Area Forecast Discussion
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372
FXUS62 KTAE 151900
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

After round 1 of shower and thunderstorm activity that blanketed
much of the Tri-State region, round 2 associated with a pre-
frontal trough is filling in across southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia this afternoon. Expect this line to move
southeast across most of the CWA, exiting into our Gulf waters
after sunset. Similar to this morning, another round of coastal
showers will develop after midnight and inch inland through the
morning.


.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...

A frontal boundary will slowly move into the Tri-State region
Wednesday, eventually pushing through all but our southeast Big
Bend counties by Thursday afternoon. Expect a fair amount of
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday,
primarily confined to an area south and east of a line from
Valdosta to Tallahassee. Though, a short lived shower will be
possible along the immediate front as it moves through the area.
The drier air will result in a couple cool nights, dipping as low
as the middle 60s across southeast Alabama Wednesday night, with
upper 60s everywhere by Thursday night. No rain is expected on
Thursday.


.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...

The drier air and zonal upper level flow will yield a couple dry
days in the extended range forecast before a weakening shortwave
approaches on Sunday and lingers over the Southeast through the
remainder of the forecast period. Expect below average rain
chances to increase to above average beginning Sunday and lasting
through at least Tuesday.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Wednesday]

VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. A rather
well developed line of storms will move southeast through the
region through the afternoon, possibly impacting all terminals
when all is said and done, though almost certainly ABY and DHN.
Another round of showers and storms will develop near the coast
late tonight and bring MVFR ceilings to impacted terminals (ECP
and TLH). VFR will return outside of storms tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.Marine...

A period of Cautionary level winds will will overspread the waters
tonight, into tomorrow as a frontal boundary approaches. By
Wednesday night, the Gulf will once again be dominated by light
winds and low seas into next week.

&&

.Fire Weather...

No concerns.

&&

.Hydrology...

The expected rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches on average through
tomorrow should not have any significant impact on area rivers and
streams. All water levels should remain below flood stage leading
into a few dry days to finish the week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  89  70  92  66 /  60  40  10  10  10
Panama City   78  89  73  90  72 /  50  40   0  10  10
Dothan        73  90  66  91  66 /  40  40   0  10  10
Albany        74  90  67  92  66 /  40  40   0   0  10
Valdosta      72  88  69  92  67 /  60  40  10  10  10
Cross City    74  88  73  92  70 /  70  70  20  10  10
Apalachicola  78  88  74  90  72 /  70  60  10  10  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN






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