Area Forecast Discussion
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173 FXUS62 KTAE 010742 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 342 AM EDT Fri Aug 1 2014 .Near Term [Through Today]...
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Rain chances will begin their increase to climatological means as we finally begin to modify the dry airmass that has been in place the majority of this week. Highest rain chances will be on the NE periphery of our CWA. A passing H5 shortwave moving east along an Eastern CONUS trof will aid in the development of showers and thunderstorms NE of a line from Valdosta to Albany. The PoP field reflects this with a 20-40% SW-NE gradient. These PoP numbers are slightly higher than the CAM guidance, but this is in line with the CAM performance yesterday in extreme NE regions of the CWA. .Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]... A combination of upper level support from an eastern U.S. mid/upper trough will combine with a weak front, and disturbed seabreeze circulations to yield near, to slightly above average rain chances through the weekend. Afternoon highs will be near average (lower 90s) each afternoon, with overnight lows in the lower 70s. .Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]... The aforementioned positive-tilt 500 mb trough will continue to stretch from TN to the Northwest Gulf of Mexico, bringing moist southwest flow aloft over our forecast area through Tuesday. This, along with aforementioned remnant frontal system across our region will contribute to above-climo rain chances (50-60% PoPs). By Wednesday and Thursday, however, a deep layer ridge will build across the Gulf of Mexico and Gulf Coast, reducing (somewhat) the deep layer moisture and synoptic scale forcing. This will mark a return to a more typical late summertime pattern, with near-climo PoPs (30-40%) and thunderstorms driven primarily by the sea/land breeze circulation and other mesoscale boundaries. Temperatures will be near climatology, with highs in the lower to mid 90s and lows in the 70s.
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&& .Aviation...
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[Through 12Z Saturday] VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period but there is a chance of VCTS at ABY, and VLD late this afternoon. There are no major cig/vis concerns but any terminals that receive TS could briefly drop down to MVFR/IFR.
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&& .Marine...
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Low wind and sea conditions will prevail for the next several days under a weak surface pressure pattern.
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&& .Fire Weather...
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Summerlike conditions and increasing rain chances will result in no fire weather concerns over the next few days.
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&& .Hydrology...
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With our area rivers below bank full stage and seasonable rainfall totals in the forecast, no flooding is expected through the next week.
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&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
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Tallahassee 95 71 93 72 92 / 20 10 50 20 50 Panama City 89 75 89 75 88 / 20 10 40 30 40 Dothan 91 71 91 71 90 / 20 20 40 20 60 Albany 92 71 91 72 90 / 40 30 40 20 50 Valdosta 95 70 95 71 95 / 30 30 50 30 60 Cross City 93 69 93 71 92 / 20 10 30 30 40 Apalachicola 88 72 88 74 89 / 10 10 30 30 30
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&& .TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...GOULD/DOBBS SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN LONG TERM...FOURNIER AVIATION...GOULD/DOBBS MARINE...HARRIGAN FIRE WEATHER...GOULD/DOBBS HYDROLOGY...MOORE

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