Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 170658

258 AM EDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.Near Term [Through Today]...

With the upper level trof becoming well established over the region
today, pushing the stalled out Sfc boundary through the area as a
cold front, a gradual drying trend will begin from north to south
across the CWA. This will result in dewpoints dropping into the mid
to upper 60s to the north, and the upper 60s to lower 70s to the
south this afternoon, with much drier air working into the entire
region on Thursday. Rain chances will also be greatly reduced, with
no additional showers or storms expected across the NW 2/3 of the
CWA, and just 20-30% PoPs further to the SE. With plenty of
sunshine over most of the region by this afternoon, high temps
should range from 88 to 92 degrees.

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...

The upper level trough with axis along or near the eastern seaboard
will continue to deepen through the period with much drier air
overspreading the region through Thursday. Another weak frontal
boundary will push down from the north on Friday as well as an
increase in deep layer moisture as an upper low begins to close off
east of the NE FL/SE GA coast. Will reintroduce rain chances across
the area on Friday with the best chance (30-40%) across the coastal
waters and SE Big Bend. Despite the passage of the cold front
earlier this week, max temps will continue at or just above seasonal
levels. Lows both nights will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...

By Friday night, the mid level pattern begins to stagnate as models
show an upper low cutting off just south of the southeast U.S coast
as a weak ridge builds across the Mid Atlantic States. This type of
pattern will keep partly to mostly skies in place through the
weekend with moderate easterly flow. Low end rain chances can be
expected, especially across the eastern portions of the region.

Late Sunday and into Monday the pattern across the CONUS becomes
highly amplified with a deepening trough across the Eastern US
and a large ridge across the western states. As this pattern
amplifies, the models diverge in whether a cold front will make
its way into the Gulf Coast States and possibly beyond. The 16/12z
Euro stalls the boundary across our region as the main mid and
upper level support lifts out into New England whereas the 16/00z
and 16/12z GFS had some degree of frontal passage late in the
period. Climatology in late September would argue against a front
clearing the forecast area, so will lean closer on a solution
supported by the latest Euro for late in the period.


[Through 06Z Thursday]

[Through 12Z Thursday] The canopy of mid-upper level cloudiness is
expected to keep TLH and ECP at VFR levels overnight, but decreasing
clouds could allow DHN and ABY to drop to MVFR level Vis, with
IFR-LIFR conditions possible at VLD towards morning. Once these
restrictions are lifted by 14Z, VFR conditions with light winds are
expected at all the terminals through the remainder of the period.



Relatively light winds and low seas are expected across the marine
area through the remainder of the week. Winds will shift to easterly
and increase to moderate levels on Saturday as high pressure builds
down the Atlantic seaboard.


.Fire Weather...

Despite the gradual influx of significantly drier air into the
region, which will peak on Thursday afternoon, relative humidities
and other fire weather parameters are not expected to approach Red
Flag levels through the period.



Slow moving storms will continue to deliver locally heavy rainfall
across the region through today. Localized rainfall amounts of 3
to 4 inches could cause minor flooding of low lying areas. This
rainfall will cause some rises of the smaller creeks and streams,
though all rivers should remain well below flood stage.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   91  69  92  68  89 /  20  10  10  10  20
Panama City   89  71  90  71  86 /  10  10  10  10  20
Dothan        91  66  89  65  89 /  10  10   0  10  20
Albany        91  66  89  66  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
Valdosta      90  67  92  66  88 /  10  10  10  10  20
Cross City    88  70  92  69  88 /  30  10  10  10  30
Apalachicola  88  74  89  73  85 /  20  10  10  10  20


.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...




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