Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 221443
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
943 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The 7 am EST regional surface analysis showed a cold front from north
GA through southern LA. This front will move slowly through our
forecast area tonight and Monday. Vapor imagery and upper air data
showed mostly zonal flow over the Gulf Coast states, with a few embedded
minor short wave troughs. Local radars showed areas of rain across
southern AL & MS, and the latest consensus of CAMs appear to have
a decent handle on this. We expect some of this rain to affect our
southeast AL and southwest GA region this afternoon, but rain
chances elsewhere will be slight. Isolated thunderstorms are also
possible. High temperatures will range from the mid 70s around
Cross City and Valdosta, to upper 60s around Dothan and Panama
City (where cloud cover will be more extensive).

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Monday] But for KDHN, mainly VFR cigs are expected
today. At KDHN, IFR cigs will gradually lift to MVFR levels by
early afternoon. Periods of rain are likely at KDHN, and an
isolated TSRA can`t be ruled out. Only isolated SHRA are expected
elsewhere. Recent statistical guidance and raw model output
indicate a high likelihood of IFR (or worse) cigs and/or fog
overnight, and we will likely have to add this in our 18 UTC TAF
package.

&&

.Prev Discussion [627 AM EST]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Tuesday]...
The cold front mentioned above will push through the forecast area
tonight into Monday. The best chance of rain will be across the
northwest half of the area as the front will be weakening as it
moves through. Model disagreements become apparent by Tuesday as
the NAM and ECMWF spread additional light rain into the area with
a weak upper level shortwave while the GFS is drier. The official
forecast went with a compromise and shows 30-50% PoPs. With an
increase in cloud cover expected on Tuesday, high temperatures
will be held down somewhat with lower 50s expected across the
north and mid 50s to near 60 across the southeast big bend.


.Long Term [Tuesday Night Through Sunday]...
A more significant system is possible on Wednesday with both the
GFS and ECMWF indicating a fairly vigorous upper level shortwave
with a surface low moving along the coast. With the 00z models in
general agreement on the timing, PoPs were bumped up to 70% for
Wednesday. This looks like a decent rainfall producer with a
couple of inches possible across the area. With the surface low
expected to track south of the area, the airmass currently looks
too stable for thunderstorms across our area. After the Wednesday
system, another system is possible for next weekend. Overall, high
temperatures are expected to be a bit below average with lows
near average.


.Marine...
Southerly winds will be subsiding today. However by late tonight
into Monday, a cold front will move through the coastal waters,
bringing an increase in northerly winds possibly to cautionary
levels mainly west of Apalachicola. Winds are then expected to be
light for Tuesday before increasing again on Wednesday to near
advisory levels as an area of low pressure moves along the coast.


.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.


.Hydrology...
Several rounds of rainfall are possible this week with the best
chance for an areawide moderate to possibly heavy rainfall event
expected on Wednesday. Total rainfall is generally expected to be
in the 2-3 inch range with isolated higher totals possible. This
will cause rises on area rivers and may bring a few of our sites
back up to action stage. At this time, flooding is not expected,
although if widespread rainfall amounts were to increase above 3
inches, then the Kinchafoonee Creek as well as the Ochlockonee and
Aucilla Rivers could come close to minor flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   71  55  69  49  57 /  20  20  20  40  50
Panama City   66  57  63  48  54 /  30  20  20  40  50
Dothan        69  49  59  41  51 /  60  50  20  40  50
Albany        70  51  61  40  51 /  40  50  20  30  40
Valdosta      74  55  68  45  53 /  10  20  20  40  50
Cross City    74  54  72  50  60 /  10  10  20  30  50
Apalachicola  66  58  68  51  57 /  20  10  20  40  50

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ this evening for
     Coastal Bay-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...FOURNIER
SHORT TERM...DVD
LONG TERM...DVD
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...DVD
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...DVD







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