Area Forecast Discussion
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292
FXUS62 KTAE 200404
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1104 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

Little change in the current fcst as clear skies, light winds, and
sub-freezing temperatures will continue to slowly fall through the
night, with hard freezing conditions across the entire CWA by
morning. Low temps will bottom out in the upper teens to the lower
20s except along the immediate coast where mid 20s will prevail.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 00Z Saturday] VFR conditions will prevail with light
winds, mostly clear to clear skies, and virtually no
obstructions to ideal flying conditions except for the very cold
temperatures Friday morning.

&&

.Prev Discussion [255 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...
A warming trend will begin on Friday as high pressure moves
eastward into the Western Atlantic and east southeasterly flow
starts to return moisture to the region. Some mid and upper level
cloudiness will lead to a mostly sunny day with temperatures
rebounding into the mid to upper 50s for most of the area.

Friday night will be a cool night but not nearly as chilly as the
past couple of days. Lows will be generally in the mid to upper
30s, with the coolest temperatures in eastern areas, further away
from the increasing cloud cover and building moisture.

Saturday/Saturday night the warming trend will continue as
moderate southerly flow brings even more Gulf moisture back into
the region. With partly cloudy skies, temperatures should easily
warm through the 60s with some locations even reaching the lower
70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...
A cold front will approach from late in the day on Sunday and
stall across or just south of the area from Monday into Wednesday.
The models are having a challenge depicting how much rain is
expected during this time, in part because the upper support is
significantly lacking, remaining further to the north. It isn`t
until Wednesday that the Eastern CONUS trough will further amplify
pushing the frontal boundary off to the south of the region. Thus,
the period from Mon-Wed will likely feature below normal
temperatures with low end chances of rain.

The tail end of the extended looks to be on the dry side, but the
pattern late Thursday and beyond suggest a stretch of cool and
unsettled weather will continue early into the weekend. Thus,
aside from a brief respite at the beginning of the long term
period, the cool conditions will continue.


.Marine...
Winds and seas should continue to decrease today as high pressure
builds just north of the marine area. Winds will increase out of
the south early on Saturday with a stretch of advisory conditions
through Saturday evening. The pressure gradient then relaxes by
Sunday with winds shifting to offshore by Monday as a frontal
boundary moves through the waters.


.Fire Weather...
Red flag conditions will likely be met once again across the
southeast corner of Alabama and Walton county in the Florida
panhandle and the respective fire weather watches have been upgraded
to a Red flag warning on Friday. The dry airmass will continue to
encompass the remainder of the Tri-state region on Friday but Red
Flag criteria will not be met due to light winds and higher
available fuel moisture.


.Hydrology...
The next chance of rain is expected to be next week, Monday
through Wednesday. Rainfall amounts will be on the low side,
generally less than 0.5 inches. As a result, river flooding is
not anticipated through the next several days.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   19  56  39  71  50 /   0   0   0  10  10
Panama City   26  56  46  67  57 /   0   0   0  10  10
Dothan        21  53  40  70  51 /   0   0  10  10  20
Albany        19  50  36  69  49 /   0   0  10  10  10
Valdosta      20  54  33  71  51 /   0   0   0  10  10
Cross City    18  55  35  71  52 /   0   0   0   0  10
Apalachicola  27  55  47  67  57 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST /8 AM CST/ Friday for Calhoun-
     Central Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Dixie-Coastal Franklin-
     Coastal Gulf-Coastal Jefferson-Coastal Taylor-Coastal
     Wakulla-Gadsden-Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Dixie-Inland
     Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Jefferson-Inland Taylor-Inland
     Wakulla-Inland Walton-Jackson-Lafayette-Leon-Liberty-
     Madison-South Walton-Washington.

     Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 5 PM CST Friday for Central Walton-
     Inland Walton-South Walton.

GA...Hard Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST Friday for Baker-Ben Hill-
     Berrien-Brooks-Calhoun-Clay-Colquitt-Cook-Decatur-Dougherty-
     Early-Grady-Irwin-Lanier-Lee-Lowndes-Miller-Mitchell-
     Quitman-Randolph-Seminole-Terrell-Thomas-Tift-Turner-Worth.

AL...Hard Freeze Warning until 8 AM CST Friday for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-
     Henry-Houston.

     Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 5 PM CST Friday for Coffee-Dale-
     Geneva-Henry-Houston.

GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GODSEY
LONG TERM...GODSEY
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...GODSEY
FIRE WEATHER...BARRY
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY






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