Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 151057

557 AM EST Sat Nov 15 2014

[Through 12Z Sunday] As high pressure slides eastward, winds will
shift to the east, bringing moisture in from the Atlantic coast.
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 03Z Sunday, but
overnight MVFR cigs are expected to move in from east to west
across VLD, ABY, and TLH. Light winds overnight will become east-
northeast at 5 to 10 after sunrise Saturday, becoming light again
after sunset.


.Prev Discussion [333 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Regional 06Z surface analysis showed a 1030mb high centered over
Srn IL. Another chilly day is on tap today as this ridge of
surface high pressure continues to slide eastward with mostly
zonal flow aloft. After a cold start with morning temperatures in
the upper 20s to upper 30s across the area and patchy frost
possible in our western zones, highs will only peak in the upper
50s to mid 60s with mostly clear skies.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
For tonight, temperatures will be warmer than last night as the
airmass continues to modify and low level flow starts to veer as
the ridge of high pressure slides eastward. Overnight lows are
expected to range mainly from the upper 30s across the far
northern areas to upper 40s across the southeast big bend.

For Sunday, we will just start to feel the affects of the next
system as a strong trough digs west of the area, although most of
the rain should hold off until the overnight hours into Monday.
There is a low chance of a few showers making it into the western
portion of the forecast area by late in the afternoon.
Temperatures and dewpoints will continue to rebound as the flow
continues to veer the southeast.

For Sunday night and Monday, this is when the main action will
occur. Both the GFS and Euro still agree on a strong cold front
moving through on Monday. Both models develop a wave of low
pressure along the front over the central Gulf coast and track it
northeastward through the southeast states. There are still some
timing differences with the 00z Euro around 6 hours slower than
the GFS. Wind fields will strengthen considerably ahead of the
front with 0-1 km shear around 30 knots and 0-6 km shear around 50
knots expected. In addition, both models forecast mid 60s
dewpoints to be pulled northward ahead of the front. As a result,
it looks like there will be enough SBCAPE to support a risk of
isolated strong to severe storms across the area. The best
estimate on timing for the greatest severe weather threat at this
time is from a few hours before daybreak on Monday through the
late morning hours.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Behind the strong cold front on Monday, another very cold and
dry airmass will move in with a widespread freeze likely on
Tuesday night and again on Wednesday night. In fact, some areas
could reach local hard freeze conditions (below 26 for at least 2
hours) on Tuesday night and come close again on Wednesday night.
Highs will likely range from the mid to upper 40s across the north
to the mid 50s across the southeast big bend both days. These
temperatures are a solid 20 degree or more below average for this
time of year. A gradual moderation is expected for the end of the

Winds and seas will diminish through today before increasing again
Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. The onshore winds
Sunday and Sunday night will become offshore Monday afternoon
with advisory conditions developing behind the front. The strong
offshore winds will continue through Tuesday night before
diminishing on Wednesday.

.Fire Weather...
Increasing moisture ahead of our next cold front will keep red flag
criteria away until mid-next week. On Tuesday and Wednesday, a much
drier, colder air mass will be in place and red flag conditions may
be possible.

Dry conditions will persist through most of the day on Sunday
before rain moves into the area Sunday night and Monday. Rainfall
amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be possible with this frontal
passage. This may cause some minor rises on area rivers and
streams. However, with base flows at low levels, no flooding is


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   63  44  72  58  70 /   0  10  10  30  80
Panama City   61  48  69  62  69 /   0  10  10  50  80
Dothan        58  39  68  56  63 /   0  10  20  70  80
Albany        59  39  68  55  66 /   0  10  10  50  80
Valdosta      61  44  71  56  71 /   0  10  10  30  80
Cross City    66  49  75  58  75 /   0  10  10  10  70
Apalachicola  62  49  69  63  73 /   0  10  10  40  80


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST /7 AM CST/ this morning for
     Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland

GA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM EST this morning for Baker-Ben Hill-

AL...Freeze Warning until 7 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-




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