Area Forecast Discussion
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281 FXUS62 KTAE 010052 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 852 PM EDT Sun Aug 31 2014 .Near Term [Through Tonight]...
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A similar convective pattern to yesterday afternoon presented itself once again this afternoon. With the lack of synoptic forcing, surface-based boundaries played the primary role in convective distribution. The afternoon started with convection firing along the Panhandle seabreeze front and along two distinct temperature/moisture gradients on either side of what was essentially a mesoscale high pressure wedge. Within a few hours of initiation showers and thunderstorms were driven primarily by storm-scale boundary interactions. The Big Bend and south-central Georgia are a few degrees cooler on the dewpoints this evening compared to yesterday, and this slightly drier airmass should preclude another round of robust convection like what occurred last night along the east coast seabreeze. However, it is still pretty juicy from Taylor and Lafayette counties southward, so expect ongoing convection down there to remain intact and move into the Gulf over the next few hours.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 00Z Tuesday]... Scattered SHRA/TSRA may linger until around 04z, mainly around KVLD. Elsewhere SHRA/TSRA will be more isolated. Outside of SHRA/TSRA, VFR conditions are expected until dawn, when periods of MVFR vis/cigs are possible at KVLD, KABY, and KVLD. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected by mid morning Monday. Isolated TSRA will develop Monday afternoon, but the PoP is only in the 20-30% range for most terminals.
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&& .Prev Discussion [236 PM EDT]...
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.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]... Upper level ridging will remain in place for the period. With weak flow and no large scale forcing, sea breeze processes will dominate bringing near normal chances of rain. PoPs will be in the 20-40 range with higher values to the east. With high pressure in place, max temps will be in the mid 90s and lows in the lower 70s. .Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]... The start of the period will be dominated by a ridge in place over the Southeast with normal chances of rain. Tropical moisture off the east coast of Florida will bring higher rain chances starting Thursday. Highs will be in the low 90s and lows will be in the low 70s. .Marine... Winds will be from the southeast at 5 to 10 knots. Wave heights will be 2 to 4 feet tonight becoming 1 to 3 feet for the rest of the period. Surf heights will generally be 1 to 2 feet with rip currents possible. .Fire Weather... Afternoon Relative humidities will remain above critical levels for the next several days with no fire weather concerns in the foreseeable future. .Hydrology... River levels will remain at their below normal levels into next week as widespread rainfall is not anticipated.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 73 94 73 94 72 / 20 30 20 40 20 Panama City 77 90 77 91 76 / 20 20 10 30 20 Dothan 71 95 72 95 72 / 20 20 10 30 20 Albany 72 96 72 95 72 / 30 20 20 40 20 Valdosta 72 94 71 94 70 / 30 40 20 40 20 Cross City 73 92 72 93 71 / 50 30 20 30 20 Apalachicola 76 90 76 90 75 / 20 20 10 30 20
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
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FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None.
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&& $$ NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN SHORT TERM...WESTON LONG TERM...WESTON AVIATION...FOURNIER MARINE...WESTON FIRE WEATHER...GOULD HYDROLOGY...GODSEY

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