Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 211922

322 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...
The mid/upper level low can be seen on water vapor imagery
spinning over central Alabama this afternoon with a deep plume of
moisture feeding northward across our CWA from the Gulf. Most
convection so far today has been across our GA zones, the eastern
Big Bend and over the coastal waters. PoPs through 00z will be
tapered lower end chance (30%) west to likely (60%) east. Then,
PoPs for the 00-06z time period will be tapered 20% mainly west of
the river and 30-40% to the east. After 06z, PoPs drop to slight
chance (20%) for all but the coastal Big bend (30%). Min temps
will be around 70 degrees.

.Short Term [Tuesday Through Wednesday Night]...
The short term period will be marked by a gradual decrease in active
convection. Local area located between high to east and low to
west. The upper high over Wrn Atlc builds Wwd into Ern FL thru the
period. In response, H5 low embedded in trough over Srn AL with
deep layer low near MOB Tues begins to retrograde slowly Wwd and
open up to reach Srn LA on Wed and the LWR MS Valley Wed night.
Locally, expect modest increase in subsidence especially on Wed.
At surface, assocd low/trough also shifts Wwd from Srn MS/AL and
weakens thru period allowing ridge to sink slowly Swd and build
Wwd across Cntrl Gulf of Mex. Locally this favors continued onshore
flow, PWATS remaining near 2 inches and a weak pressure pattern
yielding mainly aftn/eve seabreeze generated convection. While no
strong to severe tstms are expected due to extensive cloud cover
and lack of adequate destabilization, some additional heavy
rainfall will be possible especially on Tues with focus shifting
to Ern counties.

Will go with 30-60% SW-NE POPs Tues, 10-50% W-E Tues night, 30-40%
Wed and 20-30% Wed night. Once again, high temperatures will vary
quite a bit from location to location and be highly dependent on
breaks in the cloudiness. Expect highs in the low 90s Tues, low to
mid 90s Wed. Lows at night in low 70s except for mid to a few upper
70s near the immediate coast.

.Long Term [Thursday Through Monday]...
The large scale pattern commences rather amplified with ridging over
west, troughing over east and ridge over extreme Wrn Atlc. At
surface, ridge from Wrn Atlc to over local region with cold front
draped over mid-south. During the rest of the period, Wrn ridge
shifts Ewd with downstream trough pivoting and deepening Ewd over
local region on Fri before lifting Newd and flattening Sat into Sun.
Front inches swd shunting Gulf ridge further Swd allowing for a
return to a more WLY flow and normal summer time seabreeze dominated
regime. Will go with generally 30-40% aftn/eve POPs thru the period.
Expect highs generally in the low to mid 90s, lows low to mid 70s.


[Through 18Z Tuesday] SCT convection will impact the ABY, VLD and
possibly the TLH terminals through this afternoon. There is a
lower probability of convection impacting the DHN and ECP
terminals during that time. The impacts will be brief periods of
MVFR VSBY and IFR CIGS. A brief period of MVFR VSBYs is also
possible at VLD due to fog in the pre-dawn hours. Otherwise, VFR
will prevail.


A low pressure system now in the vicinity of our western coastal
waters will begin to dissipate tonight. This will result in the
return of a weaker pressure pattern more typical for summertime,
which should result in generally light winds and low seas for the
remainder of the period.


.Fire Weather...
Red Flag conditions are not expected this week.


While additional rainfall concerns for any potential minor
flooding or rises along some of our area rivers and streams in the
Florida Panhandle (such as Mossy Head which could potentially
reach minor flood stage today with around 2.5" of additional
rainfall) will gradually decrease as the higher amounts begin to
lessen and shift eastward next week, some locations in the Florida
Panhandle will require some close monitoring today in case another
batch of heavy rainfall strikes the region. Otherwise, only minor
flooding of poor drainage and low lying areas will be possible
once again today.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   70  92  72  93  72 /  30  50  30  40  20
Panama City   75  89  75  89  77 /  20  40  20  30  20
Dothan        71  91  72  93  72 /  20  40  20  30  20
Albany        70  92  72  93  72 /  40  50  30  30  20
Valdosta      69  91  71  95  72 /  40  50  50  40  30
Cross City    70  92  72  93  72 /  40  60  40  30  30
Apalachicola  74  87  74  89  78 /  30  40  20  30  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.




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