Area Forecast Discussion
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659
FXUS62 KTAE 251054
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
654 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY] OUTSIDE OF VLD...THE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS
DID NOT DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL VFR CIGS
MOVED IN. AT VLD...MVFR CIGS DID DEVELOP AND MAY HOLD IN FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE VFR CONDITIONS RETURN. FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT
NO WORSE THAN MVFR LEVEL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [400 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

AFTER SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURN OFF,
ANOTHER PARTLY CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERNMOST SECTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
ALTHOUGH NO RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME, MODEST
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW
HIGH TEMPS TO CLIMB INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST TO
THE MIDDLE 80S OVER THE INTERIOR.


.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY]...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER PLAINS
TONIGHT...AND BECOME VERY DEEP AND RATHER BROAD ON FRIDAY AS IT
BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
ECMWF AND GFS FORECAST SUFFICIENT...IF NOT SPECTACULAR...0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE. THIS COULD PROMOTE STORM
ORGANIZATION IN THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. THE FORECAST 0-1 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES ARE BELOW 20 KT...WHICH IS NOT THAT FAVORABLE FOR A
SIGNIFICANT TORNADO THREAT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN SBCAPE VALUES BELOW
1000 J/KG. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS
APPEARS LIMITED (BUT NOT ZERO). SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM [FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY]...

THE AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BECOME RATHER SPLIT AND MORE ZONAL IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. FAIR AND COOL WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR OUR FORECAST
AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S AND LOWS IN THE
40S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN NEXT WEEK. A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST...WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY
MID WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE GFS INDICATES A MUCH MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM
THAN THE ECMWF.


.MARINE...

FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THEY WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AND VEER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NEAR
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.


.FIRE WEATHER...

SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVENT ANY FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT MUCH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION OVER THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. IF THIS AIR MASS IS INDEED DRY ENOUGH, AND OTHER
CRITICAL PARAMETERS ARE MET, RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A
POSSIBILITY FOR PARTS OF THE REGION BY SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.


.HYDROLOGY...

NEARLY ALL OF THE LOCAL RIVERS WERE BELOW ACTION STAGE. THE NEXT
ROUND OF RAIN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE MAJOR RISES ON THE RIVERS. WE EXPECT BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50
INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT OF COURSE LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   84  58  79  62  72 /  10  10  40  60  50
PANAMA CITY   75  63  74  60  68 /  10  10  50  60  40
DOTHAN        81  59  77  55  64 /  10  10  40  60  30
ALBANY        80  57  78  58  66 /  10  10  30  60  30
VALDOSTA      80  58  81  63  71 /  20  10  30  60  50
CROSS CITY    81  59  81  66  75 /  10  10  30  60  70
APALACHICOLA  74  63  76  64  71 /  10  10  40  70  50

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...FOURNIER
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER



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