Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 190825

425 AM EDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

Challenging forecast for today with already one round of shower and
thunderstorm activity moving east of the region and regional radars
showing the next batch of storms developing south of Ala/Western Fla
Panhandle. Model guidance offers some reasonable consensus on areas
most likely to receive another round of storms today, but predawn
offshore convection often creates issues with the forecast later in
the day. Further, the extensive debris cloudiness already in place
will limit the degree of destabilization.

With all that being said, most of the model guidance is in good
agreement a weak disturbance will move just north of the region this
afternoon and provide enhancement for additional storm development.
This would seem to favor areas from the Florida Panhandle into
Southeast Alabama and Southwestern Georgia. Were this to occur, it
would be reasonable that downstream areas to the east would likely
have less storm coverage. So constructed today`s pops higher in the
west (80%) and lower in the east (40%-50%). With this much
convection, expect temperatures to struggle to get out of the upper
80s this afternoon.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Monday]...

Now that the unsettled weather has arrived, it will be in no hurry
to exit the region in the now generally stagnant upper level
pattern. Although complete washouts are not expected each day and
night over the next few days, the chances for showers and
thunderstorms will remain elevated both day and night as an upper
level low pressure system essentially parks over our area and does
little to move. This blocking pattern will be due in part to the
development of a very strong upper level ridge (near 600 dm) over
the Rocky Mountain States, where high temps in Denver, CO may reach
or exceed 100 degrees. High temps in our region will depend on the
amount of cloud cover and rainfall, with any areas that do not see
any/many breaks in the overcast remaining in the 80s. A few areas
that do see a couple hours of insolation could break the 90 degree
mark, but any mid 90s appear out of the question. Finally, although
this low pressure system appears to have weakened and the amount of
available deep layer moisture decreased from this point in time on
Saturday, will still have to keep an eye on Storm Total Rainfall for
some potential minor/nuisance flooding in any low lying and poor
drainage areas.

.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...

A wet pattern will be prevailing over our CWA through the long term
as we will be in the weakness between two large longwave ridges, one
over the Atlantic, and one over the Western CONUS. This weakness
will allow the area to be under the influence of deep layer
southerly flow which will give good rain chances for all parts of
the forecast region. Further adding to the weakness will be a cut
off upper low that the GFS and Euro indicate could drop down from
the mean 250mb flow Monday afternoon. As this rotates SW around the
ridge, it will further fortify our rain chances throughout the long
term especially Monday-Wednesday afternoons.


[Through 12Z Sunday]
VFR conditions early this morning will give way to at least MVFR
conditions with numerous to widespread thunderstorms by late
morning/early afternoon at ECP/DHN/ABY. Occasional IFR conditions
are possible in the stronger storms. Storms coverage should be more
scattered at TLH/VLD where VCTS groups were used. Expect sufficient
debris cloudiness to linger overnight into Sunday to prevent any
vsby/cig restrictions.



A low pressure system off to our west will increase onshore winds
slightly to the west of Apalachicola today and tonight, and a long
fetch of southerly winds deep into the Gulf of Mexico will increase
seas over our western coastal waters into the 2 to 4 foot range
today and into tonight. However, this will be below any headline
levels, and further to the east, winds and seas will remain
significantly lower. By Sunday and beyond, a weaker pressure pattern
more typical for summertime will return, resulting in light winds
and low seas for the rest of the period.


.Fire Weather...

A moist pattern is expected to persist for the next several days
with increased rain chances each afternoon and evening.



Rain chances will be quite a bit higher than recently through the
weekend and into early next week. Isolated rainfall totals in excess
of 2 to 4 inches are possible across the western half of the
forecast area with lesser amounts of 1.5 to 2 inches to the east
through Monday. These rainfall amounts should not be widespread
enough to cause any river flooding, although some localized minor
flooding in the usual flood prone areas will be possible.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   88  72  89  73  89 /  60  30  60  40  60
Panama City   87  77  87  77  88 /  80  40  50  40  50
Dothan        88  72  88  72  91 /  80  40  50  30  50
Albany        87  73  88  71  88 /  80  40  60  40  60
Valdosta      88  72  91  72  89 /  50  30  60  40  60
Cross City    89  72  91  72  88 /  40  20  60  40  60
Apalachicola  87  76  87  75  88 /  60  30  50  40  50


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf-South Walton.




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