Area Forecast Discussion
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979
FXUS62 KTAE 262046
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
346 PM EST Wed Nov 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

High pressure off the South Texas coast will shift eastward tonight
with a west-east oriented ridge axis extending across the Florida
Peninsula. While for a time, this may allow for surface winds to go
calm, a clipper moving through the Tennessee Valley will tighten the
pressure gradient across the region after midnight and will likely
result in an increase in surface winds to between 5 and 10 mph. This
will limit optimal radiational cooling conditions. With that in
mind, it`s odd to see such a split in the guidance for a near term
forecast with the MET in the lower 30s and the MAV closer to 40
across the area given similar mass fields. The pattern suggests a
warmer solution is the more likely outcome, thus indicated upper
30s across much of the area. By daybreak the dry cold front with the
clipper will be passing through the forecast area.


.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

The aforementioned cold front will be southeast of our forecast
area by late Thursday morning. Despite ample sun, high
temperatures will be below average (mid 50s north, lower 60s
south). Because the area of high pressure (at the surface) will
still be northwest of our region Thursday night & Friday, winds
may not be completely calm. This should keep low temperatures just
above freezing (around 33 F) in FL and much of south GA, but a
light freeze appears likely around Dothan and Albany. Highs will
remain below average Friday (mid to upper 50s). As the surface
ridge translates farther east Friday morning, a light freeze will
be possible across the eastern half of the forecast area,
especially from Tallahassee to Cross City.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement in building a deep layer ridge
over the Southeast, but for a weak short wave trough around mid week
next week. This means generally fair and mild weather, with highs in
the mid 60s Saturday, then lower 70s after. Lows will be in the
40s.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the period. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 to 10
knots.

&&

.Marine...

Winds and seas were just below advisory levels offshore this
afternoon, but are expected to increase to marginal advisory
levels late tonight. While the strongest winds (and highest seas)
will be offshore, the 40% chance line of getting 20 KT is within
the nearshore waters, so we will just issue a small craft advisory
for our entire coastal waters beginning this afternoon. Exercise
caution conditions will persist through early Friday, followed by
a gradual reduction in winds & seas.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Although dry air will continue to overspread the region in the wake
of a cold front, a combination of cool afternoon high temperatures
and dewpoints higher than with our last cold front will preclude any
critically low relative humidity values. However, breezy transport
winds will increase dispersion indices to marginally high levels on
Thursday.

&&

.Hydrology...

The Ochlockonee River and Little River (GA) continues to rise and
portions of these basins will likely reach action stages over the
weekend. Further down into the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River,
minor rises will continue into next week, though crests will be
well below action stage. From the Flint River westward to the
Choctawhatchee, most of the river points have crested or will in the
next 24 hours, again well below action stages. With no significant
rain expected for the next week, no additional river issues are
anticipated in the near future.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   38  60  33  58  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   46  59  39  56  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        38  56  32  55  35 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        38  57  31  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      39  59  33  56  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    39  63  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  45  61  39  57  43 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM EST this evening for Coastal
     Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Thursday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY







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