Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 161522

1122 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...
An amplified long wave trough dominates much of eastern North
America this morning. This trough has helped to drive the second
cold front of the month all the way to the Gulf Coast (west of
here). The front is just now entering our northwestern zones and
will continue to make slow southeastward progress. By 00Z, it should
extend roughly from Destin to Marianna to Tifton. The frontal
passage will end thunderstorm chances over our northwestern zones.
However, for the southeastern half of the area, PoPs will be pretty
high (50-80). The severe weather threat and max temp forecast are
both contingent on how quickly the multi-layer clouds clear out.
Even if we do get sufficient insolation to destabilize sufficiently,
the severe threat still looks marginal at best with the best chance
for strong storms over the FL Big Bend and VLD area. The temp
forecast looks pretty reasonable and already shows suppressed temps
across our southern zones.


[Through 12Z Thursday] After MVFR ceilings lift, a brief return
to MVFR/IFR level conditions will be possible in scattered showers
and thunderstorms around ECP, TLH and VLD. However, VFR conditions
are expected to prevail at all of the terminals for most of the
upcoming period. Overnight, another brief period of MVFR
visibility is forecast.


Moderate westerly flow will be in place today ahead of an approaching
cold front. The front will stall over the waters tonight. After
the front weakens on Thursday...expect light winds and low seas to


.Prev Discussion [402 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
Much drier air will begin to arrive tonight into the northwestern
portion of the region and continue progressing into the area
behind an unusual summertime cold front. Precipitable water values
in the global models drop below 1 inch across the northern half of
the region by Thursday morning. While unusually dry, PWs in the
0.8in-0.9in range aren`t quite to record levels for this time of
year. With a drier airmass in place, expect rain chances to be 10
percent or less through at least Friday.

Low temperatures throughout the short term period will be notably
cool for July with lows in portions of SE Alabama dropping into
the lower 60s. The current forecast shows a low temperature by
Friday morning of 65 at Tallahassee. Were this to verify, it would
tie a record low for July 18th set back in 1974.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The drier air and zonal upper level flow will yield a couple dry
days in the extended range forecast before a weakening shortwave
approaches on Sunday and lingers over the Southeast through the
remainder of the forecast period. Expect below average rain
chances to increase to above average beginning Sunday and lasting
through at least Tuesday.

.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are clearly not expected across the region today
with ample cloud cover, moisture, and rain chances, and even though
they are not expected on Thursday and Friday, conditions for
controlled burns will be much improved as much drier air moves into
the region behind a rare mid-July cold front.

Aside from isolated 1 to 2 inch rainfall amounts in the Southeast
Florida Big Bend today, generally dry conditions will prevail for
the next few days. Current river levels are below flood stage and
this is expected to continue.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   88  67  93  65  94 /  50  10  10  10  10
Panama City   86  71  86  71  91 /  40  10  10  10  10
Dothan        89  65  90  66  93 /  20  10  10  10  10
Albany        91  66  91  66  94 /  30  10  10  10  10
Valdosta      89  67  92  68  93 /  50  20  10  10  10
Cross City    85  70  92  68  93 /  80  40  10  10  10
Apalachicola  85  72  87  70  90 /  80  20  10  10  10


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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