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930
FXUS62 KTAE 170730
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
330 AM EDT Fri May 17 2013


.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Rather broad troughing covers the southeastern part of the country,
emanating from an area of mid/upper level low pressure beginning to
merge back into the northern stream flow. This low, and associated
trough will gradually move east through tonight. At the surface,
high pressure will nose westward veering flow from the southeast to
a more southerly direction. Based on model soundings, it appears as
though we will still be too dry to squeeze any showers out of the
seabreeze fronts this afternoon, as forecast PWATs depict below
average moisture content. Further, the best forcing associated with
the aforementioned trough will remain well to our northwest and keep
any synoptically forced showers and thunderstorms outside of the
Tri-State region. Expect partly cloudy skies, with upper 80s away
from the coast, and near 80 degrees along the coast. Overnight,
showers will inch closer to the region, but should still remain
northwest of our southeast Alabama, and western Georgia counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM [Saturday Through Sunday]...
Very Little change in thinking from the previous forecast, as 90
degree High Temperatures appear in store for much of the interior of
our CWA over the upcoming weekend. The one fly in the ointment will
be the eastward progress of a closed Upper Level Low which is now
moving through the lower MS Valley. The trof associated with this
Low will likely provide just enough lift and instability to produce
20-30 percent PoPs during the afternoon hours, especially across
northern and eastern portions of the region, before Upper Level
Ridging builds in from the west thereafter.

&&

.LONG TERM [Sunday Night through Wednesday]...
Deep layer ridging is expected over the Southeast U.S. through mid
week. A weak trough is forecast to develop later in the work week.
The GFS and ECMWF differ on exactly when and how much this trough
will develop. Regardless, the NWP guidance consensus is close to
climatology for PoP and temperatures. The PoP will be in the 20-30%
range through the period, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. It will be a warm period, especially given our
relatively cool spring so far, with highs near 90 and lows in the
60s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Patchy fog is expected along the Panhandle coast early this morning,
affecting primarily KECP. The extent of the inland spread is
uncertain at this time, with the possibility for fog at both KTLH
and KDHN by sunrise. Early indications are that restrictions will be
up-and-down between MVFR and IFR before the fog quickly clears after
sunrise. Thereafter, VFR conditions are anticipated for the
remainder of the TAF.

&&

.MARINE...
Generally light onshore winds and low seas will dominate our Coastal
Waters for the next several days, with just some minor enhancements
near the coast with the afternoon sea breeze.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds for
the next several days. Therefore, Red Flag conditions are not
anticipated.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Area rivers and streams will remain well below flood stage for the
next several days with very little rain in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   86  61  90  64  90 /  0   0  20  10  20
Panama City   81  67  83  67  83 /  0   0  10  10  10
Dothan        87  65  89  66  89 /  0  10  20  20  20
Albany        88  65  90  65  89 /  0  10  30  20  30
Valdosta      89  63  91  63  90 /  0  10  20  20  30
Cross City    86  62  88  63  88 /  0   0  20  10  30
Apalachicola  79  65  81  67  81 /  0   0  10  10  10

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Harrigan
SHORT TERM...Gould
LONG TERM...Fournier
AVIATION...Harrigan
MARINE...Gould
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Gould