Area Forecast Discussion
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474
FXUS62 KTAE 190228
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
928 PM EST Sun Jan 18 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Surface data over the last couple of hours shows that high
pressure is moving into the region and as of 02 UTC appears to be
centered about near Pensacola. As this high moves further eastward
overnight, expect winds to decrease further. With skies now
clear, expect near ideal radiational cooling conditions
overnight. Model guidance earlier this evening had trended cooler,
so it would not be surprising at all to see a few spots drop below
freezing by daybreak given that Tallahassee and Valdosta are already
around 40 degrees at 9 pm ET.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Tuesday]...With high pressure moving in, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period. Light southerly winds
are expected on Monday as the high moves east of the region.

&&

.Prev Discussion [317 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Monday Through Tuesday Night]...

With nearly zonal flow aloft and a generally weak Sfc pressure
pattern, the majority of the period should be quiet and feature a
continued moderating trend in temperatures. In fact, high temps on
Tuesday may reach or exceed 70 degrees over much of the interior,
after morning lows begin from the middle 30s to the lower 40s. The
only question mark at this point is will a weak disturbance passing
through on Tuesday night be able to produce a slight chance of rain
across parts of the region or not. At this time, went with 20
percent PoPs to the north and 20 percent to the south, with a small
gap of no weather in between. Regardless, any rain that does fall
over our region will be very light, with total accumulations of a
few hundredths of an inch or less.


.Long Term [Wednesday Through Sunday]...

After one more fair and mild day on Wednesday, a developing low
pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico combined with cool high
pressure off to the northwest may make for yet another period of
cold and wet conditions across the region for the end of the week.
At this time, however, it appears this system should clear the
region by next weekend with a likely return to fair and seasonable
conditions.


.Marine...

After the brief surge in winds and seas dies off across the coastal
waters late this afternoon, light winds and low seas should be the
rule through mid week. By the end of the week, however, a developing
low pressure system in the Gulf of Mexico will likely tighten the
pressure pattern significantly over the marine area, with headline
conditions likely making a return to the waters by late Thursday or
Friday.


.Fire Weather...

With dry air in place behind the cold front, RH values will approach
critical values on Monday. However, winds and ERC values will not be
sufficient to reach red flag conditions. Moisture will increase on
Tuesday.


.Hydrology...

Area rivers and streams should continue to slowly subside across the
HSA for the next several days, with no significant rainfall on the
horizon. The next chance for a widespread wetting rainfall across
the basins is not expected until the very end of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   32  69  35  70  48 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   39  65  46  68  52 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        35  65  41  68  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        33  66  38  68  46 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      35  68  36  70  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    33  69  34  72  47 /   0   0   0   0  20
Apalachicola  39  65  44  66  52 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GODSEY
SHORT TERM...GOULD
LONG TERM...GOULD
AVIATION...GODSEY
MARINE...GOULD
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...GOULD






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