Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 130609
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
209 AM EDT Mon May 13 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...
The upper level pattern is currently progressive with a trough
moving eastward and a ridge building in behind it. A very dry
airmass will continue advecting into the area today with northerly
flow. All in all, it should be a very pleasant day with mostly
sunny skies and highs topping out mainly in the upper 70s to lower
.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...
As the deep upper trough begins to pull out to the northeast
tonight, unseasonably cool high pressure will build into the deep
south. The center of the surface ridge is forecast to be directly
over the forecast area by Tuesday morning. With minimal cloud
cover expected and a dry airmass in place (dewpoints around 40),
conditions will be ideal for radiational cooling, allowing low
temperatures to reach the mid to upper 40s in most locations.
These values will approach record lows at KTLH (47 degrees in
1960) and KAAF (55 degrees in 1997).
By Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday, ridging aloft
and the strong May sun angle will allow to airmass to quickly
modify. Highs are expected to reach the lower 80s Tuesday
afternoon and the mid to upper 80s Wednesday afternoon. No rain is
expected through Wednesday.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]...
Although models are showing upper level ridging at 300 mb that
stays in place through the period, they also show a mid-level
short wave impulse at 500 mb that will propagate through the weak
ridging. This may cause some convection by the weekend,
particularly during daytime hours with solar heating to aid it,
but the models are not showing high rain chances overall, with
PoPs highest on Saturday and Sunday during the day with values
<30%. Temperatures will be about normal for this time of year.
[Through 06z Tuesday] VFR conditions are expected through the
period. The only possible impact is expected to be gusty northerly
winds between 15 and 20 knots from late morning until sunset.
High pressure building into the lower Mississippi Valley today
will keep the gradient tight over the coastal waters. This will
result in Small Craft Advisory conditions over the offshore legs
and Exercise Caution conditions over the nearshore legs. Winds and
seas will gradually diminish tonight into Tuesday as the high
moves closer to the region. Light winds and minimal seas are then
expected through the remainder of the week.
Red flag conditions appear likely this afternoon across portions
of northwest Florida due to a combination of long durations of low
RH and high ERC. The wind component will also be close to red flag
criteria. While very dry air will also be present across southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia, red flag conditions are not
expected there due to insufficient KBDI and fuel moisture
requirements respectively. It will also be dry again on Tuesday
with long durations of low RH expected and high ERCs expected to
continue, so a watch will be issued for the same counties that
have a warning today.
No hydrologic problems are anticipated this week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 80 45 82 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 79 57 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 78 50 84 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 78 47 83 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 80 45 82 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 81 44 82 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 79 54 77 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 10
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Coastal Bay-Inland Bay.
RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM EDT this evening for
Coastal Wakulla-Inland Wakulla-Leon.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for Waters
from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.