Area Forecast Discussion
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891
FXUS62 KTAE 100148
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
948 PM EDT Tue Sep 9 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Much less convective coverage occurred today as drier air slipped
over the northwestern half of the Tri-State region and the
persistent mid-level wave faded away. Just a few light showers
remain along outflow from today`s storms generated along a
surface trough across north-central Florida, and a weak frontal
boundary across south-central and southeast Georgia. There will
remain the possibility for showers and an isolated thunderstorm
offshore tonight in a weakly convergent easterly flow regime.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Thursday]...

With plenty of low-level moisture still in place, expect another
round of low ceilings and visibilities tonight. All terminals are
forecast to fall to IFR at some point through the night, gradually
lifting through MVFR during the mid-morning hours, returning to
VFR in the early afternoon. There is a low chance for storms
tomorrow, only mentioning VCTS at TLH and ECP.

&&

.Prev Discussion [206 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
The upper trough along the U.S. east coast will shift offshore and
allow the ridge over TX to build back to the east. 590-dm heights
will be over the area Wednesday and Thursday. This feature will tend
to suppress convective coverage over what we have seen recently with
PoPs generally in the 20-30% range both days. The reduction in storm
coverage will of course be accompanied by an corresponding increase
in afternoon temps. Look for highs to be 3-4 degrees above normal
both days.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The upper ridge will be weakened by a tropical wave that will pass
south of the area across the Gulf of Mexico. Once the wave axis
passes west of the region, we will see an increase in deep layer
moisture. A front will also stall just northwest of the forecast
area. These features will increase rain chances somewhat over the
weekend, but particularly into early next week.


.Marine...
A very weak pressure gradient is forecast to remain in place through
the week. This will keep winds and seas well below any headline
criteria.


.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity will remain above 40 percent this week, preventing
us from reaching red flag conditions.


.Hydrology...
Recent rains have most area rivers rising now. However, overall
coverage of showers and storms will drop off over the next couple of
days, and with antecedent low flows, there are no imminent flooding
concerns.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  93  73  94  73 /  30  20  10  30  10
Panama City   76  90  76  90  76 /  30  30  10  30  20
Dothan        71  91  72  94  72 /  40  20  10  30  10
Albany        71  92  72  94  73 /  40  20  10  20  10
Valdosta      70  92  71  93  72 /  30  20  20  30  10
Cross City    70  92  71  92  71 /  20  30  20  30  20
Apalachicola  76  89  77  89  76 /  30  30  10  30  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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