Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 111901
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
301 PM EDT Sat May 11 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Local radars show a Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) about 100
miles south of Panama City at 18z moving to the east at 30 mph.
The strongest convection so far has been across our coastal waters
but will have to monitor this activity closely as it approaches
our southeast Big Bend counties later this afternoon.
Otherwise...the northern edge of the rain shield is currently
across our southern tier Georgia zones with the back edge already
pushing through the western panhandle and southeast Alabama. A
drier airmass will begin to filter in from the northwest overnight
as a cold front enters our CWA. Will taper PoPs from slight
extreme northwest to likely southeast. Patchy fog will likely
develop overnight. Min temps will be in the lower to mid 60s.
.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The cold front will cross the area on Sunday. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the boundary.
While the best threat for strong storms will be over the FL
Peninsula, we cannot completely rule out a strong storm over the
southeastern FL Big Bend counties based on expected CAPE and shear
profiles. Another front will sweep across the area late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night bringing and end to rain chances for the
remainder of this period. This reinforcing of cooler air will send
temps tumbling back into the 40s along and north of a line from VLD
to TLH to ECP. The northern tier of zones will see mid 40s. Monday`s
highs will peak in the upper 70s. Monday night will be the coldest
night of the period for the FL Big Bend and South Central GA where
mid 40s will be possible. A few record lows may be in jeopardy on
these two mornings.
.LONG TERM [Tuesday through Saturday]...
The period will begin with an upper level trough pulling away to the
northeast and short wave ridging building in from the west. The
upper ridge axis will reach our zones on Wednesday and then be
shunted to the east by the next trough that will impact the area
late in the week. The GFS is more diffuse than the Euro with the
energy in this system and also more progressive. At the surface,
high pressure will drop south across the area on Tuesday and then
remain in place just south of the area through the period. This
ridge will work to hold off any would be shower activity until
Friday and Saturday when a front will approach from the north. Look
for 20-30 PoPs on those days. Max temps will be near normal (mid
80s) through the period. Overnight lows will be a bit below normal
Tuesday night and then return to normal after that time.
[through 18 UTC Sunday] Based on latest radar displays, we have
trimmed back significantly on convection at all our TAF sites.
TLH is now the only terminal that has mention of TSRA with the
remaining terminals either -RA or VCSH. IFR cigs will develop
later tonight along with MVFR visibilities in fog. VSBYS will
return to VFR shortly after sunrise but MVFR/IFR cigs may linger
into late Sunday morning.
Onshore winds will shift to offshore behind a cold front tonight.
After a second cold frontal passage Sunday evening, winds will pick
up to cautionary to marginal advisory levels. Winds will begin to
subside once again by Monday afternoon. Winds will become onshore
again by Tuesday afternoon and remain so into Thursday.
Drier air will be moving into the region during the next couple of
days after a cloudy and wet beginning to the weekend. No Fire
Weather concerns are expected on Sunday, but with potential minimum
Relative Humidities falling into the Upper teens to lower 20s on
Monday, a Fire Weather Watch may be needed for parts of the Florida
Big Bend and Panhandle if ERC values are high enough.
With the MCS largely tracking across the Gulf of Mexico, we no
longer foresee any possibility for problems on areas streams and
creeks over the weekend.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 66 83 49 79 45 / 30 20 10 0 0
Panama City 67 83 55 78 56 / 30 10 10 0 0
Dothan 62 80 47 79 51 / 20 10 0 0 0
Albany 62 80 46 77 49 / 30 10 0 0 0
Valdosta 64 82 49 77 46 / 40 20 10 0 0
Cross City 66 83 56 80 46 / 60 30 10 0 0
Apalachicola 67 81 56 77 51 / 30 20 10 0 0
Rest of Discussion...Wool