Area Forecast Discussion
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476
FXUS62 KTAE 141455
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
955 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

This morning`s upper air sounding revealed a strong low-level
inversion around 950mb. There`s very little chance of mixing
through this cap today. Adiabatic heating alone would suggest the
Tallahassee area could reach the middle to upper 50s this
afternoon, though continued CAA advection will most likely limit
some of this. The only other wrinkle is just how much diabatic
heating we`ll receive under clear skies. Taking into account these
three considerations, have strayed little from the previous
forecast and will show an northwest to southeast gradient this
afternoon. Expect highs around 50 in southeast Alabama, 55 from
Panama City through Valdosta, and as high as 62 near Cross City.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions under clear skies are expected throughout the TAF.
Northerly winds could be a bit gusty this morning (15 to 20 kts),
but should settle in to a steady 10 to 15 knots for much of the
afternoon.

&&

.Marine...

Occasional cautionary winds are expected through tonight. Winds
look relatively light for most of this weekend with another
increase expected Sunday night and Monday as the next front
approaches.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Minor tweaks to the temperature and dewpoint this morning would
indicate that the Red Flag conditions across portions of north
Florida and southeast Alabama will be marginal today. However, if
the observed conditions stray from the forecast, it will likely be
in a direction that favors Red Flag conditions. Thus, will keep
the current warning in place for today.

&&

.Prev Discussion [606 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
For tonight, a cold night is shaping up as a very cold and dry
airmass continues to advect into the area. It continues to look
like much of the northern and western portions of the forecast
area will see a light freeze tonight, so the freeze watch was
upgraded to a warning with a slight expansion eastward.

For Saturday, as surface high pressure begins to shift to the east
of the area, moisture will start to recover as the surface flow
veers to easterly. Daytime highs will also average between 5 and
10 degrees warmer than today but will still end up below normal.

For Sunday, we will just start to feel the affects of the next
system as a strong trough digs west of the area, although most of
the rain should hold off until the overnight hours into Monday.
Temperatures and dewpoints will continue to rebound as the flow
continues to veer the southeast.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The strong upper level trough and associated cold front will push
through the area during the Sunday night/Monday time period.
Rainfall looks likely across the entire area. Thunderstorms are
also possible, and both the 00z GFS and Euro are forecasting
decent shear values across the area. Instability is more
questionable, although the Euro actually has more instability than
the GFS. If enough instability can develop ahead of the system,
then a strong to severe storm would be possible, but confidence on
that occurring is currently low, especially with such a cold and
dry airmass to displace ahead of it first. We will continue to
monitor for that possibility.

Behind the system, another very cold and dry airmass will move in
with a widespread freeze likely on Tuesday night and again on
Wednesday night. In fact, some areas could flirt with local hard
freeze conditions (below 26 for at least 2 hours) on Tuesday
night. Highs will likely range from the upper 40s across the
north to the mid 50s across the southeast big bend both days.
These temperatures are a solid 20 degrees or more below average
for this time of year. A gradual moderation is expected for the
end of the week.


.Hydrology...
The western half of the forecast area could see around an inch of
rain with the next system in the Sunday night/Monday time frame
with locally higher amounts possible. This will be the first
widespread rain in quite some time, so with the recent dry
conditions and progressive nature of the system, flooding is not
expected to be a problem.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   55  33  64  44  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   55  37  61  49  70 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        50  29  59  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        52  30  60  40  70 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      55  34  62  45  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    61  35  67  49  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  57  38  62  49  70 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-Washington.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift-Turner-
     Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...HARRIGAN/DVD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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