Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 150111

911 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Regional 00Z analysis shows a stationary frontal boundary across our
forecast area from Destin, FL to Bainbridge, GA to northeastern
Berrien county, GA. Convection along this front has been aided by
the seabreeze boundary, helping to redevelop showers and
thunderstorms along the line where convection would have otherwise
started dieing down for the night. This, along with the slow
southwestward propagation of storms this evening, is causing some
training of storms over Seminole and Decatur counties in GA. This
area would be the most likely area to see localized flooding if
the storms continue through the night, fortunately however local
radar imagery is showing storms in this area are finally start to
dissipate. Another line of dissipating thunderstorms is in our
northern Georgia counties. Once convection dies down around
midnight, patchy fog may develop in our southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia counties. Lows tonight will be in the low 70s.


[Through 00Z Tuesday] Low clouds and restricted visibility
are possible once again tonight, primarily at DHN, ABY, and VLD.
Cigs could approach airport minimums around sunrise. Thereafter, VFR
conditions are expected at all terminals through midday on Monday
when conditions may fluctuate between VFR and MVFR as thunderstorms
develop across the area again.


.Prev Discussion [326 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

The low-mid level flow (1000-500mb) will gradually veer from the
east to the south overnight and into Monday morning as the deep
layer ridge over the Gulf coast begins to erode and become focused
off the Southeast Atlantic coast. The changing flow pattern should
allow for a surge of increase moisture by Monday morning with
PWATs increasing into the 2.0" to 2.1" range. This will also place
our forecast area on the nose of a southerly max in 850mb moisture
transport from 12-18Z Monday. Convection-allowing models (CAM)
generally show a rapid increase in convective coverage during that
same time frame, and we increased PoPs above model guidance south
of Interstate-10 to account for that. By afternoon, showers and
storms should spread into the rest of the area, and we have 50-60%
PoPs in most locations. With the possibility of morning rain and
cloud cover in the Florida Panhandle, we reduced highs into the
upper 80s in those areas, with 90-92 degree highs elsewhere.

A brief lull is expected on Monday Night, although with our area
remaining in the axis of maximum low-level moisture transport it
is conceivable that isolated to scattered storms could persist
during the overnight hours. For Tuesday, the moisture levels
remain similar with PWATs around 2.1" to 2.2" but we should see
increased large-scale forcing. A digging, low-amplitude shortwave
trough should be approaching, with the exit region of a curved
60-70 knot upper level jet streak becoming positioned over the
area as well. With abundant moisture and increasing forcing for
ascent, we bumped PoPs up to 70% and are expecting fairly
widespread convective coverage. For the entire short term period
there will be a threat of locally heavy rain and isolated
flooding given the abundant moisture and slow-moving storms.

.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

As the upper level trough deepens and moves south, the stalled
frontal boundary will move off to the southeast bringing in
slightly drier air. PoPs will be highest Wednesday then will be in
the 10 to 30% range for the rest of the period. We will see a
taste of cooler temperatures with highs in the mid 80s and lows in
the mid to upper 60s.


Winds should generally be around 10 knots or less and seas should
be 3 feet or less for much of the forecast period with a
relatively weak surface pressure pattern. However, a building
surface high pressure ridge along the eastern seaboard from
Thursday into Friday should create a pattern that is typically
favorable for nocturnal increases in easterly winds. Therefore, we
are expecting an increase in winds and seas by next weekend.

.Fire Weather...

Red flag conditions are not expected through at least mid week.


While heavy rain is possible the next several days, all area
rivers are below flood stage so river flooding should not be a
concern. However, isolated flooding of low-lying or urban areas
cannot be ruled out, mainly through Tuesday evening.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  91  72  89  71 /  20  60  30  70  40
Panama City   76  87  75  87  73 /  30  60  30  70  50
Dothan        72  90  72  89  69 /  40  60  40  70  30
Albany        72  92  71  91  70 /  50  60  40  70  30
Valdosta      72  92  71  90  70 /  20  60  30  70  50
Cross City    72  91  71  89  71 /  30  40  30  60  50
Apalachicola  77  87  76  86  75 /  20  60  30  60  50


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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