Area Forecast Discussion
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203
FXUS62 KTAE 210021
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
821 PM EDT FRI MAR 20 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
WE CONTINUE TO SEE SPLIT FLOW ACROSS NORTH AMERICA THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW AS IT SPINS NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA. DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EVIDENT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WAVY STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES. THIS FRONT AND THE SEA BREEZE FRONT COMBINED TO
TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY SHOWERS.
THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY DIMINISHING WITH THAT TREND EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS WIDESPREAD TONIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME AROUND. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIN TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY] IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. VISIBILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS LOW
AS LAST NIGHT, BUT IFR CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO
VFR DURING THE MID MORNING. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WILL BE LOW ENOUGH
ON SATURDAY TO ONLY MENTION THUNDER IN THE VICINITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [439 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA WILL OPEN UP AND MOVE EAST DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE REMNANT SHORT WAVE REACHING OUR FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DEEPEN OVER
TEXAS SATURDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. THERE
ARE STILL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK WITH THE
EURO GENERALLY FASTER THAN THE CONSENSUS IN BRINGING IT EASTWARD.
CONVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE DRIVEN BY THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE GULF COAST WITH SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM THE SEA BREEZE.
POPS WILL BE IN THE 20-40% RANGE. POPS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW APPROACHES. BY
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, POPS WILL RANGE FROM CATEGORICAL (80%)
NORTH TO CHANCE (30-40%) ALONG THE COAST. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES NORTH OF A DOTHAN TO
MOULTRIE LINE WHERE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER AND FREQUENT RAIN WILL KEEP
MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM [MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...
MONDAY`S POPS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANCE ONCE WE GET A BETTER HANDLE
ON THE TIMING OF THE LOW. FOR THE TIME BEING, POPS REFLECT THE LOW
CONTINUING TO IMPACT THE REGION WITH LIKELY POPS EAST DROPPING OFF
TO ABOUT 40% FROM PANAMA CITY WEST. A BRIEF LULL IN THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED AT UPPER
LEVELS AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD. THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEK INCREASING POPS ONCE
AGAIN.


.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND, RESULTING
IN A CONTINUATION OF RATHER LOW WINDS AND SEAS EVEN AS RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE AHEAD OF WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. BY MONDAY NIGHT, WINDS
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOST OF THE INCREASE WILL OCCUR DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.


.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND KEEP RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES HIGH.


.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MORE ORGANIZED
CHANCES OF RAIN BY SUNDAY. RAINFALL THROUGH THIS PERIOD SHOULD
AVERAGE BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES, WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER TOTALS NEARING
3 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND GEORGIA. THESE AMOUNTS WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW SOME RIVER POINTS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
GEORGIA TO APPROACH OR EXCEED ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   64  86  64  81  62 /  30  30  30  60  60
PANAMA CITY   66  76  64  75  64 /  20  20  20  40  60
DOTHAN        63  81  62  74  60 /  20  30  50  70  70
ALBANY        62  81  59  72  59 /  30  20  50  80  80
VALDOSTA      64  85  62  81  61 /  30  30  30  70  60
CROSS CITY    62  85  62  82  61 /  10  20  10  40  40
APALACHICOLA  66  78  65  77  65 /  10  10  20  30  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WOOL
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...WOOL
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...MCDERMOTT
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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