Area Forecast Discussion
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689
FXUS62 KTAE 300023
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
823 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The 6 pm EDT regional surface analysis showed a 1010 mb low just
off the FL Panhandle coast. This low was associated with a fairly
well-defined swirl in the low cloud and radar reflectivity
imagery, and was translating eastward along a surface trough that
extended east across north FL. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed a trough over our forecast area. Dry sinking air aloft was
slowly filtering into the western portions of our forecast area,
however (based on layer pwat imagery from the cira website) most
of this drying was confined to the upper troposphere. We expect
the rain to gradually taper off from west to east based on recent
satellite/radar trends, and the latest consensus of NWP guidance.
(Thus we let the Flash Flood Watch expire at 8 pm EDT). However,
given the near-saturated lower-mid troposphere, we expect plenty
of cloud cover and occasional drizzle to persist overnight.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Wednesday] The heaviest SHRA had cleared the
terminals, but occasional light SHRA and/or drizzle will continue
overnight, reducing Vis to MVFR at times. We expect MVFR cigs to
develop area wide by 6z, followed by IFR cigs between 6z and 15z.
Cigs will gradually lift to MVFR levels by late morning or early
Tuesday afternoon, eventually scattering out mid to late
afternoon. Any SHRA/TSRA will be isolated Tuesday.

&&

.Prev Discussion [255 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...

After the main area of rainfall out ahead of the weakening shortwave
just off to our west gradually winds down tonight, PoPs will be
significantly reduced for both Tuesday and Wednesday, as weak upper
level ridging begins to become established over the northern Gulf
Coast. However, with PWATs still expected to remain unusually high
for this time of year, especially further to the south and east
across the CWA, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be
possible each day, especially over our FL zones. PoPs will range
from silent 10s over most of SE AL and SW and SC GA, to 20 to 30%
over most of N FL. The lone exception will be the extreme SE Big
Bend (Dixie county), where 40% chances are still expected. With the
lower PoPs, upper ridging, and more daytime insolation, a gradual
warming trend is expected during the next couple of days, with
widespread high temps in the middle 80s on Tuesday, and upper 80s to
around 90 on Wednesday. Lows on Tuesday night will be in the middle
to upper 60s.


.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...

Very little has changed with regards to the extended fcst, as the
period will begin with very warm and humid conditions on Thursday
and Friday, as weak upper level ridging will nose northward from the
Gulf of Mexico. Along with the well above climo temps and dewpoints
will be increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. This
activity will precede the strongest cold front of the season thus
far, with good agreement among the Global Models that it will pass
through the CWA on Friday night and Saturday morning. This cold front
is still expected to bring a true taste of fall weather to the
region for the upcoming weekend into at least early next week. Low
temps on Sunday and Monday mornings will at least drop into the
lower to middle 50s over much of the interior, with the ECMWF MOS
now indicating the possibility of some lows dipping into the 40s
across the northern portion of the Tri-State area. With plenty of
daytime insolation, however, high temps are only expected to be a
few degrees below climo at this time for the end of the period, with
maximum afternoon readings generally in the upper 70s to the lower
80s.


.Marine...

Once the remaining widespread convection exits our Coastal Waters
tonight, the resulting very weak surface pressure pattern will keep
winds and seas quite low through Thursday night. By Friday, winds
and seas will increase out of the southwest in advance of the next
cold front, with near cautionary conditions possible out of the
northwest behind this front on Friday night into Saturday.


.Fire Weather...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next few
days.


.Hydrology...

With the rainfall event now winding down, and only very isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall having been observed over the past couple
of days, no significant rises are expected on our area rivers and
streams.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   69  85  69  89  71 /  40  20  20  30  20
Panama City   71  84  72  87  74 /  40  20  10  20  10
Dothan        66  85  66  89  68 /  30  10  10  10  10
Albany        67  85  66  89  69 /  30  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      67  85  67  89  68 /  50  20  10  20  20
Cross City    71  85  69  88  68 /  80  40  20  40  20
Apalachicola  71  83  73  85  74 /  70  30  20  30  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...GOULD







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