Area Forecast Discussion
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708
FXUS62 KTAE 100055
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
855 PM EDT Wed Apr 9 2014

.Near Term [Rest of Tonight]...
Forecast appears to be on track for the remainder of tonight.
Expect winds to go calm as a surface ridge slides in from the east
this evening. A dry air mass in place and optimal radiational
cooling will allow lows to dip into the low to mid 40s tonight.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Friday] VFR conditions expected at all terminals.
Northerly winds will become southerly by Thursday morning.

&&

.Prev Discussion [303 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
The flow aloft is forecast to remain zonal through the rest of the
work week. At the surface, high pressure will slide eastward and
park over the Western Atlantic. This combination will keep the
weather dry with temperatures near seasonal normals (highs in
upper 70s/lower 80s and lows in the upper 40s/lower 50s).


.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The beginning of the period starts with zonal flow aloft,
transitioning into a ridging pattern early Sunday keeping
conditions benign. The next chance for rain will take place Monday
afternoon as the next upper trough approaches, with PoPs
remaining in the 30s and 40s through Wednesday morning. Although
the GFS and Euro handle the upper level patterns around this time
differently, they generally agree on the timing of rain and
thunderstorms. Temperatures will remain average for the time of
year until Tuesday when highs will drop about 10 degrees across
the area into the lower 70s.


.Marine...
Winds and seas will continue diminish overnight as high pressure
builds over the waters. With high pressure forecast to remain in
place, winds and seas will remain low through the weekend.


.Fire Weather...
Drier conditions will be in place on Thursday with relative
humidities in the afternoon dropping into the low to mid 20
percent range. While the duration criteria will be met in Florida,
the ERC values are quite low (with the exception of Leon/Wakulla).
Similarly, in GA/AL relative humidity values will approach/exceed
critical levels, but other required criteria will not be met. The
airmass will slowly moisten on Friday and throughout the weekend,
thus red flag conditions are not expected for the next several
days.


.Hydrology...
Crests are in progress or will happen shortly across Southern
Alabama within the upper portions of the Choctawhatchee and Pea
River basins. Ariton and Newton both reached moderate flood levels
in this event and will drop into the minor flood category tonight.
Geneva should crest on Thursday morning and will be very near
flood stage.

Further downstream at Caryville and Bruce, the Choctawhatchee
will continue rising with Caryville reaching its crest on Friday
evening just below moderate flood levels. It will still take a few
days for the crest wave to reach Bruce. Bruce should reach flood
stage by Friday evening. The latest forecast shows an eventual
crest near 16.3 feet, which is just below major flood stage. This
forecast may change, depending on further measurement of routed
flows from upstream sources, so there is potential for Bruce to
eventually crest just above major flood stage by Tuesday of next
week.

The Chattahoochee/Apalachicola River continues to rise downstream
of Columbia Lock/Dam, while releases upstream of these points have
largely stabilized. Inflows into Lake Seminole continue to require
releases nearing 10kcfs from Woodruff, which places the
Apalachicola just downstream of the dam very near flood stage.
These releases also will result in Blountstown cresting as high as
23 feet by Friday night. The latest release schedule does indicate
that flows should begin to stabilize around the 10kcfs level out
of Woodruff, thus using current release schedules from Woodruff,
moderate flooding is not anticipated at Blountstown.

The Flint will continue rising downstream of Albany. Newton
should stay below flood stage, but further downstream at
Bainbridge, the combination of high flows off the Ichawaynochaway
and routed flows from the Flint should result in minor flood
levels there by Friday.

In the Ochlockonee River, Thomasville and Concord have been
rising fast today with a little more water in the system than
anticipated. However, there still doesn`t appear to be quite
enough to result in flood stages being met above Lake Talquin -
though Concord will be close.

Elsewhere, the Withlacoochee at Valdosta appears to be cresting a
foot below flood stage. For the Suwannee, while high flows are
coming in from the Upper Suwannee, inflows from the Alapaha and
Withlacoochee will not be sufficient to result in any flooding
along the Middle Suwannee River points through the first of the
week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   43  78  43  79  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   48  74  54  77  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        44  78  48  79  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        43  79  46  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      43  78  47  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    44  79  47  81  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  48  72  52  74  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ Thursday for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WALSH/WOOL
SHORT TERM...CAMP
LONG TERM...CAMP/HELLER
AVIATION...WALSH/HARRIGAN
MARINE...CAMP
FIRE WEATHER...GODSEY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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