Area Forecast Discussion
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816
FXUS62 KTAE 090758
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
358 AM EDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
During the predawn hours...the large scale pattern remained highly
amplified with trough along Ern seaboard with large upstream
ridge covering most of Conus. At surface...weak trough pivoting
across Ern most CWA. Last shortwave impulse rounding base of upper
trough and combined with surface trough was responsible for local
showers over waters. Clouds were exiting faster resulting in temps
several degrees cooler than forecast. Updated GRIDS accordingly.

During today...upper trough assocd moisture lift NE replaced by
ridging and NWLY to NLY flow. Surface trough exits SE of CWA this
morning as high pressure builds into Wrn Gulf and then begins to
slide Ewd with low level flow becoming NNW. All this will kick any
remaining showers east of CWA early. Expect a cooler and much
drier airmass overspreading the region. 24hr dew point
comparisons indicate the predawn dew points running 15 to 20
degrees drier than same time yesterday. RAP13 soundings shows
PWATs dropping to about 0.3 inches Wrn and 0.6 inches Ern areas
this aftn. The gradient will be tight between departing and
advancing upper and lower features yielding moderate to
breezy...and gusty...offshore winds. Highs will range from near 70
SE AL to low-mid 70s elsewhere. Expect mostly sunny to sunny
skies.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Dry weather is expected through the short term in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. Surface high pressure will build
over the area by Thursday morning, yielding good radiational
cooling conditions with clear skies and light winds. Below average
temperatures are expected tonight and Thursday night with daytime
highs near average on Thursday and Friday.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
By Friday the pattern becomes more zonal. A low amplitude
shortwave trough will slide well north of our area leaving us
under the influence of a ridge, with near normal max and min
temperatures through the extended. Our first real chance or rain
shows up by the end of the period. The GFS and EURO differ on how
they handle the upper-level pattern. The GFS shows the split
stream flow merging over Texas on Monday afternoon which then
develops a potent cut-off low. This solution socks in the entire
SE U.S. with rain, as a Gulf surface low slowly propagates to the
northeast. The Euro does not develop a cut-off low, instead it
moves the trough quickly through the region on Tuesday. The GFS
solution seems more probable given the trend towards Gulf low
development with our recent systems. Either way the beginning of
next week looks to be a wet one.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Thursday] VFR conditions will prevail for TAF period.
During the day...it will breezy for most sites with offshore winds
averaging around 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots decreasing to
light after sundown.

&&

.Marine...
Advisory conditions are occurring this morning across the coastal
waters. Expect a gradual decrease in winds and seas through the
day, but seas beyond 20 nm offshore will take some time to
decrease below advisory levels, so the advisory will likely
continue beyond 20 nm offshore for much of the day. Winds and seas
will then decrease through the end of the week as high pressure
builds over the southeastern states.

&&

.Fire Weather...
Much drier will move in with breezy northwest winds resulting in
high mixing heights and dispersions this afternoon...especially
away from the coast. Relative humidities will bottom out in the
low 30s. The airmass will further dry out Thursday with inland
humidities dropping to the mid 20s. However...neither ERC nor 20
foot wind values will reach red flag levels. The airmass will
begin to moisten up on Friday.

&&

.Hydrology...
Several basins continue to experience flooding or are forecast to
receive flooding at various points, including the Pea River,
Choctawhatchee River, Apalachicola River, Flint River,
Kinchafoonee Creek, and Spring Creek. Other basins such as the
Ochlockonee River, Aucilla River, and Withlacoochee River are in
action stage but are not currently forecast to reach flood stage,
although it may be close at the Withlacoochee River near Valdosta.

The most up to date, specific river forecast information can be
found on the AHPS page at
http:/water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=tae.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   72  43  78  45  79 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   72  52  73  55  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
Dothan        70  44  77  48  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
Albany        72  44  77  47  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      73  44  78  47  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
Cross City    74  44  78  46  80 /  10   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  70  49  74  51  75 /  10   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Gulf.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 AM EDT /5 AM CDT/ early this
     morning for Coastal Franklin-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Waters
     from Suwannee River to Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Apalachicola to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BLOCK
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...CAMP
AVIATION...BLOCK
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...BLOCK
HYDROLOGY...DVD






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