Area Forecast Discussion
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503
FXUS62 KTAE 142108
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
408 PM EST Fri Nov 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
With clear skies and low dewpoints expected overnight, we`ll be
primed for another freeze for portions of the region. Although the
aforementioned conditions would suggest the possibility for a
widespread freeze, veering low layer flow will transport a slightly
more maritime airmass into parts of south-central Georgia and the
eastern Big Bend of Florida. Further, the more northeasterly flow
will also cutoff any significant CAA over the remainder of the area.
With the calm center of the ridge positioned over the Central
Appalachians overnight, optimal radiational cooling is not expected.
The most favorable areas for a freeze tonight will be where the
driest air resides, along with the lightest winds. Thus, a freeze
warning remains in effect for inland portions of the Florida
Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and southwest Georgia. Lows will range
from the upper 20s across southeast Alabama, to around 40 degrees
near Cross City. Light winds will result in apparent temperatures
around 5 degrees below actual readings.

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
A brief warm-up is on tap for the weekend as the center of high
pressure slides to the Carolinas and the low-level flow shifts to
the east and then southeast. Highs on Saturday will range from the
upper 50s in the north and west to the mid 60s in the south and
east. By Sunday, highs will recover into the upper 60s to lower
70s.

Deep moisture will begin to increase late on Sunday as the next
potent shortwave digs into the Southern Plains and surface low
pressure develops along the central Gulf Coast. Expect a few
showers to make it into the western portion of the forecast area
by late Sunday afternoon, with the coverage increasing quickly
Sunday night as a leading shortwave exits the base of the trough
and lifts northeast across the area.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
Active weather will be ongoing at the beginning of the period
Monday morning as a strong cold front moves across the forecast
area. Guidance is showing a quick surge of 60+ dewpoints into the
Panhandle and Big Bend during the morning hours, helping to
generate some surface-based CAPE near the coast. With deep layer
shear near 50 knots and 35 to 40 knot low-level jet, an isolated
strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out early in the day.
Otherwise, expect widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms
ahead of and just behind the front. The rain will end from west
to east during the afternoon and evening.

Much colder air will rush into the area Tuesday night, with
temperatures remaining well below normal through Thursday, before
moderation kicks in at the end of the week. Widespread freezes
are likely Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with hard freezes
possible as well.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected throughout the
TAF period. Northwesterly winds around 10KT this afternoon will
become light and northeasterly into the overnight hours.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will diminish through Saturday before increasing
again Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The onshore winds
Sunday and Sunday night will become offshore Monday afternoon with
Small Craft Advisory conditions developing behind the front. The
strong offshore winds will continue through Tuesday before
diminishing Tuesday night.

&&

.Fire Weather...
A gradual moistening trend will preclude any hazardous fire weather
conditions over the next several days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Dry conditions will persist through early Sunday before rain moves
into the area late Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches will be possible with this frontal passage. This may cause
some minor rises on area rivers and streams. However, with base
flows at low levels, no flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   36  63  44  70  57 /   0   0  10  10  50
Panama City   39  61  47  69  62 /   0   0  10  20  70
Dothan        29  58  40  67  55 /   0   0  10  20  90
Albany        30  60  39  69  54 /   0   0  10  20  70
Valdosta      35  61  45  69  55 /   0   0  10  10  50
Cross City    41  66  49  75  57 /   0   0  10  10  40
Apalachicola  43  61  49  69  63 /   0   0  10  10  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-Washington.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST /5 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

     High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for Coastal Gulf.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Calhoun-Clay-Decatur-Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lee-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Tift-Turner-
     Worth.

AL...Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM CST this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...MCDERMOTT







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