Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 220120
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
820 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2015
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
A low pressure system over the Lower Mississippi Valley, will likely
bring rain to the northwest part of the CWA overnight. Strong
southerly flow ahead of the low is bringing a warm, moist air mass
into the region. As the cold front moves closer expect an increase
in cloud cover with rain possible overnight particularly in the
northwestern areas. Lows tonight will be mild in the 50s due to
increasing cloud cover and warm air advection.
.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
With nearly zonal flow aloft and well moderated sfc high pressure at
lower levels, a very unseasonably warm day is expected across the
region on Sunday with rain chances increasing from NW to SE by the
mid to late afternoon. Before this occurs, however, high
temperatures will soar into the upper 70s to the south and east to
the lower 70s to the NW where the rain will be more prevalent.
Thereafter, the inclement weather will become more prevalent across
the tri-state area and this will result in progressively lower
temperatures for the rest of the short term period. The heaviest
rainfall should still hold off until the extended portion of the
fcst, but for those who wish to enjoy some outdoor activities,
Sunday morning is the recommended time period.
.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
As mentioned above, this week`s period looks like the most
synoptically active in quite some time over the region, as the
sub-tropical jet stream will be extremely active, while also very
progressive. Furthermore, it will not be terribly amplified, with
its fulcrum setting up very near or along the Gulf Coast, which
will allow for a series of fast moving low pressure systems to
traverse the Gulf coast and our CWA. While final storm total
rainfall amounts will likely be significantly higher before all is
said and done, our current calculations which now go out through
Wednesday, are fairly uniform between 2.3" and 3.3" of rain. With
the water tables still fairly elevated, any significant totals
through Saturday could cause some rises worth monitoring on some of
our area basins, as at the very least, the water tables will not
recede much if at all this upcoming week.
[Through 00Z Monday]
MVFR vsbys/cigs will likely occur overnight at DHN and ECP and
possibly at TLH. Additionally, an approaching cold front will bring
a chance for rain at DHN before daybreak. Light rain will gradually
spread eastward and impact ALB by late Sunday morning or afternoon.
As was well described in the previous marine discussions, Small
Craft Advisory conditions, which are clearly more prominent to the
west and especially over MOB`s waters will gradually subside from
west to east tonight, as the strong onshore winds and eventually the
seas which will lag slightly slowly subside.
There are no fire weather concerns at least through the upcoming
There will be several opportunities for rain over the next week.
Sunday through Tuesday, rainfall will be light with totals less than
an inch. Tuesday night into Wednesday, however, a low pressure
system will develop along the Gulf coast and may bring about 2-2.5"
of rain across the area with isolated higher totals possible. This
will cause rises on area rivers and may bring a few of our sites up
to action stage. Ensemble river forecasts show this is most likely
to occur on the Aucilla River at Lamont which is currently in action
stage and falling, but may rise back to action stage should they get
the forecast rainfall. It will also be possible for the Ochlockonee
and Flint Rivers to reach action stage this week. No flooding is
forecast at this time.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 51 77 56 67 48 / 10 30 20 20 40
Panama City 59 71 56 63 47 / 40 30 20 30 40
Dothan 56 73 49 58 41 / 50 60 50 30 40
Albany 52 73 51 59 41 / 30 50 50 30 30
Valdosta 51 78 55 66 46 / 10 20 20 20 40
Cross City 49 77 54 72 50 / 10 20 10 20 30
Apalachicola 58 71 58 66 51 / 20 20 20 20 30
FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Sunday for Coastal
Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.
High Surf Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for South Walton.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for Coastal waters
From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.