Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 261607

1207 PM EDT Sat Jul 26 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Similar to the last two days, the forecast area remains sandwiched
between two upper level ridges with little in the way of synoptic
scale flow. This will make the sea breeze circulation the main
driver for convection once again today. One subtle change for today
is that the 1000-700 mb mean wind is expected to have more of a
westerly component instead of southwest like the last couple of
days. As a result showers and thunderstorms will form in the Florida
counties and move eastward. The Alabama and Georgia counties will be
drier than the past few days...thus afternoon highs will be warmer.

.Long Term [Monday Night Through Saturday]...
Model guidance continues to be in excellent agreement in the
amplification of the Eastern CONUS trough through the long term
period. As the trough deepens on Monday night into Tuesday,
expect a cold front to move through the forecast area by Tuesday
afternoon. While there are some slight differences on timing and
magnitude of the cooler and drier air behind this frontal
boundary, there is good agreement now that the front will clear to
the south. Dry conditions should be in place across the region
from Tuesday evening into Thursday. This interval will also
feature some cool overnight lows, possibly dipping into the lower
60s in the colder spots across Southern Alabama. Even in the
Florida Big Bend, temperatures Wednesday and Thursday mornings
should drop into the upper 60s or just a bit cooler. Records for
this period at Tallahassee are as follows:

July 30 - 67 (1927)
July 31 - 63 (1896)
Aug 1 - 64 (1993)

By Thursday afternoon, moisture will begin to increase once again
across the forecast area as another upper disturbance within the
main upper trough moves into the forecast area. Unsettled
conditions look to return Friday and into next weekend with rain
chances increasing considerably. While overnight lows will return
to climatological norms for early August, daytime temperatures
will still be below normal due to plenty of convective activity.


.Prev Discussion [252 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...
For Sunday, the forecast area will remain in a col region between
upper ridges to east and west, and a trough to the north. The
seabreeze will continue to provide the primary forcing. However,
with the low-level flow generally out of the west and a slight
decrease in deep layer moisture, expect coverage to be lower than
on Saturday. With less convection and clouds, temperatures will be
able to rise into the mid to upper 90s, especially across interior
areas. With dewpoints holding in the lower to mid 70s, this will
likely push apparent temperatures to near 105 Sunday afternoon.

By Monday, the eastern U.S. trough is forecast to amplify and
drive a cold front southward towards the Gulf Coast. Expect to see
convection focus along the front across central Alabama/Georgia
during the early to mid afternoon, with the activity pushing south
into Florida by late afternoon.

[Through 06Z Sunday] There is a possibility of brief and patchy
fog with MVFR vsbys after 09z at all sites. VFR will return
shortly after daybreak with scattered convection developing. VCTS
is included in all of the TAFs except for ABY and DHN as most of
the convection this afternoon is expected to be south of those
locations. TLH has the highest probability (around 50%) of seeing
convection today out of all of the TAF sites.

With the subtropical ridge stationed south of the waters, westerly
to southwesterly flow will continue through early next week. As a
front approaches the Gulf Coast early in the week, winds may
approach exercise caution levels Monday into Tuesday.

.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions are not expected over the next several days,
although high dispersion values are expected Sunday afternoon
across the inland Florida big bend.

The Shoal River at Mossy Head has reached bank full stage but is
not forecast to reach flood stage. All other area rivers are below
bank full stage. Thunderstorms could bring locally heavy rainfall
the next few days but widespread impacts are not expected.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  74  96  76  96 /  50  30  30  20  40
Panama City   89  78  91  79  90 /  40  20  40  20  30
Dothan        93  75  97  76  95 /  20  20  20  20  50
Albany        96  75  97  76  95 /  20  20  20  20  50
Valdosta      95  73  96  76  95 /  40  30  30  20  40
Cross City    91  73  94  74  93 /  40  20  50  20  20
Apalachicola  90  77  90  79  90 /  40  20  40  20  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 10 PM CDT this evening for Coastal




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