Area Forecast Discussion
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826
FXUS62 KTAE 210636
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
236 AM EDT Thu Aug 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Very hot weather is tap for today as a strong ridge of high pressure
builds over the central Gulf Coast. Light northerly low-level flow
will aid in keeping the sea-breeze at bay, and allow temperatures to
approach triple digits this afternoon. With dewpoints remaining in
the 70s through the afternoon, heat index values will rise above 105
degrees, with some areas near the coast approaching 110 degrees.
With these values, will keep the current Heat Advisory in place
unchanged.

The upper ridge and northerly flow regime will significantly inhibit
much in the way of afternoon convection. Will keep 20 percent in
place over land in case an isolated storm or two does manage to
develop.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Saturday]...

Very hot and much drier than normal conditions will continue with
the deep layer ridging in place. High temperatures will be at
record or near record levels both Friday and Saturday afternoon.
Max temps are expected to reach or exceed 100 degrees at most
inland areas with heat indices in the 105-110 range throughout the
Tri-state region. Thus, the Heat Advisory will continue at least
through the short term period. Overnight lows will be warm in the
mid 70s. Rain chances will be 20% or less.

.Long Term [Saturday Night Through Thursday]...

It will continue to be hot and relatively dry over the coming
weekend as ridging persists and builds inland. With this fairly long
stretch of hot days and mild nights Heat Advisories are again
likely, although heat indices will become more dependent upon
afternoon cloudiness as we move into the early part of the week. An
east-west surface trough will begin to settle south across the
region late in the weekend into early next week as an upper level
trough digs southward across the western Atlantic on the front side
of the strong upper ridge. This may increase precipitation chances
early in the week as well as cloud cover which would suppress
daytime heating somewhat. The main story will be what happens
midweek into the latter part of next week with the potential
development of a tropical system moving into the Gulf. Global
models are not in agreement with each other, nor are they showing
much run-to-run consistency at this time, but this will be
monitored carefully in the next several days.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Friday] Outside of some brief MVFR vsby at KVLD around
sunrise, VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all terminals
today. Little in the way of thunderstorms are anticipated this
afternoon. Winds will be light.

&&

.Marine...

Light west to northwest winds will continue through the weekend
and then swing around to the east early next week. Seas will be 2
feet or less.

&&

.Fire Weather...

Despite the very hot temperatures today and Friday, dewpoints will
remain high enough to keep humidity values above critical levels.
Red Flag conditions are not expected at this time.

&&

.Hydrology...

The next few days will be drier with no significant rain expected.
With all area rivers below action stage, no flooding is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   99  75 100  76 100 /  20  10  20  10  20
Panama City   95  78  97  79  97 /  20  10  20  10  20
Dothan        98  76  99  75 101 /  20  10  20  10  20
Albany       100  75 101  75 101 /  20  10  20  10  20
Valdosta      99  74 100  74 101 /  20  10  20  10  20
Cross City    97  75  98  76  98 /  20  10  20  10  20
Apalachicola  95  77  95  78  94 /  10  10  20  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Heat Advisory from Noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ today to 8 PM EDT /7 PM
     CDT/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Coastal
     Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland
     Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland Wakulla-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-Madison-South Walton-
     Washington.

GA...Heat Advisory from Noon today to 8 PM EDT Saturday for Baker-Ben
     Hill-Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-
     Dougherty-Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-
     Mitchell-Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-
     Turner-Worth.

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Saturday for
     Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...CAMP
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...HOLLINGSWORTH
AVIATION...CAMP
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...CAMP
HYDROLOGY...WESTON




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