Area Forecast Discussion
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151
FXUS62 KTAE 150604
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
204 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

The weather pattern remains unchanged today from yesterday. We
reside in a zonal flow regime on the base of an upper level trough,
with a surface front draped across the Tri-State region. Behind the
front, unseasonably dry air will preclude any shower and
thunderstorm development, while scattered storms are expected ahead
of the front. The best chances for storms will be east of a line
from Mexico Beach through Tallahassee and Valdosta. Highs will be in
the middle 90s behind the front, with lower 90s ahead of it.


.Short Term [Tonight Through Sunday]...

The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement in building an east-west
oriented deep layer ridge across the FL Peninsula and eastern
Gulf of Mexico. What`s left of the quasi-stationary front
(currently across our forecast area) will drift very slowly to the
north and gradually dissipate. Both global models forecast dry,
sinking air aloft on Saturday- especially along and north of a
line from Panama City to Valdosta (where our forecast PoP is 20%
or less in the afternoon & evening hours). It won`t be quite as
dry across north FL, and the boundary layer will still be very
moist, so scattered storms are expected (30% PoP). Deep layer
moisture will begin to gradually increase from southwest to
northeast on Sunday, though there will still be some residual
warm/dry air aloft. The forecast PoP is 20-30%, though with the
weakening front we don`t expect to see as sharp a difference in
the moisture/PoP distribution. Highs temperatures will be in the
mid 90s inland (around 90 at the coast), and lows will be in the
70s.


.Long Term [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

Upper level flow will become zonal for the extended period.
Southwest winds will bring moisture from the Gulf and scattered rain
chances, typical for this time of year. High temperatures will be in
the mid 90s and lows in the mid 70s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 06Z Saturday] MVFR to IFR visibilities are expected once
again this morning at TLH and VLD. Shortly after sunrise, VFR will
return to all terminals. There is a relatively low chance of a
thunderstorm impacting TLH and VLD this afternoon, with
essentially no chance of rain at ECP, DHN, and ABY.

&&

.Marine...

Winds will generally be west to southwest around 10 KT into early
next week, as a high pressure ridge builds across the Florida
Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Seas will be 2 ft or less.

&&

.Fire Weather...

The Tri-State region will be bisected northeast to southwest for a
couple more days by a front dividing dry air to the north and more
saturated conditions to the south. However, even in the driest
locations relative humidity levels should remain above critical
levels precluding any hazardous fire weather conditions.

&&

.Hydrology...

Through Saturday we expect the heaviest rain around Cross City and
Mayo, where 0.50 to 1 inch is likely. Locally heavy rain is
possible, which could cause brief, localized flooding of low-lying
urban areas. Elsewhere the showers & storms will be too isolated to
make a significant dent in our summer dry spell, and area rivers
remain well below flood stage.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   92  73  93  73  95 /  30  10  10  10  30
Panama City   89  76  90  77  90 /  10  10  10  10  30
Dothan        92  70  94  73  94 /   0   0  10  10  20
Albany        95  70  96  72  94 /   0   0  10  10  20
Valdosta      92  71  95  71  95 /  30  20  20  20  20
Cross City    88  73  91  72  93 /  40  30  30  20  20
Apalachicola  88  77  90  77  90 /  40  20  20  10  30

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HARRIGAN
SHORT TERM...FOURNIER
LONG TERM...WESTON
AVIATION...HARRIGAN
MARINE...FOURNIER
FIRE WEATHER...HARRIGAN
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER







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