Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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548
FXUS62 KTAE 242000
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
400 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

THE LOCAL AREA IS DOMINATED BY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL
FLOW HAS MAINTAINED MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION
OF THE AREA TODAY...ALTHOUGH SOME BREAKS ARE NOTED. FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...EXPECT PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, LOCAL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME ONSHORE BRINGING
WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (40-60%) AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE CWA. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHERNMOST ZONES AND
AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. A MODEST WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY] MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE
CEILING BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT...SOME
PATCHY FOG OR LOWER CEILINGS COULD REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA WITH
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENTS BACK TO VFR ARE EXPECTED
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN SO UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ELEVATE TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

MODEST RISES IN SOME OF THE LOCAL RIVER STAGES WERE OBSERVED FROM
THE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ALL SITES WERE BELOW ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   56  83  56  81  61 /  10  10  10  20  50
PANAMA CITY   60  75  62  76  61 /  10  10  10  20  60
DOTHAN        57  80  55  81  54 /  10  10  10  20  50
ALBANY        58  80  55  82  56 /  10  10  10  20  40
VALDOSTA      58  84  57  84  61 /  10  10  10  20  50
CROSS CITY    57  83  58  83  65 /  10  10  10  20  50
APALACHICOLA  60  74  63  77  64 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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