Area Forecast Discussion
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136
FXUS62 KTAE 170123
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
923 PM EDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

As of 01Z, the convective activity over our area has diminished
entirely as drier air begins to push in from the northwest behind
a cold front. This trend will continue overnight, setting up dry
weather, clear skies, and cooler-than-normal temperatures. This
was already reflected well in the inherited forecast, so very few
changes were made other than to indicate a quicker end to rainfall
in the evening in the southeast part of our area.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Friday] A rare mid summer treat is in store for the
local aviation community. After a few, brief, lingering SHRA/TSRA
this evening (mainly around KTLH & KVLD), the rest of the period
will be completely rain-free. Other than a brief period of MVFR VIS
at KVLD around dawn Thursday, generally unrestricted VIS and
unlimited CIGS are expected into Thursday night. Winds will be light
(3-8 KT) from the NW or N.

&&

.Prev Discussion [533 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...
In the wake of the front tonight into Thursday morning, drier and
slightly cooler conditions will prevail through the remainder of the
week. Expect afternoon highs to peak in the lower 90s each
afternoon, with overnight lows dipping as low as the middle 60s on
Thursday night.


.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...
Saturday morning a low pressure system will move into the region,
bringing plenty of clouds and increasing rain chances. The sfc low
will move out by Monday morning but the cold front will likely stall
out over the southeast states supported by an upper level trough.
This upper level trough will linger throughout the remainder of the
forecast period increasing the chance for showers and thunderstorms.
Expect lows in the lower 70s and highs around 90.


.Marine...
A weak pressure pattern will dominate our Gulf waters beginning
tonight and lasting into next week. This will preclude any headline
conditions through at least mid-week next week. Dry conditions will
begin tomorrow and last through the remainder of the week when
typical summertime showers and storms return to start the weekend.


.Fire Weather...
Though we will have a couple of unseasonably dry days to finish
the week, hazardous RH levels are not expected to be reached.
Thus, there are no fire weather concerns into next week.


.Hydrology...
Some areas could see up to an inch of rain today. The rest of the
work week should be dry with rain likely returning this weekend.
Current river levels are below flood stage and this is expected to
continue.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   67  93  66  95  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   72  89  72  91  75 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        64  91  66  93  73 /   0   0   0  10  10
Albany        65  92  66  94  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
Valdosta      67  92  67  93  70 /  10   0   0  10  10
Cross City    70  92  69  93  69 /  30   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  72  87  70  89  73 /  10   0   0  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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