Area Forecast Discussion
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646 FXUS62 KTAE 211347 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 947 AM EDT Tue Oct 21 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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The first few frames of morning visible satellite reveal that our forecast area is situated just north of a more extensive mid-high level cloud deck associated with a deeper moisture plume and upper level jet streak. This should provide a sunny day with very limited cloud cover. The 12Z Tallahassee sounding did reveal +1C temperature change below 850mb as compared to 24 hours prior. The slight warming of the boundary layer and sunny skies should lead to a slightly warmer day with highs in the low-mid 80s, which is just above normal for this time of year.
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&& .Prev Discussion [229 AM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]... The low pressure system over the northeast CONUS will become vertically stacked on Wednesday and move slowly eastward and off the New England coast on Thursday. The local area will continue to reside on the backside of the associated though through early Wednesday. The upper pattern will then gradually transition to become nearly zonal by late Thursday. This will keep deep layer north to northwest flow over the Tri-state area through the period. At the surface, high pressure will build down from the north and filter a cooler and much drier airmass into the region on light northerly winds in the wake of another dry cold frontal passage tonight. Under abundant sunshine, daytime highs both days will be just under seasonal levels. With the dry airmass in place, low temps will be below normal. Min temps tonight will range from around 50 to the lower 50s except mid to upper 50s along the immediate coast. Lows Wednesday night will dip into the lower to mid 40s all zones except around 50 to the lower 50s along the coast. .Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]... The dry pattern looks to continue through the extended. The 20/00z Euro keeps the pattern more progressive at the end of the period similar to the GFS. The lack of deep moisture is expected to keep PoPs below 20 percent through the period with daytime highs near average and overnight lows a few degrees below average. .Aviation... [Through 06Z Wednesday] Outside of a possible brief period of MVFR visibilities at VLD this morning, VFR conditions under clear skies and relatively light winds will prevail through the TAF. .Marine... Offshore flow will prevail at least through the remainder of the work week. Winds and seas will be somewhat elevated on Wednesday and Thursday as another dry cold front moves through. .Fire Weather... Relative humidity levels will remain above critical thresholds today, but will flirt with Red Flag levels both Wednesday and Thursday. However at this time, even if critical thresholds are met, duration and/or wind criteria will most likely not. Marginally high dispersions will also be possible tomorrow in the wake of a dry cold front. Thus, although Red Flag criteria is not expected at this time, it may be close on Wed. and Thu. and caution should be exercised on Wednesday due to the forecast marginally high dispersion indices. .Hydrology... Dry weather is expected for the next several days with no flooding concerns.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 85 51 79 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 0 Panama City 82 59 79 51 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dothan 82 50 77 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 Albany 82 49 77 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 83 51 77 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 0 Cross City 86 53 81 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 81 59 79 51 77 / 0 0 0 0 0
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...BARRY LONG TERM...DVD AVIATION...HARRIGAN MARINE...BARRY FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN HYDROLOGY...DVD

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