Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
626
FXUS62 KTAE 291431
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1031 AM EDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 9 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a cold front across
North FL, extending west across the Gulf coastal waters about 30
to 60 miles offshore. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
continued along and ahead of this front, and there is still enough
boundary moisture and CAPE to support isolated storms as far north
as Dixie County. Otherwise, Precip Water values had fallen to 50%
below climo levels across central GA & AL, and this dry air will
continue advecting into our forecacast area this afternoon. Highs
will still be in the lower to mid 90s, but the lower humidity
will make it feel more comfortable than the hot and muggy conditions
of the past few days.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Wednesday]...A rare period (for summertime along the
Gulf Coast) with no thunderstorms is expected through at least
Wednesday. VFR conditions are also expected. Winds will be N to NW
5 to 10 KT today, and 5 KT or less overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion [418 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...

Extremely dry air for this time of year will continue tonight,
with dewpoints dropping into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. This
dry air will allow low temperatures to fall into the lower to
middle 60s over much of the interior both tonight and Wednesday
night, with the potential for some record or near record low
temperatures to be set. High temps will still be on the hot side
with plenty of sunshine and almost no chance for a shower or
storm, but with dewpoints likely to be at least as low as the mid
to upper 50s, Heat Indices won`t be any higher than the current
temperature (and possibly even a degree or 2 lower in some cases).


.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Monday]...

There will be continued amplification of the meridional upper level
flow as a strong high remains entrenched across the western CONUS
with a deep trough across the east. This pattern may finally begin
to weaken into early next week. In the meantime our area will remain
at the base of the upper level trough under broad cyclonic flow
aloft. Any subtle disturbances moving through the trough will help
enhance diurnal convection.

Another reinforcing surface boundary will sag across the southeast
U.S. by Friday with an east-west surface trough setting up along the
Gulf coast. This will be the focus for increased convection as we
move into the weekend and moisture gradually returns to the area.
Friday will be the transition day from dry to increasing moisture
with the weekend and early next week looking unsettled with high
rain chances. Overnight lows will return to normals in the 70s.
Daytime high temperatures will be somewhat suppressed compared to
last week with an increase in convection, with readings in the upper
80s and lower 90s.


.Marine...

Winds and seas have remained a bit higher than originally forecast
by the bulk of the numerical models as the cold front approaches the
coastal waters early this morning. Therefore, will keep the
cautionary headline in effect for this morning. By this afternoon,
much lighter offshore winds and lower seas are expected, and these
more typical summertime conditions should continue for the remainder
of the period.


.Fire Weather...

Drier conditions will move in today in the wake of a front and
continue through Thursday, with minimum relative humidity values
dropping into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Red flag conditions are
possible if conditions get drier than anticipated but currently do
not look likely.


.Hydrology...

Flooding is not expected for the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   94  65  94  65  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Panama City   91  72  91  72  90 /  10   0   0   0  10
Dothan        91  63  90  64  93 /  10   0   0  10  10
Albany        92  64  92  66  94 /  10   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      93  64  95  67  95 /  10   0   0  10  10
Cross City    94  67  94  66  94 /  20   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  92  72  91  72  89 /  10   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...DVD







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.