Area Forecast Discussion
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102
FXUS62 KTAE 131905
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
305 PM EDT Sat Sep 13 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed in the northwest
half of our forecast area early this afternoon as expected,
along and just ahead of a stalled front. Slow storm motions,
storm-scale interactions, and the moist environment with PWATs
around 2" should contribute to a risk of locally heavy rain and
isolated flash flooding. Current PoPs of 60-70% seem reasonable
and we expect fairly widespread convective activity to begin to
consolidate into some larger clusters between 21-00Z, persisting
into the 00-04Z timeframe. The convection-allowing models (CAM)
continue to be in good agreement regarding convective evolution
over the next 6-12 hours, and we followed those trends closely in
the forecast. They continue to indicate that thunderstorms should
consolidate into the western Florida Panhandle in the hours around
and just after sunset. An expanding cold pool in the northwest
part of our area could enable some lows from the upper 60s to
around 70 in those areas tonight, while low-mid 70s are expected
elsewhere.

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
Deep moisture will linger across the area through the short term
with precipitable water values near to slightly above 2 inches at
times. A weak boundary will also be bisecting the northern part of
the area in an east-west fashion. These factors would argue for
fairly high PoPs on Sunday and Monday. However, the ensemble of CAM
guidance is quite dry for Sunday afternoon, which lowers confidence
a bit. Given the overall large scale pattern, feel the CAM ensemble
is a little too dry and stayed with the inherited 40-50% PoPs from
the previous forecast. Daytime highs will be mostly in the lower
90s with lows in the low to mid 70s.

.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
Deep moisture will continue to be present across the area with a
stalled frontal boundary also in the vicinity. These ingredients
point to an unsettled period coming up with an above average chance
of rain on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some locally heavy rain is
possible given the weak boundary and deep tropical moisture
expected to be in place. A drying trend is possible for most of
the area with the exception of the southeast big bend near the end
of the week as the deepest moisture may get pushed to the south.
Daytime highs are expected to be near to slightly below normal
through most of the week.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Sunday] Numerous showers and storms should develop
roughly along and northwest of a line from ECP to ABY - or
affecting those two terminals along with DHN this afternoon and
evening. IFR VIS will be possible in some of the thunderstorms.
Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the period.
Showers and storms are much less likely at TLH and VLD.

&&

.Marine...
Winds and seas will be slightly elevated this weekend as a weak
tropical disturbance passes well to the south of the coastal
waters. For the early and middle part of next week, a weak
surface pressure pattern will return to the marine area, with
typically low summertime winds and seas expected. By the end of
the week, easterly winds may increase as high pressure builds over
the northeast states and the pressure gradient tightens.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Relative humidity will remain above 40 percent through next week,
so no red flag conditions will occur.

&&

.Hydrology...
Some locally heavy rainfall in a short period of time is possible
through this evening with some of the slow moving storms in the
area, but widespread heavy amounts are not likely. Isolated
instances of flooding could occur, especially if one of the slow
moving storms affects an urban area. By the middle of the week, a
better chance of more widespread rain is expected, some of which
could be occasionally heavy.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   73  92  72  91  72 /  30  40  20  50  30
Panama City   76  90  75  90  75 /  60  40  20  50  40
Dothan        70  91  72  91  71 /  60  50  30  50  30
Albany        72  92  72  91  71 /  50  50  30  50  30
Valdosta      72  92  71  91  71 /  30  40  30  50  30
Cross City    71  92  71  91  71 /  40  40  20  50  30
Apalachicola  76  89  75  89  75 /  20  40  20  40  40

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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