Area Forecast Discussion
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635 FXUS62 KTAE 280840 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 340 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Surface high pressure currently centered over the Tennessee Valley will settle into our area by this afternoon. Given the shallow nature of the cold air mass, it is not surprising to see forecast soundings with a frontal inversion around 2000-3000 ft GAL. The limited mixing layer depth should keep temperatures somewhat cool today despite abundant sunshine. Highs will be in the 50s, or around 10-15 degrees below normal. .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... The relatively cold weather pattern will continue tonight with a light freeze for most inland areas along with areas of frost. On Saturday, the surface ridge slides further east with low level flow becoming onshore. Meanwhile, the upper ridge will be building in from the west with deep layer ridging firmly in place on Sunday. This will mean dry conditions along with a warming trend. Highs will be in the mid 60s most areas Saturday and the lower to mid 70s on Sunday. lows Saturday will be in the lower o mid 40s inland areas and around 50 along the coast. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The deep layer ridging will begin to break down and move east as a short wave trough approaches and enters our CAW Monday night and Tuesday. However, with deep moisture lacking and weak upper level forcing we currently don`t see much opportunity for rain with this feature. As the trough passes to our east on Wednesday, the mid/upper level flow becomes nearly zonal through the remainder of the week. Lows will be near average through the period, generally in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs will also be near average, in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[through 12Z Saturday] FR conditions with unlimited ceilings and visibility and light winds will prevail through the period.
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&& .Marine...
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Advisory conditions will persist beyond 20 NM offshore through this morning, followed by a decrease in winds and seas for the weekend into early this week.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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A moderately dry air mass will linger over the region through the weekend, but RH will not reach critical levels.
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&& .Hydrology...
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The Matchlock River is cresting at Thomas ville about 2 feet above action stage. As this water further moves downstream toward Concord and Havana, expect these sites to similarly crest above action stage late on Sunday or early on Monday. The Little River in Sen GA is continuing to rise with a crest expected late this weekend above action stage at Hiram. Water in this and the Chattahoochee will contribute to rises downstream into the middle SUWANNEE, but these rises will be minor and stay well below action stage. Elsewhere, our river points have crested from earlier rains, with the exception of the lower portions of the Choctaw and Apalachicola Rivers. With no significant rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are anticipated in the near future.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
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Tallahassee 56 30 66 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 55 41 65 51 71 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 54 34 66 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 53 31 64 40 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 54 32 65 40 73 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 58 31 68 41 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 57 42 64 52 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .ATE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for Waters from SUWANNEE River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Apalachicola to DESTIN FL from 20 to 60 NM.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...BARRY AVIATION...LAMERS MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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