Area Forecast Discussion
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618
FXUS62 KTAE 140052
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
752 PM EST Sat Dec 13 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

We remain locked into a stable weather pattern as the mid-upper
level flow across much of the CONUS was an omega block. The latest
NWP guidance consensus is very close to our afternoon forecast
package, as we anticipate another in a string of cool nights.
Lows will be near freezing across the normally coldest interior
locations east of the Apalachicola/Chattahoochee Rivers, and mid
30s west. Widespread frost is also likely.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Monday] We will continue our recent stretch of
remarkably fair weather through at least Sunday evening. Unlimited
cigs and unrestricted Vis are expected, with NW-N winds less than
10 KT through the period. Smoke plumes from a few wildfires may locally
reduce Vis.

&&

.Prev Discussion [352 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Sunday Through Monday Night]...

High-amplitude upper-level ridging will overspread much of the
eastern third of the country on Sunday. The upper-level pattern
will begin to transition on Monday as a +PV anomaly forces a
shortwave trough into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. At
the surface, high pressure will remain intact through the day on
Monday, continuing the dry northwest flow on Sunday, and very weak
transitioning flow on Monday. No rain is expected on Sunday or
Monday, with highs gradually moderating to near 70 degrees on
Monday. Overnight lows on Sunday night will remain in the low to
mid 30s.

On Monday night, a somewhat favorable region of upper-level
diffluence will overspread the local area where the northern
stream short-wave and southern stream flow spread apart on the
heels of the departing ridge. However, it appears as though this
synoptic support will arrive prior to the surface front with very
little deep layer moisture or low-level forcing available. Thus no
rain is expected on Monday night, though the veering low-layer
flow should moderate overnight temperatures into the 50s west of
the Apalachicola and Chattahoochee rivers and in the lower to
middle 40s east.


.Long Term [Tuesday Through Saturday]...

On Tuesday, the aforementioned surface front will press into the
region and will bring a slight chance for some light showers.
Though, as mentioned above, the deep layer forcing will have
outrun the front yielding only shallow forcing immediately along
the front. Rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch
at best. We`ll finish the week dry, with seasonable afternoon
highs and overnight lows. The next chance for rain will come next
weekend as another shortwave moves into the eastern half of the
country.


.Marine...

Sub-headline level northwest winds will continue through Sunday
night before veering southerly late on Monday through the first
part of Tuesday. On Tuesday, a cold front will pass through the
northeast Gulf and may increase winds briefly to cautionary
levels. Light winds and low seas will then prevail to finish the
week.


.Fire Weather...

Fair weather will continue through Monday, with a gradual warming
and moistening trend, especially during the afternoons. With a
high pressure system remaining in place, surface and transport
winds, as well as daytime mixing heights, will remain low. This
combination will keep daytime dispersion values at unusually low
levels.


.Hydrology...

Dry weather is expected for much of the next week. The only
exception will be when a quarter-inch or less of rain will be
possible on Tuesday. Though, area rivers should remain rather
steady state.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   33  68  36  70  45 /   0   0   0   0  10
Panama City   43  63  45  67  54 /   0   0   0   0  10
Dothan        37  63  39  68  51 /   0   0   0   0  20
Albany        33  65  36  68  46 /   0   0   0   0  10
Valdosta      33  66  37  68  43 /   0   0   0   0  10
Cross City    32  68  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  41  65  44  66  53 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...HARRIGAN
LONG TERM...HARRIGAN
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...HARRIGAN
FIRE WEATHER...FOURNIER
HYDROLOGY...HARRIGAN







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