Area Forecast Discussion
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683
FXUS62 KTAE 250306
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1106 PM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER BENIGN NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT LIGHTER WINDS THAN
LAST NIGHT, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF FOG IN THE MORNING. LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT EAST OF A LINE FROM ALBANY THROUGH
TALLAHASSEE AND WILL BE SLOW TO SCATTER OUT TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY]...

MVFR CEILINGS WILL OVERSPREAD ALL TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT. IFR
CEILINGS ARE LIKELY AT ABY, TLH, AND VLD. PATCHY FOG WILL BE
AROUND TONIGHT, THROUGH CEILINGS WILL MAINLY DRIVE RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [400 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT]...

THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS AND AMPLIFIES. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC, LOCAL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BECOME ONSHORE BRINGING
WARMER TEMPS AND INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY
WITH THE BEST CHANCE THURSDAY NIGHT (40-60%) AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE CWA. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOWER TO
MID 80S WITH LOWS RANGING FROM MID 50S NORTHWEST TO MID 60S
SOUTHEAST.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSING OF THE COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, IT WILL BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN RETURNING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS DOWN
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS ONLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTHERNMOST ZONES AND
AROUND 40 TO THE LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. A MODEST WARMING TREND IS
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.


.MARINE...

LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN SO UNTIL A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
ELEVATE TO AT LEAST CAUTIONARY LEVELS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.


.FIRE WEATHER...

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.


.HYDROLOGY...

MODEST RISES IN SOME OF THE LOCAL RIVER STAGES WERE OBSERVED FROM
THE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT ALL SITES WERE BELOW ACTION STAGE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   56  83  56  81  61 /  10  10  10  20  50
PANAMA CITY   60  75  62  76  61 /  10  10  10  20  60
DOTHAN        54  80  55  81  54 /  10  10  10  20  50
ALBANY        59  80  55  82  56 /  10  10  10  20  40
VALDOSTA      58  84  57  84  61 /  10  10  10  20  50
CROSS CITY    55  83  58  83  65 /  10  10  10  20  50
APALACHICOLA  59  74  63  77  64 /  10  10  10  20  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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