Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 231504
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1104 AM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 12Z Tallahassee sounding revealed a very shallow inversion
layer around only 800 ft AGL. This shallow inversion has mixed out
quickly, which allowed the TLH temperature to increase from 43 to
63 (20 degree increase) in just two hours between 8 AM and 10 AM.
However, a stronger frontal inversion aloft should limit how warm
the temperatures can get today, despite sunny skies. Model
consensus is in the mid-upper 70s for highs, and that is what we
are forecasting as well. There were very few changes from the
inherited forecast.

&&

.Prev Discussion [253 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

A northern stream shortwave currently over the Northern Plains
will dive into and through the Southeast Friday through Saturday.
With a large pool of dry air sprawling across the eastern third of
the country through the central Gulf, and a very progressive
wave, there won`t be nearly enough return flow to supply any
deep layer moisture to the system as it moves into our region.
Further, low-level flow will remain northerly around high pressure
which will hardly be affected by the passing shortwave. In short,
Friday and Saturday will remain dry with highs near seasonal
averages, and lows around 10 degrees below average.


.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

As the trough exits east of the area, the flow across the CONUS will
become more zonal. Some weak upper ridging will work eastward across
the Gulf Coast and FL through the period with the next long wave
trough just starting to deepen across the Plains on Wednesday. This
means temps will warm once again with 80s for highs and 50s for
lows. It will remain dry with slight chance PoPs only working their
way back into the forecast by Tuesday night and Wednesday. It should
be noted that the 12Z ECMWF now takes the remnant of TD 9 from
the northwest Caribbean Sea and lifts it northward into the
Central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday. The 06Z GFS was doing
something similar with an even stronger system, but the latest
version has backed off. Until we see some run-to-run consistency
in the models, we will not give too much regard to this scenario.


.Aviation...
[Through 12Z Friday]

VFR conditions and light northeasterly winds will prevail through
the forecast period.


.Marine...

Cautionary level winds will prevail through today, before a
gradual weakening through the weekend as the calm center of high
pressure moves nearer. Winds will veer southeasterly and increase
once again early next week. No rain is expected through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...

Humidity values will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s today and
Friday across the area. However, with light winds, and ERC values
forecast to remain below 37, no Red Flag conditions are expected at
this time.


.Hydrology...

Dry conditions will continue through at least mid-week next week,
with no hydrological issue to report.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  44  79  45  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   75  53  78  54  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        74  46  78  47  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        74  45  79  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      75  44  78  46  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    78  45  80  46  80 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  75  53  77  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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