Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 131422
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1022 AM EDT Mon May 13 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Very dry air will continue to filter into the region and support a
sunny and mild afternoon with highs today approaching or just exceeding
80f for most sites. With strong diurnal mixing, we should see northerly
winds increase into the 10 to 15 mph range by late morning.
Primary point of interest in the near term will be record lows
tonight. The dry air, calm winds and clear skies will support
strong radiational cooling and dip temperatures well below normal
and even threaten to break daily record lows. The records tonight:
Tallahassee is 47F set in 1960, Apalachicola is 54F set in 1981
and Albany is 47 set in 1960. The current forecast is for all of
these sites to tie or break these records tonight.
.SHORT TERM [Tuesday Through Wednesday]...
By Tuesday afternoon and continuing into Wednesday, ridging aloft
and the strong May sun angle will allow to airmass to quickly
modify. Highs are expected to reach the lower 80s Tuesday
afternoon and the mid to upper 80s Wednesday afternoon. No rain is
expected through Wednesday.
.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night through Sunday]...
Although models are showing upper level ridging at 300 mb that
stays in place through the period, they also show a mid-level
short wave impulse at 500 mb that will propagate through the weak
ridging. This may cause some convection by the weekend,
particularly during daytime hours with solar heating to aid it,
but the models are not showing high rain chances overall, with
PoPs highest on Saturday and Sunday during the day with values
<30%. Temperatures will be about normal for this time of year.
.AVIATION [Beginning 14Z Monday]...
[Through 12z Tuesday] VFR conditions are expected through the
period. The only possible impact is expected to be northerly
winds with gusts between 15 and 20 knots from late morning until
High pressure building into the lower Mississippi Valley today
will keep the gradient tight over the coastal waters. Although
winds will remain modest, they are no longer expected to reach
Advisory criteria. Regardless, Exercise Caution conditions will
be prevalent today, although even these will relax by late in the day.
Winds and seas will gradually diminish tonight into Tuesday as the
high moves closer to the region. Light winds and minimal seas are
then expected through the remainder of the week.
Red flag conditions appear likely this afternoon across portions
of northwest Florida due to a combination of long durations of low
RH and high ERC. The wind component will also be close to red flag
criteria. While very dry air will also be present across southeast
Alabama and southwest Georgia, red flag conditions are not
expected there due to insufficient KBDI and fuel moisture
requirements respectively. It will also be dry again on Tuesday
with long durations of low RH expected and high ERCs expected to
continue, so a watch will be issued for the same counties that
have a warning today.
No hydrologic problems are anticipated this week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 80 45 82 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Panama City 79 57 80 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 10
Dothan 78 50 84 58 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
Albany 78 47 83 56 88 / 0 0 0 0 10
Valdosta 80 45 82 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 10
Cross City 81 44 82 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 10
Apalachicola 79 54 77 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 10
FL...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
Coastal Bay-Inland Bay.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
evening for Coastal Bay-Coastal Wakulla-Inland Bay-Inland
RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM EDT this evening for Coastal