Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 160152

852 PM EST Sat Nov 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Very few changes made to the inherited forecast, as it largely
seemed on track. Low-level clouds will be on the increase
overnight in the eastern half of the area with E-SE flow, and that
should help keep temperatures milder in those areas. Temperatures
were nudged down slightly in the northwest third of our area
where clear skies are most likely - into the 36-39 degree range.



[Through 00Z Monday] Stratus should build in overnight from the
east into VLD, TLH, and possibly ABY. CIGS would likely be in the
MVFR range. The stratus will scatter out tomorrow morning with VFR
conditions expected through 00Z in the evening.


.Prev Discussion [339 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Temperatures will moderate on Sunday as onshore flow increases
ahead of an approaching cold front. Expect to see high
temperatures range from the upper 60s to lower 70s across the

Clouds and deep moisture will increase quickly late Sunday into
Sunday night as low pressure develops along the central Gulf Coast
ahead of a strong shortwave digging into the Southern Plains.
While a large area of rain is expected to develop along and ahead
of the front, uncertainty remains concerning the potential for a
few strong to severe storms along the Gulf Coast Monday morning.
Kinematically, the shear is forecast to be sufficient with deep
layer shear of 50-60kt and low-level shear of at least 30kt. The
main question will be the recovery of the low-level airmass from
its current cool and rather dry state. All of the available
guidance agrees that there will be a narrow band of surface-based
instability near the Gulf Coast Monday morning as dewpoints
recover into the mid 60s. The available convection-allowing
guidance is a bit more bullish with the instability, indicating
1000-1500j/kg of CAPE generally along and south of I-10. This
instability coupled with the expected shear could would certainly
support a few strong to severe storms along and ahead of the cold
front. Will need to continue to monitor this situation through the

The front will cross the forecast area during the day on Monday,
with the slower timing of the ECMWF/NAM/Canadian preferred over
the faster GFS. Precip should end from west to east by late
afternoon/evening with much colder air moving into the region
behind the front on northwesterly winds. Temperatures by Tuesday
morning will range from the upper 20s in the northwest to the
upper 30s in the southeastern Big Bend.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Arctic high pressure will plunge towards the Gulf coast on Tuesday
behind the exiting cold front. Temperatures will remain well below
normal through at least Thursday. Highs on Tuesday will likely
only reach the 40s to lower 50s, warming to the lower to mid 50s
on Wednesday and the upper 50s to lower 60s on Thursday.

Overnight lows will be 20 to 25 degrees below normal Wednesday and
Thursday mornings as the center of the high pressure becomes
ideally situated over the forecast area for strong radiational
cooling. The current forecast has lows in the lower to mid 20s
(near or below current records) away from the coast Wednesday
morning. Even these values may be a bit warm, with some guidance
calling for even lower values. Thursday morning lows may be a bit
warming with values in the upper 20s to around 30.

A slow warmup should begin by late in the week as the airmass
modifies and allows temperatures to approach normal values once

Easterly winds tonight and early Sunday will become southeasterly
and then southerly Sunday night while increasing to exercise
caution levels. Advisory level conditions are expected on Monday
just ahead of a strong cold front as well as behind the front as
winds shift to the northwest. Strong offshore flow will continue
into Tuesday before diminishing into Wednesday as high pressure
builds over the waters.

.Fire Weather...
Relatively high RH is expected the next couple days with a
wetting rain expected on Monday. Dry air will arrive behind the
cold front by Tuesday and linger through the middle of the week.
Red flag conditions may be possible behind the front, but are far
from certain at this point.

Sunday night and monday rainfall amounts will generally be


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  72  60  73  35 /  10  10  30  80  10
Panama City   48  70  63  69  36 /   0  10  60  80  10
Dothan        38  68  59  64  29 /   0  10  70  80  10
Albany        40  70  58  68  31 /  10  10  50  80  20
Valdosta      44  72  57  73  35 /  10  10  20  80  50
Cross City    48  76  58  75  39 /  10  10  10  70  50
Apalachicola  50  68  64  74  38 /  10  10  40  80  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until Midnight EST tonight for Coastal




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