Area Forecast Discussion
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227
FXUS62 KTAE 252124
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
424 PM EST Sun Jan 25 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

A potent shortwave currently extending across the Missouri and Lower
Mississippi Valley regions will dive into the southeastern states
tonight further amplifying the long wave trough along the eastern
seaboard. The associated cold front will push from northwest to
southeast across the Tri-state area overnight. This system will
bring extensive cloud cover along with a slight to low end chance
for light rain over the Big Bend and Valdosta region. Due to the
cloud cover and northwest winds around 10 mph, min temps won`t
be as cold as this mornings lows. Temps by daybreak will be around
40 degrees for northern zones and lower to mid 40s south.


.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

By Monday morning, a cold front will be just downstream of the CWA.
This means cool, dry northerly winds at the sfc and wrap around
moisture lingering in the mid/upper levels. Skies will clear out by
Monday afternoon for the southern half of the CWA. Clouds will
linger until the evening hours for the AL and GA counties. Winds
will be gusty in the afternoon hours (up to 25 mph). Highs will be
in the mid to upper 50s on Monday. Northerly winds will continue for
the rest of this forecast period due to high pressure over the
Midwest. Highs on Tuesday will be in the low 60s. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 30s.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

Wednesday and Thursday will be high pressure over the Southeast.
Thursday night into Friday morning a cold front will move
through bringing a slight chance of rain. Friday afternoon/evening
high pressure will build in from the northwest. By Sunday, a
developing Gulf Low will bring clouds and a slight chance of rain.
Highs will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s as pressure systems
come and go. Lows will range from the mid 30s to the upper 40s as
cloud cover varies.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Monday]
VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the period.
Winds will be gusty this afternoon and will decrease after sunset.

&&

.Marine...

A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for tonight and tomorrow.
Southwesterly winds will shift to northwesterly by Monday morning.
Sustained winds will likely reach 25 knots with gusts up to 40 knots
possible briefly in the outer waters. By Tuesday morning, winds will
be moderate and northerly winds, but may exceed 20 knots again
Tuesday afternoon and evening. By Wednesday morning winds will
become light.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Even though afternoon relative humidities will
remain fairly low throughout much of the upcoming week, conditions
will not yet become favorable enough for any Red Flag concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

While many area rivers have risen due to Friday`s rain, only the
Aucilla River at Lamont is forecast to reach flood stage in the next
few days. It will reach minor flood stage this evening and crest at
54.9 feet on Tuesday. Within the next week, more minor flooding will
be possible along the St. Marks, Ochlockonee, and Kinchafoonee
rivers, where rises are forecast to be slower.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   43  57  37  64  38 /  20   0   0   0   0
Panama City   48  57  42  63  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        41  54  36  61  36 /  10  10   0   0   0
Albany        41  55  35  61  35 /  10  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  57  37  63  37 /  20   0   0   0   0
Cross City    44  59  37  64  40 /  40  20   0   0   0
Apalachicola  48  57  41  63  43 /  20   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Surf Advisory from 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening to 7
     AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf.

     RIP CURRENT RISK until 10 PM EST /9 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Tuesday
     for Apalachee Bay-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for Coastal waters
     From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL out to 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60
     NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BARRY
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WESTON






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