Area Forecast Discussion
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726 FXUS62 KTAE 231504 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1104 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The 12Z Tallahassee sounding revealed a very shallow inversion layer around only 800 ft AGL. This shallow inversion has mixed out quickly, which allowed the TLH temperature to increase from 43 to 63 (20 degree increase) in just two hours between 8 AM and 10 AM. However, a stronger frontal inversion aloft should limit how warm the temperatures can get today, despite sunny skies. Model consensus is in the mid-upper 70s for highs, and that is what we are forecasting as well. There were very few changes from the inherited forecast.
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&& .Prev Discussion [253 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... A northern stream shortwave currently over the Northern Plains will dive into and through the Southeast Friday through Saturday. With a large pool of dry air sprawling across the eastern third of the country through the central Gulf, and a very progressive wave, there won`t be nearly enough return flow to supply any deep layer moisture to the system as it moves into our region. Further, low-level flow will remain northerly around high pressure which will hardly be affected by the passing shortwave. In short, Friday and Saturday will remain dry with highs near seasonal averages, and lows around 10 degrees below average. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario. .Aviation... [Through 12Z Friday] VFR conditions and light northeasterly winds will prevail through the forecast period. .Marine... Cautionary level winds will prevail through today, before a gradual weakening through the weekend as the calm center of high pressure moves nearer. Winds will veer southeasterly and increase once again early next week. No rain is expected through the weekend. .Fire Weather... Humidity values will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s today and Friday across the area. However, with light winds, and ERC values forecast to remain below 37, no Red Flag conditions are expected at this time. .Hydrology... Dry conditions will continue through at least mid-week next week, with no hydrological issue to report.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 77 44 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 75 53 78 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 74 46 78 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 74 45 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 75 44 78 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 78 45 80 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 75 53 77 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...WOOL AVIATION...CAMP MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...CAMP HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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