Area Forecast Discussion
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767
FXUS62 KTAE 091903
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
303 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Drier air continues to be advected into the region this afternoon.
At 18z, high pressure was centered across Central Mississippi and
was expected to continue moving southeastward into our region
overnight. Clear skies and cool conditions are expected overnight.
With calm winds and a generally dry airmass in place, temperatures
should drop quickly after sunset. Even though both the NAM/GFS are
similar in their surface pressure patterns showing high pressure
directly over the region by sunrise, the MOS guidance is quite
different, with as much as 5 degrees difference in the low temp
forecast in a few spots. This could be due to model differences in
handling the very wet soil conditions. These wet soil conditions
may actually serve to keep temperatures a degree or two warmer
than normally expected. As a result, weighted the forecast closer
to warmer MET numbers and the previous forecast, which generally
was in the lower 40s across much of the region with mid to upper
40s at the coast.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The flow aloft is forecast to remain zonal through the rest of the
work week. At the surface, high pressure will slide eastward and
park over the Western Atlantic. This combination will keep the
weather dry with temperatures near seasonal normals (highs in
upper 70s/lower 80s and lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s).

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The beginning of the period starts with zonal flow aloft,
transitioning into a ridging pattern early Sunday keeping
conditions benign. The next chance for rain will take place Monday
afternoon as the next upper trough approaches, with PoPs
remaining in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday morning. Although
the GFS and Euro handle the upper level patterns around this time
differently, they generally agree on the timing of rain and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain average for the time of
year until Tuesday when highs will drop about 10 degrees across
the area into the lower 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Thursday] VRF conditions will prevail throughout the
period. Winds will stay elevated this afternoon with gusts up to
20 knots possible until shortly after sundown. Tomorrow, winds
will be light and from the E/SE.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will continue diminish overnight as high pressure
builds over the waters. With high pressure forecast to remain in
place, winds and seas will remain low through the weekend.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will be in place on Thursday with relative
humidities in the afternoon dropping into the low to mid 20
percent range. While the duration criteria will be met in Florida,
the ERC values are quite low (with the exception of Leon/Wakulla).
Similarly, in GA/AL relative humidity values will approach/exceed
critical levels, but other required criteria will not be met. The
airmass will slowly moisten on Friday and throughout the weekend,
thus red flag conditions are not expected for the next several
days.

&&

.Hydrology...
Crests are in progress or will happen shortly across Southern
Alabama within the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee and Pea
River basins. Ariton and Newton both reached moderate flood levels
in this event and will drop into the minor flood category tonight.
Geneva should crest on Thursday morning and will be very near
flood stage.

Further downstream at Caryville and Bruce, the Choctawhatchee
will continue rising with Caryville reaching its crest on Friday
evening just below moderate flood levels. It will still take a few
days for the crest wave to reach Bruce. Bruce should reach flood
stage by Friday evening. The latest forecast shows an eventual
crest near 16.3 feet, which is just below major flood stage. This
forecast may change, depending on further measurement of routed
flows from upstream sources, so there is potential for Bruce to
eventually crest just above major flood stage by Tuesday of next
week.

The Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River continues to rise downstream
of Columbia Lock/Dam, while releases upstream of these points have
largely stabilized. Inflows into Lake Seminole continue to require
releases nearing 10kcfs from Woodruff, which places the
Apalachicola just downstream of the dam very near flood stage.
These releases also will result in Blountstown cresting as high as
23 feet by Friday night. The latest release schedule does indicate
that flows should begin to stabilize around the 10kcfs level out
of Woodruff, thus using current release schedules from Woodruff,
moderate flooding is not anticipated at Blountstown.

The Flint will continue rising downstream of Albany. Newton
should stay below flood stage, but further downstream at
Bainbridge, the combination of high flows off the Ichawaynochaway
and routed flows from the Flint should result in minor flood
levels there by Friday.

In the Ochlockonee River, Thomasville and Concord have been
rising fast today with a little more water in the system than
anticipated. However, there still doesn`t appear to be quite
enough to result in flood stages being met above Lake Talquin -
though Concord will be close.

Elsewhere, the Withlacoochee at Valdosta appears to be cresting a
foot below flood stage. For the Suwannee, while high flows are
coming in from the Upper Suwannee, inflows from the Alapaha and
Withlacoochee will not be sufficient to result in any flooding
along the Middle Suwannee River points through the first of the
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  43  78  43  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   72  48  74  54  77 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        70  44  78  48  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        72  43  79  46  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  43  78  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    74  44  79  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  48  72  52  74 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP/HELLER
AVIATION...GODSEY/HELLER
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







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