Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 250122

922 PM EDT Wed Sep 24 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
Low clouds have returned quickly this evening on the northeasterly
flow. Expect a cloudy night for most areas and have updated the
grids for sky cover. Otherwise, the temperature and wind forecast
appears on track, with no precipitation expected.


[Through 00Z Friday] The MVFR stratus deck never did clear out of
the VLD area today and has already surged westward to engulf ABY
and TLH. It is possible that DHN and ECP will see periods of MVFR
ceilings. However, they should be near the fringe of the deck.
Further east, confidence is increasing that we will see the deck
lower into the IFR category at VLD and possibly even ABY. The deck
will slowly erode from southwest to northeast on Thursday between
14-18Z and may linger all day once again at VLD. No visibility
restrictions are anticipated through the period.


Northeasterly flow will continue into Saturday with a trough of low
pressure situated off the northeast Florida coast. Nocturnal surges
will push winds to near exercise caution levels each of the next few
nights and we have now included the headline for tonight as well.
Winds will become more easterly to southeasterly late in the weekend
into early next week.


.Prev Discussion [301 PM EDT]...

.Short Term [Wednesday through Through Friday night]...
A trough of low pressure along the southeast coast, along with
high pressure over New England, will keep northeasterly flow in
place across the forecast area through the end of the work week.
Expect to see a continuation of the morning clouds and afternoon
sun with high temperatures around seasonal normals. Rain chances
will begin to increase on Friday as the surface trough (enhanced
by a weak tropical wave) begins to slide to the east. Best rain
chances on Friday will be over the southeastern third of the
forecast area. however, isolated showers will be possible
elsewhere as well.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
A weak inverted trough will move across the northeastern Gulf
Coast during the weekend. This will generate showers and isolated
thunderstorms as deep layer moisture increases. Initially, best
rain chances will be across the southern half of the forecast
area. However, by late in the weekend a developing trough over the
Southern Plains will pull the moisture further north, with
enhanced rain chances across the remainder of the area. With
precipitable water values possibly exceeding 2 inches, there will
be some potential for locally heavy rainfall. Into Monday and
Tuesday, the global guidance diverges with the ECMWF cutting off
an upper low over the Arklatex and pushing a strong front into the
Deep South. The GFS is much weaker and more progressive with its
evolution. At this time, have leaned more towards the wetter ECMWF
solution for Monday and Monday night.

With the approach of the inverted trough and it`s more tropical
airmass, temperatures will likely be a bit above normal for the
weekend into early next week (especially for min temps).

.Fire Weather...
Gradually increasing moisture levels over the next several days will
preclude red flag criteria from being reached.

On Friday we`ll begin to transition to a wet pattern which could
bring 2+ inches of rain, over a few day stretch, to the region.
Specifically, north Florida appears as though it will be affected
most by the upcoming rain. However, with most rivers across
Florida in low-flow stages, seven day rainfall amounts should not
result in flooding levels along local rivers.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   60  85  67  87  72 /  10  10  10  30  30
Panama City   64  85  70  88  73 /  10   0  10  20  30
Dothan        58  82  65  86  68 /  10   0  10  20  20
Albany        59  83  67  86  70 /  10   0  10  20  20
Valdosta      59  83  67  87  70 /  10  10  10  40  30
Cross City    62  85  70  87  71 /  10  20  20  50  40
Apalachicola  63  84  71  86  75 /  10  10  10  30  30


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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