Area Forecast Discussion
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789
FXUS62 KTAE 231917
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
317 PM EDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Deep layer ridging is leading to another dry, sunny day. In the
wake of a cold front, temperatures are slightly below normal
today and that should continue into tonight. Widespread lows in
the mid 40s are expected, except right along the Gulf coast and in
the city of Tallahassee. Some high cirrus may arrive later
tonight, but that should not impact temperatures too much.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
Surface high pressure will remain in the vicinity of the northwest
Gulf Coast and will keep our local weather rain-free through the
period. An upper level trough will swing across the area on Friday,
but will only be attended by some high clouds. A gradually
moderating trend in temperatures is expected through the period.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
An upper level ridge, with it axis over the Mississippi Valley at
the start of the period, will drift east of the area by Monday. At
that point, we will see some amplification of the ridge as an
upstream trough digs into the central U.S. Eventually, this trough
will slide eastward. However, there are differences among the models
in the timing of this eastward advance. Surface high pressure over
the Central Gulf Coast on Sunday will move off the Southeast U.S.
coast early next work week. The position of the deep layer ridging
just to our east will keep PoPs at a minimum. Slight chance PoPs do
not return return to the forecast until Wednesday and Thursday. A
front will be approaching from the northwest on Thursday. However,
the 12Z run of the GFS is now much less progressive than earlier
runs to bring it through the forecast area. The consensus of the
current suite of model guidance keeps any weak tropical lows
confined to the Caribbean Sea or Bay of Campeche during this period.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday] Clear skies (VFR conditions) and light winds
should prevail through the TAF period. Some high cirrus may arrive
later tonight, but that will not impact the flight category.

&&

.Marine...
Winds have dropped below exercise caution thresholds, but will
remain around 15 knots across the offshore legs into this evening.
A gradual weakening trend in the offshore winds is expected through
the weekend high pressure moves closer to the forecast area. Winds
will then veer to southeasterly and increase once again early next
week. No rain is expected through the period.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Dry air will continue to hold across the Tri-State area through
Saturday, but it will not be quite dry enough to cause any Red
Flag concerns. For the remainder of the weekend and into next
week, a gradual moistening trend is expected with afternoon
relative humidities climbing back to above normal levels for this
time of year.

&&

.Hydrology...
Due to the ongoing dry spell, there are no hydrologic concerns
across the region.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   44  79  44  80  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   53  78  54  79  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        45  77  46  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        45  78  46  80  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      44  77  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    45  79  46  80  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  51  77  51  78  53 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...LAMERS
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...WOOL






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