Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 152048
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
348 PM EST Mon Dec 15 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
An upper low will lift northeast into the southern Great Lakes
overnight dragging a trailing cold front into the forecast area
by morning. Any significant lift and deep moisture is forecast to
remain well north of the area, with just some scattered light
showers expected at the southern end of the system. Brief period
of return flow just ahead of the front will keep temperatures
milder across the western half of the area. To the east towards
the Suwannee River Valley, cooler overnight lows are expected with
temperatures dropping into the upper 30s as winds go calm.
.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
A mid-upper level low, currently evident on water vapor satellite
loops centered over northern Missouri, should slowly lift into
Lower Michigan by tomorrow morning. With most of the mid-upper
level height falls focused well north of our area, the cold front
approaching from the west should be weakening with time. In fact,
the 500mb heights are forecast to rise over the next 24 hours over
our forecast area. Therefore, we expect fairly weak forcing along
the cold front, with a broken line of showers. Hi-res guidance
suggests that most locales could see rain, but the rain totals
will be rather light and the duration very short (1-hr or less).
Temperatures ahead of the cold front should be above normal.
Dry weather with clearing skies is expected for the remainder of
the short term period as the shallow front passes by and a ridge
of surface high pressure builds in underneath zonal flow aloft.
Temperatures will cool closer to seasonal normals.
.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
Although zonal flow over the southern US will be the predominant
pattern through much of the extended forecast period, global
models do consistently show a deamplifying wave ejecting from
Texas to the Southeast on Friday to Saturday. In general, they are
depicting a surface low to develop somewhere in the vicinity of
the Gulf coast, although the details have been quite variable
among different model runs. For now we are forecasting the best
rain chances on Friday Night and Saturday, and some thunderstorms
will be possible too. Temperatures will be steady near seasonal
normals for much of the period.
[Through 18Z Tuesday] VFR conditions and light winds will continue
into the evening. Clouds will increase and gradually lower
overnight from west to east. May see VFR conditions by sunrise
with scattered light showers. Have left fog out of the KVLD TAF at
the moment. However, some light fog is possible around sunrise.
Southwesterly winds will increase tonight as the cold front
approaches. 15-20 knot winds appear likely enough west of
Apalachicola to warrant a SCEC headline for those legs, mainly for
the 06-18Z period. The next significant increase in winds should
be later Friday or Saturday as the next low pressure system
approaches the area.
Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days, with rain possible tomorrow and early
this weekend. Thus, hazardous fire weather conditions are not
No flooding issues are expected over the next several days. A weak
system may bring a few light showers on Tuesday. A better chance
of rain may arrive around Friday night or Saturday.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 49 76 42 65 39 / 0 30 0 0 0
Panama City 59 71 46 61 47 / 20 40 0 0 0
Dothan 54 69 40 62 39 / 30 40 0 0 0
Albany 47 71 38 63 36 / 20 40 0 0 0
Valdosta 41 73 41 64 38 / 0 30 0 0 0
Cross City 40 74 43 68 38 / 0 10 10 0 0
Apalachicola 57 72 46 62 45 / 0 30 0 0 0