Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 151900
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
300 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2014
.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
After round 1 of shower and thunderstorm activity that blanketed
much of the Tri-State region, round 2 associated with a pre-
frontal trough is filling in across southeast Alabama and
southwest Georgia this afternoon. Expect this line to move
southeast across most of the CWA, exiting into our Gulf waters
after sunset. Similar to this morning, another round of coastal
showers will develop after midnight and inch inland through the
.Short Term [Wednesday Through Thursday Night]...
A frontal boundary will slowly move into the Tri-State region
Wednesday, eventually pushing through all but our southeast Big
Bend counties by Thursday afternoon. Expect a fair amount of
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front on Wednesday,
primarily confined to an area south and east of a line from
Valdosta to Tallahassee. Though, a short lived shower will be
possible along the immediate front as it moves through the area.
The drier air will result in a couple cool nights, dipping as low
as the middle 60s across southeast Alabama Wednesday night, with
upper 60s everywhere by Thursday night. No rain is expected on
.Long Term [Friday Through Tuesday]...
The drier air and zonal upper level flow will yield a couple dry
days in the extended range forecast before a weakening shortwave
approaches on Sunday and lingers over the Southeast through the
remainder of the forecast period. Expect below average rain
chances to increase to above average beginning Sunday and lasting
through at least Tuesday.
[Through 18Z Wednesday]
VFR conditions will prevail outside of thunderstorms. A rather
well developed line of storms will move southeast through the
region through the afternoon, possibly impacting all terminals
when all is said and done, though almost certainly ABY and DHN.
Another round of showers and storms will develop near the coast
late tonight and bring MVFR ceilings to impacted terminals (ECP
and TLH). VFR will return outside of storms tomorrow afternoon.
A period of Cautionary level winds will will overspread the waters
tonight, into tomorrow as a frontal boundary approaches. By
Wednesday night, the Gulf will once again be dominated by light
winds and low seas into next week.
The expected rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches on average through
tomorrow should not have any significant impact on area rivers and
streams. All water levels should remain below flood stage leading
into a few dry days to finish the week.
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Tallahassee 74 89 70 92 66 / 60 40 10 10 10
Panama City 78 89 73 90 72 / 50 40 0 10 10
Dothan 73 90 66 91 66 / 40 40 0 10 10
Albany 74 90 67 92 66 / 40 40 0 0 10
Valdosta 72 88 69 92 67 / 60 40 10 10 10
Cross City 74 88 73 92 70 / 70 70 20 10 10
Apalachicola 78 88 74 90 72 / 70 60 10 10 10