Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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494
FXUS62 KTAE 221452
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1052 AM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE RADAR
MOSAIC SHOWS AN EXPANDING AREA OF RAIN APPROACHING THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL EXPECT A FEW STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE
WEATHER. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR CURRENTLY APPEAR TO BE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA LIMITING DESTABILIZATION...BUT SOME
BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH 40-50
KNOTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 12Z MONDAY] SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE. CEILINGS WILL BE MAINLY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL
IMPROVEMENTS TO VFR AND RESTRICTIONS TO IFR THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [403 AM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...
BY 00Z MONDAY, THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL BE APPROACHING
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. CONVECTION FROM
SUNDAY SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AND BE
SPREADING EASTWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE.
WHILE THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS WAVE WILL BE DECREASING WITH TIME,
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD ONLY SERVE TO ENHANCE
COVERAGE ACROSS THE GEORGIA COUNTIES WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE.

BY MONDAY AFTERNOON, THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS THE MID LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND FORCING LEFT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IN FACT, SOME OF THESE
STORMS THROUGH MIDDAY COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLORIDA
BIG BEND.

ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. ASIDE FROM SOME EARLY MORNING CLOUDINESS,
SKIES SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY BY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES
CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S.


.LONG TERM [TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY]...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE REGION ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC SHIFTING WELL EAST OF THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER, THE
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION WILL CHANGE IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MOVING INTO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA ON FRIDAY LIKELY CLEARING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY
AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH FURTHER AMPLIFIES. COOL HIGH PRESSURE
FROM CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. WHILE THERE SHOULD BE GOOD CHANCES OF RAIN
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BIG STORY BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE MUCH COOLER
WEATHER THAN WHAT WE`VE EXPERIENCED FOR MUCH OF MARCH. GENERALLY,
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY COULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH. IN FACT, THE 22/00Z GFS
SUGGESTS THAT TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY MORNING COULD BE EVEN COLDER
THAN THIS, WITH THE EXTENDED MOS FOR SUNDAY MORNING SUGGESTING A
LIGHT FREEZE. THE EURO ISN`T QUITE THIS COLD, BUT NONETHELESS
SUGGESTS MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. FOR NOW,
WILL OBVIOUSLY TREND SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY FOR
SATURDAY/SUNDAY, BUT NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY THE 22/00Z
GFS.


.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN LOW WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREA
DESPITE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...KEEPING WINDS AND SEAS LOW.


.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP AFTERNOON RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.


.HYDROLOGY...
RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODEST RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH A FEW FORECAST
POINTS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REACHING
ACTION STAGE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   83  62  78  55  78 /  70  60  50  10  10
PANAMA CITY   76  62  77  54  74 /  70  50  30  10  10
DOTHAN        74  57  71  50  75 /  90  70  40  10  10
ALBANY        72  56  65  50  72 /  90  90  50  20  10
VALDOSTA      81  61  73  52  75 /  90  90  70  20  10
CROSS CITY    84  63  78  55  80 /  30  70  60  20  10
APALACHICOLA  77  63  76  57  74 /  50  40  40  10  10

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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