Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 141106

606 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2014

[Through 12Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail through the
period, with mid level clouds clearing through the day. Winds from
the north winds will stay around 10 knots until around 00Z
Saturday, when they will fall to around 5 knots or less.


.Prev Discussion [352 AM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Cold air advection continues behind the cold front. We`ll see a
chilly start to the day with a freeze warning in effect through 8
AM CT/ 9 AM ET across the northwestern third of our CWA and
morning temperatures in the 30s over much of the area- low 40s in
Taylor, Lafayette, and Dixie counties. As high pressure continues
to build over the southeast, skies will clear, but despite plenty
of sunshine, temperatures will only rise into the 50s during the
day, around 60 in Dixie county.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...
For tonight, a cold night is shaping up as a very cold and dry
airmass continues to advect into the area. It continues to look
like much of the northern and western portions of the forecast
area will see a light freeze tonight, so the freeze watch was
upgraded to a warning with a slight expansion eastward.

For Saturday, as surface high pressure begins to shift to the east
of the area, moisture will start to recover as the surface flow
veers to easterly. Daytime highs will also average between 5 and
10 degrees warmer than today but will still end up below normal.

For Sunday, we will just start to feel the affects of the next
system as a strong trough digs west of the area, although most of
the rain should hold off until the overnight hours into Monday.
Temperatures and dewpoints will continue to rebound as the flow
continues to veer the southeast.

.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...
The strong upper level trough and associated cold front will push
through the area during the Sunday night/Monday time period.
Rainfall looks likely across the entire area. Thunderstorms are
also possible, and both the 00z GFS and Euro are forecasting
decent shear values across the area. Instability is more
questionable, although the Euro actually has more instability than
the GFS. If enough instability can develop ahead of the system,
then a strong to severe storm would be possible, but confidence on
that occurring is currently low, especially with such a cold and
dry airmass to displace ahead of it first. We will continue to
monitor for that possibility.

Behind the system, another very cold and dry airmass will move in
with a widespread freeze likely on Tuesday night and again on
Wednesday night. In fact, some areas could flirt with local hard
freeze conditions (below 26 for at least 2 hours) on Tuesday
night. Highs will likely range from the upper 40s across the
north to the mid 50s across the southeast big bend both days.
These temperatures are a solid 20 degrees or more below average
for this time of year. A gradual moderation is expected for the
end of the week.

Winds are expected to drop below advisory levels by the late
morning hours today. However, occasional cautionary winds are
still expected through tonight. Winds look relatively light for
most of this weekend with another increase expected Sunday night
and Monday as the next front approaches.

.Fire Weather...
A much drier, colder airmass will be in place Friday. In southeast
Alabama, RH values will dip below 25 percent for 4-5 hours. In
Florida, Bay, Leon, and Wakulla counties will meet red flag
criteria as well for a combination of low RH for 4-5 hours and
high ERC values. A red flag warning is in effect for these
counties. Saturday will be dry as well, but RH values will be just
above red flag criteria for everyone except Georgia, where fuel
moisture will be too high. Humidity will begin to increase trough
early next week ahead of our next cold front.

The western half of the forecast area could see around an inch of
rain with the next system in the Sunday night/Monday time frame
with locally higher amounts possible. This will be the first
widespread rain in quite some time, so with the recent dry
conditions and progressive nature of the system, flooding is not
expected to be a problem.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   55  33  64  44  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   55  37  61  49  70 /   0   0   0  10  20
Dothan        51  29  59  42  68 /   0   0   0  10  20
Albany        53  30  60  40  70 /   0   0   0  10  20
Valdosta      56  34  62  45  72 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    60  35  67  49  74 /   0   0   0  10  10
Apalachicola  57  38  62  49  70 /   0   0   0  10  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Freeze Warning from 1 AM EST /Midnight CST/ to 8 AM EST /7 AM
     CST/ Saturday for Calhoun-Central Walton-Gadsden-Holmes-
     Inland Bay-Inland Walton-Jackson-Liberty-Washington.

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for Central Walton-
     Holmes-Inland Walton-Jackson-Washington.

     Red Flag Warning from Noon EST /11 AM CST/ today to 6 PM EST /5
     PM CST/ this evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland
     Bay-Inland Wakulla-Leon.

GA...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for Baker-Ben Hill-

     Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for Baker-Calhoun-

AL...Freeze Warning from Midnight tonight to 7 AM CST Saturday for

     Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST this morning for Coffee-Dale-

     Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM CST this
     afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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