading developing cold front will
bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms to the region
Wednesday and Thursday.


.Aviation...

[Through 12z Saturday] Low clouds with MVFR ceilings will gradually
erode this morning, and VFR conditions are expected through the
remainder of the period with northerly winds around 10 knots or
less.


.Marine...

Strong high pressure moving eastward through the midwestern states
will keep the gradient tight and winds elevated through much of
the weekend. Expect to see conditions reach advisory levels
tonight and remain at these levels through early Sunday.
Conditions should improve by Sunday afternoon continuing into
early next week as the area of high pressure weakens.


.Fire Weather...

Although the airmass will be drier today than in recent days,
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels, and hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over
the next several days.


.Hydrology...

Most of the area saw 1-2 inches of rain Wednesday which has led
to a rise on area rivers. Several rivers will reach action or bank
full stage. The Kinchafoonee Creek at Dawson and the
Withloacoochee River at Valdosta will reach minor flood stage on
Saturday.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  43  62  51  69 /   0   0  20  20  20
Panama City   57  47  58  50  65 /   0   0  20  20  20
Dothan        56  39  55  42  60 /   0   0  10  20  20
Albany        57  38  52  44  59 /   0   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      58  42  57  48  68 /   0   0  20  20  20
Cross City    62  45  61  53  74 /   0   0  40  20  20
Apalachicola  58  47  62  53  67 /   0   0  20  20  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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