Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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792
FXUS62 KTAE 221949
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
349 PM EDT SUN MAR 22 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS WITH A +PV
ANOMALY WILL SLIDE EWARD ACROSS THE SRN STATES AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS UPPER LEVEL ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY ENHANCING
LIFT OVER AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE CENTRAL LA-MS
BORDER. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S-SWWARD FROM THIS LOW OUT ALONG THE TX
COASTLINE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDS EWARD FROM IT ACROSS N FL. A
SECONDARY WARM FRONT LIES OUT OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS ABOUT 60 NM
OFFSHORE.

AS THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EWARD THROUGH TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE
SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO
EAST. WITH ABOUT 40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS, PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE CLOUD COVER HAS CLEARED
OUT SOME TO ALLOW DAYTIME HEATING, WE MAY GET JUST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO SEE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND UP TO QUARTER SIZE
HAIL.

.SHORT TERM [MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT]...

THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
DRAGGING A SWWD TRAILING COLD FRONT WITH IT BY DAYBREAK MONDAY.
POPS WILL BE CHANCE TO LIKELY IN THE MORNING TAPERING DOWN TO
CHANCE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES MONDAY EVENING, OTHERWISE, IT
WILL BE A DRY FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. ON
TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BUILD
SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WITH NORTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE. THIS WILL SERVE TO BRING COOLER TEMPS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES ESPECIALLY FOR OUR NORTHERN TIER GA ZONES.

.LONG TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY]...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BE
MOVING EAST WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING LATE THURSDAY OR
EARLY FRIDAY. A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY
WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS THE AXIS TRANSLATES ACROSS THE GULF
COASTAL STATES AND EVENTUALLY OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FROM CANADA WILL DROP INTO THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES OVER
THE WEEKEND COULD BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
LATE MARCH WITH HIGHS RANGING FORM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER TO
MID 60S SOUTH. A FEW OF OUR NORTHERN ZONES MAY EVEN SEE A LIGHT
FREEZE FOR SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FOR NOW WILL SHOW THE COLDEST
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERNMOST GEORGIA ZONES.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 18Z MONDAY] SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE AT ECP, TLH, AND VLD.
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH
MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL SWING
AROUND TO BECOME EAST ON TUESDAY AND THEN SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. WINDS AND SEAS MAY ELEVATE TO
AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE NEXT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MARINE AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WELL AWAY FROM RED FLAG LEVELS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2
INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
STORMS AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN MODEST RISES ON AREA RIVERS WITH A FEW FORECAST
POINTS IN SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REACHING
ACTION STAGE IN THE EARLY PORTION OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   62  78  53  74  56 /  70  50  10   0   0
PANAMA CITY   62  73  52  70  59 /  60  40  10   0   0
DOTHAN        57  73  48  71  54 /  70  50  10   0   0
ALBANY        56  66  48  68  54 /  90  50  10   0   0
VALDOSTA      61  71  50  71  56 /  90  70  20   0   0
CROSS CITY    64  79  53  76  58 /  70  60  20   0   0
APALACHICOLA  64  79  55  70  59 /  60  40  10   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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