Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 261437

1037 AM EDT Tue Aug 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Strong high pressure along the eastern seaboard will continue to
produce northeasterly flow across the forecast area today. 12Z
KTAE sounding indicates that low-level moisture (below 700mb) has
increased slightly since last night, so a few shallow showers may
make into the Big Bend during the afternoon. However, coverage
will pretty minimal with current 20 percent PoPs south of I-10
still in good shape. Temperatures will be warm again today with
highs in the lower 90s. However, with relatively low dewpoints and
th northeasterly breeze, the heat should be bearable.


[Through 12Z Wednesday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period, with gusty northeasterly winds possible during
the afternoon hours.


.Prev Discussion [455 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

As was mentioned on Monday, daytime high temperatures will still be
considered on the Hot side with most afternoon temps rising into the
middle 90s each day away from the immediate coast and over extreme
northern portions of the CWA. However, with surface dewpoints
expected to mix out into the upper 50s to the middle 60s with all of
the deep layer dry air just ready to mix down to the surface (TAE`s
00 UTC PWAT was a remarkably low 1.13" for this time of year),
afternoon relative humidities will drop into the 30s each afternoon.
The end result of this will be Maximum Heat Indices that will be
almost exactly the same as the Maximum High the middle
90s. On Thursday, a few upper 90s may sneak into the fcst across N
FL, but this will be a far cry from the 4 consecutive days of Heat
Indices of 108 to 115+.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

After a dry day on Thursday, The GFS and ECMWF forecast the return
of a moisture-rich boundary layer on Friday and Saturday as the deep
layer flow shifts from east to south. However, neither model shows
much in the way of Q-G forcing with this return in moisture, and the
mid layer tropospheric moisture isn`t that impressive. This would
suggest near climo PoPs (peaking around 40% at each site`s
locally-favored diurnal peak). The GFS and ECMWF diverge a bit Sunday
and Monday, as the GFS forecasts plentiful deep layer moisture
(and even some weak Q-G forcing) over our region as a series of
short wave troughs translate eastward over the Gulf Coast states.
The ECMWF rebuilds a 500 mb high (and dry, sinking air aloft) over
our forecast area, which would result in below-climo PoPs and
above-climo high temperatures. The GFS hasn`t been very consistent
from run to run. Additionally, we`re heading into the climatological
transition to lower PoPs. Our forecast is a blend of the two
solutions, with a little more weight given to the drier ECMWF


With a fairly tight pressure pattern and relatively cool and dry air
advection for this time of year, the Small Craft Advisory conditions
out of the northeast are persisting across the coastal waters early
this morning, but should finally diminish to Cautionary levels for
this afternoon and tonight, where we will have a fairly rare
easterly surge in the winds tonight. This particular pattern usually
occurs in the Winter and Spring months, so we have yet another
footnote to add to our unusual summer of 2014.

.Fire Weather...

Through drier conditions are expected through much of this week,
relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Thus red
flag conditions are not expected.


With little to no measurable rainfall expected across the Tri-State
region until Friday and the upcoming weekend, there are no pressing
hydrological concerns at the present time.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  71  95  70  95 /  10  10  20  10  10
Panama City   92  75  91  75  91 /  10  20  20  10  10
Dothan        92  68  93  68  95 /   0  10  10  10  10
Albany        91  68  93  67  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      91  67  94  67  95 /  10  10  10  10  10
Cross City    91  68  94  69  94 /  20  10  20  10  10
Apalachicola  91  76  89  76  90 /  20  20  10  10  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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