Area Forecast Discussion
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845 FXUS62 KTAE 010626 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 226 AM EDT Mon Sep 1 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Another day with deep ridging of high pressure over the southeast will allow for the sea-breeze to be the main driver of today`s weather. With the 1000-700mb winds being generally from the southeast at less than 10 knots, we will see a regime 2 sea-breeze day. This means chances for showers and thunderstorms will be highest over the coastal waters in the morning, with afternoon coverage filling in primarily in north Florida and in southwest Georgia. Temperatures today will warmer than normal for the first day of September, with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Heat indices around 100. .Short Term [Tonight Through Wednesday]... Upper level high pressure will remain centered over or near the forecast area through the period. This will help to keep PoPs slightly below normal with correspondingly above normal temps. This evening`s PoPs will primarily be the result of the Atlantic sea breeze reaching South Central GA and the eastern Big Bend. Overall coverage will be fairly uniform after that, just slightly higher to the east on Tuesday. A TUTT will approach from the southeast and reach South FL by Wednesday. However, this feature will have little to no impact of the short-term forecast. .Long Term [Wednesday Night Through Monday]... The start of the period will be dominated by a ridge in place over the Southeast with normal chances of rain. Tropical moisture off the east coast of Florida will bring higher rain chances starting Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 06Z Tuesday] With the exception of brief MVFR vsbys at our northern terminals in the early morning hours, VFR conditions will prevail through the period with light winds from the south.
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&& .Marine...
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A ridge of high pressure will remain north of the waters keeping winds light and out of the east or southeast most of this week. Of course, the sea breeze will veer the winds to onshore each afternoon and evening near the coast.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Despite drier air, relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds, preventing us from reaching red flag criteria this week.
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&& .Hydrology...
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River levels will remain at their below normal levels this week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 96 74 95 73 95 / 30 10 40 20 30 Panama City 91 78 91 77 91 / 30 10 30 20 30 Dothan 96 73 96 73 95 / 20 10 30 20 30 Albany 96 73 96 73 96 / 20 20 30 20 30 Valdosta 96 72 94 72 94 / 40 30 40 20 30 Cross City 94 72 93 71 93 / 40 30 40 20 30 Apalachicola 90 76 91 76 90 / 30 10 30 20 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...MOORE SHORT TERM...WOOL LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...MOORE MARINE...WOOL FIRE WEATHER...MOORE HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH

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