Area Forecast Discussion
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091
FXUS62 KTAE 240150
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
850 PM EST Fri Jan 23 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

At the sfc, a low is currently over SE Alabama with a cold front
extending through the Florida Panhandle. The low will lift north of
the forecast area this evening and then reform along the NC coast
overnight pulling a cold front through the area. Some light rain
could linger behind the front until the short wave passes and cuts
off QG forcing for ascent. PoPs after midnight will lower to likely
east of an Albany to Tallahassee line with chance PoPs west of
there. Lows by dawn Saturday will range from the lower 40s across
the northwest half of the forecast area to the lower 50s south and
east of Perry.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 00Z Sunday]...

A dynamic frontal system moving through the area will yield
widespread IFR-LIFR cigs throughout the remainder of the night.
Expect light rain or drizzle overnight as the cold front
approaches. Cigs will be slow to lift behind the front (most
terminals staying at least IFR until tomorrow morning). Once the
cold front passes winds will become northwesterly and gusty.

&&

.Prev Discussion [402 PM EST]...

.Short Term [Saturday Through Sunday Night]...
Wrap around moisture from a departing low will be lingering Saturday
morning. Rain chances will be very low by this time and cloud cover
will move out by Saturday afternoon. Winds will be gusty Saturday
morning and afternoon as a tight pressure gradient moves over the
area. Northwesterly flow will bring cooler, drier air on Saturday
with highs in the mid to upper 50s. On Sunday, a low over the Ohio
River Valley will track southeast towards North Carolina bringing a
weak cold front through the CWA. Rain and clouds are not expected
with this front, but there will be cooler, drier air once again
after FROPA on Monday morning. Highs Sunday will be in the low 60s.
Lows will be in the mid 30s Saturday night and low 40s on Sunday
night.


.Long Term [Monday Through Friday]...
A deep upper level trough will remain over the Atlantic Coast of
Florida until mid week. High pressure at the sfc will move in by
Wednesday. Flow will be northerly and cool, dry air will remain in
place for most of the week. Another weak cold front will move
through Thursday night into Friday morning, bringing only a slight
chance of rain. Temperatures will be seasonal with highs generally
in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Lows will be in the mid to upper
30s.


.Marine...
Gale Force winds are no longer expected over the marine area.
However, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until tomorrow
evening. A cold front will move through this evening, bringing
strong northwesterly winds behind it. Moderate southerly winds this
evening will increase and shift to westerly overnight. By morning,
winds will be strong and northwesterly. Sustained winds will reach
25 knots over the outer waters with brief gusts up to 35 knots
possible. Winds will become light to moderate Saturday night, only
to pick up again Sunday night and Monday. Small Craft Advisory
conditions are likely again Sunday night and Monday.


.Fire Weather...
Heavy rainfall today will limit fire weather concerns for the next
several days, despite the arrival of drier air over the weekend.


.Hydrology...
A widespread 1.5-3" of rain fell across the area today, with
streaks of 3-6" roughly from Apalachicola to Madison. This has
caused sharp rises along some of our area rivers. Minor flooding
is forecast along the Withlacoochee and Aucilla rivers and is also
possible along the Shoal river today. Within the next week, more
minor flooding will be possible along the St. Marks, Ochlockonee,
and Kinchafoonee rivers, where rises are forecast to be slower.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   48  58  34  64  44 /  80  10   0   0  10
Panama City   46  56  40  63  49 /  60  10   0   0  10
Dothan        42  54  35  62  42 /  60  10   0   0  10
Albany        44  55  34  62  41 /  80  10   0  10  10
Valdosta      49  58  35  63  44 /  90  10   0  10  10
Cross City    53  61  35  64  46 /  90  20  10   0  10
Apalachicola  49  58  41  61  50 /  80  10   0   0  10

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...RIP CURRENT RISK until 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ Saturday for Coastal
     Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Saturday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MCDERMOTT
SHORT TERM...MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...MCDERMOTT
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...WOOL
HYDROLOGY...MOORE






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