Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 140639

239 AM EDT Tue Oct 14 2014


.Near Term [Through Today]...
A squall line moving into our westernmost zones at 06Z will
continue to sweep from west to east across the region today
bringing with it a threat for severe storms and heavy rainfall. A
tornado watch is in effect for all of our western zones including
portions of SW GA and the western Big Bend until 7 am EDT. This
watch will likely be extended eastward as the day progresses. By 9
am, the leading edge of the squall line should be near an Albany
to Tallahassee to Apalachicola line and east of our FA by early to
mid afternoon. The severe threat will end in the wake of the
squall line but rain chances won`t end until the passage of the
cold front.

The main severe weather threat continues to be damaging straight
line winds, with a few isolated tornadoes possible. The flash flood
threat will come from the potential for training convection from
south to north out ahead of the main squall line over areas that
have already seen several inches of rain.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Thursday]...
The cold front should be near TLH by 00Z Wednesday and completely
east of the area by 06-08Z. Even at this short time range, there are
timing differences of a few hours among the models. Evening PoPs
will range from categorical over the southeast FL Big Bend counties
to chance over the rest of the Big Bend and Southwest GA. A much
drier and cooler air mass will settle in behind the front to bring
some classic October weather to the region for Wednesday and
Thursday. Afternoon highs will actually be a couple of degrees below
normal, around 80 in FL with upper 70s to the north. Overnight lows
Wednesday night will drop several degrees below normal ranging from
the mid 50s at the coast to the upper 40s across the normally cooler
areas west of an ABY to TLH line.

.Long Term [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...
Dry weather is expected through the period with high pressure in
the wake of the strong cold front on Tuesday. Temperatures will
be within a few degrees of average for this time of year.


[Through 06Z Wednesday] Numerous showers and thunderstorms will
cross the area today ending from west to east from midday through
the early evening. MVFR conditions will be most common in
thunderstorms, but brief periods of IFR will also occur in the
heavier showers. Winds will also be quite gusty in storms. Strong
southerly winds will shift to the WNW behind a cold front during
the latter part of the period, with VFR conditions then


Small craft advisory conditions will continue today, but end with
the passage of a cold front. Moderate west to northwest winds will
then persist below headline criteria through Thursday with lighter
winds arriving for Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds over
the waters.


.Fire Weather...
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will end from west to east
later today and this evening as a strong cold front pushes through.
A cooler and much drier airmass will settle into the area for the
remainder of the week but Red Flag conditions are not expected.


Radar estimates and rain gages indicates that 1-2 inch rainfall
totals have been common from the western FL Big Bend west across the
FL Panhandle and north into Southeast AL. However, there have been a
few bands of higher amounts in the 5-7 inch range. These areas are
primed and any additional rainfall (which is expected) could very
well result in flash flooding. The most vulnerable counties are
southeast Walton, Washington, eastern Homes, western Jackson, Gulf,
western Franklin and southern Liberty. An additional 1-2 inches of
rainfall will be common across the area with locally higher amounts
up to 5 inches or so. The flash flood watch will remain in place.
While some of the flashier streams and creeks could see some sharp
rises, flooding of main stem rivers is not anticipated.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   83  55  80  50  80 /  90  40  10   0   0
Panama City   80  58  79  56  79 /  90  10   0   0   0
Dothan        80  52  77  49  78 /  80  10   0   0   0
Albany        80  54  78  50  79 /  90  30  10   0   0
Valdosta      82  58  79  50  79 /  90  70  10   0   0
Cross City    84  64  81  51  80 /  80  80  10   0   0
Apalachicola  82  58  78  55  79 / 100  20   0   0   0


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Calhoun-Central
     Walton-Coastal Bay-Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-Gadsden-
     Holmes-Inland Bay-Inland Franklin-Inland Gulf-Inland Walton-
     Jackson-Liberty-South Walton-Washington.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for Coastal Bay-
     Coastal Franklin-Coastal Gulf-South Walton.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Clay-Decatur-Early-

AL...Flash Flood Watch through this afternoon for Coffee-Dale-Geneva-

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for Apalachee
     Bay-Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola
     FL out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to
     Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.



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