Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 180738

338 AM EDT Fri Jul 18 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
A weak but dry ridge of high pressure will remain anchored over the
region today, giving us another hot, dry, and very unusual mid-July
day that will be just about free from any rain chances for the
second consecutive day. With surface dewpoints mixing out into the
upper 50s to the middle 60s and total PWATs of around 1 inch it will
make it difficult just to form a small CU field along the sea breeze
front in fact! However, big changes are on the way as a very
significant pattern shift will bring a large, slow moving, and
moisture filled trof our way just in time to spoil the upcoming
weekend for those who do not want rain for their outdoor plans. For
today, however, the only evidence of this approaching system will be
increasing upper level cloudiness from west to east as the day wears
on, with some possible mid-level clouds across western portions of
the CWA before the day is through. Nevertheless, we still expect
enough filtered sunshine for afternoon high temps to reach the
middle 90s in most areas away from the coast.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
With a mid/upper level trough moving over the Southeast throughout
the short term period, expect rain chances to be on the increase
through the weekend. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement
with rain chances in the 60 to 70 percent range for Saturday as
the leading edge of the disturbance moves into the region. Expect
an earlier start to convection, which will limit high temperatures
to only around 90 on Saturday. By Sunday, even though the main
disturbance will be moving into the Carolinas, the overall East
Coast trough will remain in place and with plenty of deep layer
moisture available expect good coverage of showers and storms by
afternoon. Storm activity on Sunday should be a little more
dirunally driven, but still enough convection should take place to
keep temperatures in the lower 90s in the afternoon. Overnight
lows throughout the short term period will return to typical
levels for July.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The long term period will be fairly active for our CWA as long wave
troughing continues its grip on the Eastern CONUS with ridging in
the West. This typically features rain chances that are above
climatology for our CWA so went with blend of higher HPC guidance
with GFS/Euro which yields rain chances near 70 percent each day in
the period. With higher chances for rain, temperatures are expected
to be below climatology as well with most locations likely reaching
AOB 90.


[Through 06Z Saturday]
VFR conditions will prevail at the Taf sites for most of the
period as the dry air mass behind the rare mid-July Cold Front
continues to hold on. A brief period of MVFR Vis will be possible
at VLD early this morning, but should dissipate very quickly if it
does form. Otherwise. upper level clouds will be on the increase,
and there may be some chance for a shower or tstm with MVFR Vis or
Cigs at DHN and ECP by the very end of the period. However,
believe this is still too early to mention in the official
aviation fcst.


A weak pressure pattern typical for the summer months will be in
place into next week. This will result in light winds and low seas
for the next several days.


.Fire Weather...
Today should be the last mostly dry day on the horizon in quite
sometime, as a trof of low pressure moves in from the west and
stalls in our vicinity. This will bring a return to elevated rain
chances and high relative humidities throughout the coming days.


Rain chances will increase through the weekend. Isolated rainfall
totals in excess of 2 to 4 inches are expected across the western
half of the forecast area with lesser amounts of 1 to 2 inches
through Sunday night. Rainfall amounts should not be widespread
enough to cause any river flooding, though some localized issues
in flood prone areas are possible.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   95  71  90  72  91 /   0  20  50  30  60
Panama City   88  75  86  74  88 /   0  30  60  30  40
Dothan        93  73  87  72  90 /   0  30  70  30  60
Albany        94  71  86  72  89 /   0  20  60  30  60
Valdosta      97  71  89  71  91 /   0  20  50  30  60
Cross City    92  71  92  72  90 /   0  10  40  30  40
Apalachicola  88  74  86  73  87 /   0  20  50  30  40


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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