Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

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206
FXUS62 KTAE 112020
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
420 PM EDT SAT APR 11 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TONIGHT]...
THIS AFTERNOON, THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM VALDOSTA TO
PANAMA CITY, THEN ALONG THE GULF COAST. THIS FRONT HAS HAD LITTLE
TO NO MOVEMENT ALL MORNING. MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THIS COLD FRONT
WILL STALL OUT ALONG THE GULF COAST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24
HOURS. CURRENTLY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH GREATLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE STABILIZES. TONIGHT WILL BE
MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

.SHORT TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT]...
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS A
SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL
JET INTERACTS WITH A WEAKENING BUT NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. CONVECTION ON SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE ON
MONDAY WITH ANOTHER HIGH DAY OF RATHER HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM [TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY]...
THE LONG TERM PATTERN LOOKS UNSETTLED AS THE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM REMAINS ACTIVE...TYPICAL OF EL NINO. DEEP MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DAILY
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE DAYS WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE OF STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...
[THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY] A MIX OF MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. MANY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE RAIN AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.

&&

.MARINE...
IN GENERAL...RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS WILL PREVAIL FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST NOTABLE EXCEPTION WILL BE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHEN A NOCTURNAL EASTERLY SURGE COULD BRING
CAUTIONARY LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST GULF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED...HOWEVER...MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE A WETTING RAIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MINIMUM RH
VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 60. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE LOW ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AFTERNOONS DUE TO LOW TRANSPORT WINDS AND LOW MIXING
HEIGHTS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ABOVE AVERAGE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT WEEK WITH
AVERAGE TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE
WEEK...HIGHEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEAST ALABAMA.
AS IS TYPICALLY THE CASE WITH CONVECTION...LOCALIZED HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY. THESE AMOUNTS MAY FORCE SOME RIVERS INTO
ACTION OR EVEN MINOR FLOOD STAGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   66  81  68  80  69 /  30  70  50  60  40
PANAMA CITY   68  77  70  77  70 /  30  70  50  50  30
DOTHAN        64  78  65  78  66 /  20  70  60  70  50
ALBANY        62  79  65  80  65 /  20  70  60  70  50
VALDOSTA      65  78  66  81  67 /  40  70  50  70  50
CROSS CITY    66  84  68  83  67 /  20  60  40  60  50
APALACHICOLA  69  80  72  79  72 /  30  60  40  50  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...DVD



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