Area Forecast Discussion
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980 FXUS62 KTAE 220210 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1010 PM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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Convective activity has diminished quickly this evening, and any lingering rain showers and thunderstorms are mostly confined to the coastal waters east of Apalachicola. Therefore, much of the overnight hours should be dominated by clearing skies and dry weather. Low temperatures should mostly be in the mid 70s inland and around 80 near the coast.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00z Saturday] Convection is diminishing this evening and VFR conditions are expected to prevail with the exception of the possibility for some MVFR visibility around VLD around sunrise.
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&& .Prev Discussion [301 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]... Deep layer ridging will suppress shower and thunderstorm activity the next few days as dry mid-level air overspreads the Tri-State region. Expect only isolated storms on the sea breeze each afternoon. The more impactful weather element will be the above average temperatures forecast each afternoon. Widespread maximum temperatures around 100 degrees will, by nature, yield apparent temperatures nearing heat advisory criteria (~108 degrees). This will be especially true nearer to the coast where dewpoints will be highest along and behind of the sea breeze front. In coastal locations heat indices will likely reach 110 degrees each day. Will maintain the current heat advisory for the aforementioned reasons. .Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]... Northwesterly low-layer flow will veer to a more easterly direction increasing boundary layer moisture, while deep layer ridging persists. This increase in moisture will result in near normal PoPs to start the period. By early next week there is consensus that a front will slip into the region from the northeast returning us to a drier than normal pattern to finish the week. Temperature will remain closer to seasonal normals for the entire extended range. .Marine... Light west to northwest winds will continue through the weekend and then swing around to the east and increase to just below cautionary levels early next week. Seas will generally be 2 feet or less. .Fire Weather... Red Flag conditions are not expected through at least this weekend. .Hydrology... Very little rainfall is expected over the next few days and river levels will remain well below action stage. In fact, the Apalachicola River is forecast to remain in low flow levels into next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 75 99 75 100 77 / 20 30 20 30 20 Panama City 79 95 80 95 81 / 20 30 20 30 10 Dothan 75 98 75 101 76 / 10 20 10 20 10 Albany 75 100 75 101 77 / 10 10 10 20 20 Valdosta 73 100 74 99 75 / 20 20 20 30 20 Cross City 74 97 75 97 76 / 20 20 20 30 20 Apalachicola 78 97 79 94 80 / 20 20 20 30 10
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Saturday for all zones. GA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for all zones. AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for all zones. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...LAMERS SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...HARRIGAN AVIATION...DVD MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN

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