Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 010159
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
859 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Split upper-level flow continues across the CONUS, with the polar
branch of the jet stream remaining near the Canadian border and the
subtropical branch stretching across the South. A fairly potent
mid-level shortwave is currently sparking some showers in northern
MS and AL, but dry air at the surface is preventing much of the
associated precipitation from reaching the surface. This dry air
remains entrenched in our area with relative humidity values only
around 40% regionwide at 0Z tonight, which will likely keep our CWA dry
through the rest of the period. Despite many current dew points in
the lower 30s and light winds, a repeat of this morning`s
sub-freezing temperatures will not occur tonight as high clouds will
increase in coverage through the overnight hours. The current
forecast looks good with temperatures ranging from mid-upper 30s
outside of urban areas in the Big Bend region to lower 40s elsewhere.
[Through 00Z Sunday]...
VFR conditions with mostly mid and upper level cloudiness. Winds
will be light through the period.
.Prev Discussion [334 PM EST]...
.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Fair conditions under deep layer ridging will dominate through the
short term period. Expect temperatures to warm into the lower 70s
on Saturday, and into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees on Sunday.
Overnight lows in the mid 40s on Saturday night, will warm into
the lower 50s on Sunday night. No rain is anticipated.
.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
The extended range forecast will be much more active than the
weekend. Expect a shortwave trough to roll through the Southeast
on Monday, dragging a cold front through the local area. For now,
it appears as though the front will weaken as it moves through the
region, bringing mostly showers with an occasional rumble of
thunder. The more potent system will come near the end of the week
when a strong, positively tilted trough moves into the western
Gulf, spawning strong Gulf cyclogenesis. The surface low is
forecast to move into the northeast Gulf, but whether we get "warm
sectored" which would favor severe thunderstorms is a bit
uncertain at this time. Expect temperatures to generally remain
seasonable through the extended range, in the upper 60s for highs,
and mid 40s for lows.
Generally low winds and seas will prevail through mid-week next
week. The only exception may be a brief uptick to cautionary
levels on Monday night behind a cold front.
Low level moisture and daytime temperatures will gradually
increase over the weekend as surface winds swing around to the
east and then southeast. Minimum afternoon relative humidities will
be above critical levels...so red flag criteria will not be met.
With no rainfall expected through the weekend, area rivers will
continue to subside from recent rains. Early next week, a cold
front will bring another round of rain to the area, though average
totals appears as though they`ll remain below a half of an inch.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 37 72 43 75 51 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 46 67 51 70 58 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 41 70 46 76 55 / 10 0 0 0 10
Albany 40 69 44 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 40 71 45 76 52 / 0 0 0 0 0
Cross City 40 73 45 78 51 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 44 65 50 68 59 / 0 0 0 0 10