Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231051

651 AM EDT Wed Apr 23 2014

[Through 12Z Thursday] IFR conditions have taken hold at KTLH,
KECP, and KABY this morning. However, cigs and vsby should remain
mostly above airport minimums. VFR conditions expected by mid-
morning through the evening. A repeat of the low clouds and some
fog is expected again tonight.


.Prev Discussion [329 AM EDT]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weak frontal boundary will stall and begin to dissipate across the
region today as a low-amplitude ridge builds over the southeastern
states. Despite the presence of the weak boundary, the atmosphere is
expected to be too dry and stable to support anything other than a
very isolated brief shower or two, with PoPs below 10 percent at
most. Expect high temperatures to reach the lower 80s, except along
the coast, where a vigorous seabreeze will hold temperatures down
several degrees.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Southerly flow will return more moisture to the region by the
start of the short term period. A weak upper level disturbance
will move through the region on Thursday afternoon. A strong sea
breeze in in the afternoon, both from the Gulf and Atlantic will
likely be the focus for a few scattered showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon, particularly along the I-75 corridor. Opted
for 30 percent pops in this area tapering down to around 20
percent further westward into South Central Georgia and the
Florida Big Bend.

By Friday, another weak disturbance will move through the region,
but with this system having less energy to work with than the one
on Thursday, will keep pops 10 percent or less for now.

Temperatures throughout the period will be quite warm with highs
warming into the mid 80s each afternoon. With a strong sea breeze
circulation during the afternoon over shelf waters in the upper
60s, expect temperatures near the coast to be several degrees
cooler than the inland sites. Overnight lows will be a few degrees
warmer than normal and generally in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
By Saturday, a weak surface trough will extend down from the
Great Lakes. This trough will become oriented SW to NE as the
parent low moves off to the northeast and the trough weakens.
Southerly flow off the Gulf and weak forcing will cause a slight
chance of thunderstorms over the the northern half of our area
through Saturday. Ridging will settle in on Sunday with southerly
surface flow which will bring highs in the mid to upper 80s during
the day. At the end of the period both the GFS and EURO show a
very amplified pattern emerging with a deep upper-level trough
digging down over the southern Plains. While these models differ
some in timing and structure, they both show a blocking pattern
emerging with a strong upper ridge in the west and an amplified
deep trough in the east. This system should be our best chance of
seeing showers and thunderstorms in the extended period.

Expect winds and seas to stay fairly light throughout the period
without any large storm systems to affect the marine area. The
only exception to this will be each afternoon in the sea breeze
zone where winds in the 10 to 15 knot range will be common.

.Fire Weather...
With dewpoints expected to remain generally in the 60s today and mid
to upper 50s on Thursday, relative humidity values will remain above
critical levels. No Red Flag conditions are expected.

Many of our river points in Florida remain above flood stage.
Crests have occurred in the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee
and Chipola Rivers at Caryville and Marianna, respectively. Bruce
is cresting this morning at 18.3 feet and will likely remain in
major flood through the remainder of the work week. The Chipola
will finally crest around 25.5 feet later this afternoon and then
begin a steady fall. The combination of the high flows down the
Chipola and increasing flows down the Apalachicola will likely
result in flooding for areas around Wewahitchka and Southern
Liberty County. With releases out of Woodruff lower each day,
expect Blountstown to slowly drop. Further east on the
Ochlockonee River, Havana has crested and will likely drop below
moderate flood stage by Friday.

In Alabama/Georgia, all of the river points continue to drop
steadily with the only exception being over on the Withlacoochee
where modest rises will continue at the US-84 crossing near
Quitman. With peak flows from the Little River and further
upstream from the Withlacoochee moving past this site later
tonight, expect the river to crest just below the moderate flood

For the Suwannee, expect modest rises to continue well into the
weekend. While the Withlacoochee above Pinetta and the Upper
Suwannee have yet to crest, the Alapaha River has, with its peak
flow discharging into the Suwannee now. Crests for the Middle
Suwannee likely won`t occur until the middle of next week with
points on the Lower Suwannee cresting much later than that. Most
points (if not there already) will reach minor flood stage.
Luraville and Wilcox have the best potential of reaching the
moderate flood levels.

Additional precipitation over the next 7 days does not appear
great enough to cause any additional rises over what is already in
the river systems. However, beyond this time frame, the pattern
suggests that there is some potential for heavier rains in the
Wed-Fri timeframe next week that could impact river levels.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   82  59  84  60  85 /  10   0  10  10  10
Panama City   74  62  77  63  73 /  10   0  10  10  10
Dothan        81  59  85  61  86 /   0   0  10  10  10
Albany        82  57  85  60  86 /   0   0  20  10  10
Valdosta      82  60  84  59  85 /   0   0  30  20  10
Cross City    80  60  83  58  82 /   0   0  20  10  10
Apalachicola  75  60  76  61  72 /  10   0  10  10  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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